Member Info for bald_eagle

"Pension managers are not wet behind the ears amateurs (or at least they're not supposed to be) and everybody with an iota of financial knowledge understands and appreciates that with leverage comes risk."
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I reckon similar things were said in 2008 after the subprime mortgage crisis and here we are facing similar systemic risks. But this time we have regulators who are trained to spot those risks and whose main job is to protect the financial system. It doesn't bode well for other highly regulated industries....and we have a government that sees the ability to cut red tape & deregulate as a post 2020 benefit.
I always thought the pension industry was boring & safe...how wrong was I?!

".....It (LDI) was also championed by the investment industry, with firms such as BlackRock and Legal & General making huge sums of money in the process. Legal & General alone has profited by an estimated £80 million a year from its 42 per cent share of Britain’s LDI market.....The salesmen who foisted them upon the industry must face a reckoning."
[Guy Adams for the Daily Mail]

The journalist seems to be blaming everybody except the Tories for the mess....absolutely no mention that Tories have been in power for over 10 years and allowed the risks to increase.
Makes me wonder if this 'journalist' (Guy Adams) has ever warned his readers about the LDI danger before....I doubt it!!

"The only way is UP Now!"
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If only investing was that easy.

....nailed his colours to the mast of a very leaky vessel (which may now be holed below the waterline). I'm sure copper bottomed brass monkeys are also involved somehow!!

I don't know why he agreed to Trussonomics, it was obviously tinged with madness & doomed to fail....especially the way they tried to do it. For an intelligent bloke (alledgedly) he nailed his colours to colours to a very leaky vessel.

I wonder if he had a bet that he would be sacked today....they needed a scapegoat. Quite a big head to roll. There will be ramifications for Truss.

I'm not sure quite what to expect today. The market has 'obviously' factored in a reversal of at least some of the more contentious elements of the mini-budget. But that still leaves huge question of credibility for Truss government. Trussonomics was short but not so sweet....a rebranded version is probably on the whiteboard in Professor Minford's Cardiff University office as we speak.....2+2=£47,000,000,000....simples!!

The pension fund administrators will want to share the pain of the LDI hit, even if they technically have no one to litigate. And LGEN & similar companies may feel obliged to 'help out' in order to keep them happy and do business with them in the future.
This isn't simply a case of 'buyer beware' but more "you never said the gun was loaded, I hold you partially responsible for letting me pull the trigger!!"

"I managed to Dump lng pre div 282p...."
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Nicknaim, 'liquified natural gas' (lng)?!

Just figured it out. You mean 'Legal & General'...aka LGEN....aka l&g....aka 'legal nd general' (lng)....aka lag....I sometimes hate acronyms!!

So you sold at 282p...sensible move.

"The BOE buying a small amount of gilts currently is not an economic crisis"
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It does feel like it has the potential for an economic crisis....especially if it is mishandled.
It isn't a crisis at the moment but it is causing people nervous twitches....if you aren't a little bit concerned that is interesting too.

"The rns statement from the main man Nig, still can’t appease the masses, who think
they know more than the CEO."
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The issue is that the CEO knows hopefully where the bodies are buried but rarely gives investors a map with 'X' on where to dig.....especially if they were the ones who hid the bodies. If it is the previous CEO's fault then they are usually 'happy' to clear the decks....funny that.
I'm sure people thought Robert Maxwell was a stalwart & excellent CEO.

"Makes no difference ramping or deramping to the SP"
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I'm not sure that is true all the time....there have been instances where malicious information (whether true, false or half-truths) has been spread virally on social media and influenced investors & share prices.

"Or is the real reason for the government bond price falls simply that reality is setting on on the massive UK gov debt and investors simply concerned the UK can't simply work it's way out of it without tax rises and spending cuts?"
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I reckon it is the dawning realisation that all the halfway 'sensible' people in the Tory have 'left the room' and we now have people in control who truly believe that one can construct an ecomonic policy based on the fervent belief that if you wish for something to happen realy, truly, deeply that it will inevitably happen.....I suppose it dates back to a belief in the tooth-fairy, father christmas and most recently Brexit promises. I think the financial markets struggle to follow that economic concept (the Professor Minford paradigm)....hence why they rather like forecasts and 'real' data.
Peter Pan politcs: "I do believe in Fairies, I do, I do. I do believe in Fairies, I do, I do!!"....whilst Boris dances past in a pink TuTu!!!
PMQ's has gone to pot.

" Maybe I am being paranoid, but tinterweb is nothing if not prone to abuse by bots and malactors."
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pickedpeck, you don't have paranoia. There is a growing industry and technology aimed at controlling the behaviour of investors. It has always been the case....when we go into any shop we are assaulted with marketing ploys & manipulation...that 'incredible' offer that is just about to end (FOMO). The problem facing investors is that the science behind the manipulation is getting better and the technology more sophisticated.
Some people it is easy to spot and they can be filtered or ignored. They aren't the 'dangerous' ones.
Remember a few months back the SP was over 280p and some financial journalists (Motley fool amongst them) were telling investors to buy.....supported by some 'investors' on here. Now that was a concerted effort IMO. The few sensible people were saying they were selling and going into cash....they have proved correct!
It wasn't hard to see the coming storm IMO. But I have no idea where or when it will end.....hence why 180p may be pessimistic. I wish I knew. But I am more comfortable investing in LGEN at circa 215p than I was at circa 270p. But that is just me!!

"The UK economy unexpectedly shrank in August, strengthening predictions that it will fall into a recession. The surprise 0.3% drop came as factories and consumer-facing businesses struggled...." [from the BBC]
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Would this be classed as 'data'?.....only caveat is my source is the BBC, those woke Pimms-quaffing commies!!

Reader61, I think perhaps things might have moved on from 'solely' the risk to pension funds. Personally I would be astounded if the pension funds had not de-risked their exposure to LDI's in the brief period of shelter given them by the BoE intervention....it would be scandalous for the pension fund administrators to have sat & done nothing. So the 'problem' has probably shifted elsewhere....mortgage rates and the housing market my guess (and it is a guess).

"It does look rather like a concerted effort to create negative sentiment. "
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PickedPeck, human psychology, which we know plays a large part in investing. Perhaps it is a sign of autumn when the days start to close in and the doomsters, gloomsters & naysayers come out of the summertime hibernation. Although to be fair they do have a lot of adverse 'data' to feed their scepticism.
I placed a trade plan to buy at 205p on 29th September that triggered today. But never expected it to reach this price after the rise to 233p. Crazy times but I thought the BoE would ride to the rescue again....but government seems to have capitulated & BoE have said "You're on your own". I wonder who will blink first. Not sure who they will blame....Putin or the anti-growth coalition...probably both.

"Risk markets are in gentle sell-off mode right now...."
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NormaStits, hopefully things aren't heading towards a cliff edge. But there was talk last week about contagion to other 'weaker' markets, although it does beg the question how we got in this mess. Something or somebody has to steady the ship and soon. Cannot see Kwasi going to America helping...a rat leaving the copper bottomed dinghy. Also Therese Coffee (two sugars) interview yesterday was a car crash. Plus I haven't seen Liz for a few days, I wonder if she has any hair left having pulled it all out. Things are going swimmingly!!
The cliff edge announcement that BoE will end their support for bonds on Friday 'no matter what' has me worried. Russian roulette with hedge funds is a game they don't want to play.

"Just be careful to support wild generalisations with some data...."
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Thronegames, isn't that like saying one cannot comment on anything unless it has happened....like Brexit for instance.
Pre-2020 : "You cannot say that Brexit will be terrible for the economy because there is no data to support that argument"
Post-2020: "You can now say that Brexit was a really bad idea that has proven to be bad for the economy but it's too late now because we have left. Why didn't you say anything earlier?!!"
IMO it is fair comment to say that LGEN and other companies that were involved in LDI selling MAY be sued by the pension funds. It MAY not happen and the scale may be tiny IF it does happen but it is a possibility. I would not be surprised if it does happen but there is no data to support my opinion. Same as there was no data to support my views on Brexit....just a hunch.

I too believe that. naysayers and doubters. should come and. join the growth coalition. This is a storm in a hiccup. Things. will blow over. Christmas will be uninterrupted. The lights will stay. on. Even if I have to make the electricity. myself