Member Info for Balanced66

Hi Hunsen

The passage you have highlighted mentions getting the $2.5m on notification that Orphan Drug Status has been granted by FDA so it won't be on first sales unless ODS has been granted as well.

The last earnings call from Eton mentioned they are selling.

Thanks ihowells. I don't post as often now so hence the delay in responding. With SAV it is focusing on Spodumene rather than lithium carbonate. Spodumene prices are low less than $1000 at the moment but picking up whereas LC is near $10000 per tonne.

I'm after a LC type company.

BCN looks good but some way away to first production. Suppose I'm quite fussy! There is also some disquiet about the pollution in mining hard rock lithium and going forward more greener alternatives may be favoured except those existing projects so BCN should be ok. Thanks for the ideas.

Bojo is right there are new minerals and chemicals being mentioned all the time as future alternatives for EVs but those may be a few years away from development of they pass the testing and trials.

https://m.miningweekly.com/article/commodities-of-the-future-to-boom-over-20-year-horizon-2021-04-21/rep_id:5582?__twitter_impression=true&s=09

https://m.miningweekly.com/article/commodities-of-the-future-to-boom-over-20-year-horizon-2021-04-21/rep_id:5582?__twitter_impression=true&s=09

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/market-news/directors-dealings/14941865

I like this as well but like you wonder whether it's too late to jump on board now.

What I found interesting was to compare Neo Lithium with Australian Galaxy Resources. Both with very similar projects and reserves/resources yet GR has a much bigger market cap. GR looks expensive now so I'm leaving that. The lowe market cap of NL may be explained by it being listed on 3 stock markets including German one and GR I think is only on one. If there is stock also on another exchange then I think when profits are reported some of those are attributed or shared with the holders on the other exchange(s). I could be wrong but that is my understanding. GR has the full cash available for its Stage 1 development whereas NL needs to raise more in the sum of $260m US dollars.

Upto Stage 1 GR has a pre-tax NPV of $809 US dollars and NL $1.14B US dollars.

The need for a huge future financing may be holding NL back.

NL is more advanced and ahead with its plans compared to GR.

Don't know where I was late last year when these could be bought for much cheaper.

I'm going to hold off and if there is a correction then consider a purchase. But I've probably got everything I wanted to buy for now with no funds left for anything else so will just leave it probably.

I like Next Source but no funds now so will review things again in future. I have ATM and if they can process lithium then that might have to be my lithium play as as tin.

A pure lithium producer/near term producer would have been good to have as part of pf. May get an opportunity later to buy at better prices.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/exclusive-china-opens-its-borders-billions-dollars-gold-imports-sources-2021-04-16/

One set of inflation figures don't make inflation. Just posted for information but I'm prepared for higher inflation if it comes through gold and commodity stocks and I have a few value investing type shares. Still holding on to my high conviction biotech/growth stocks.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jsblokland/status/1381948166833049606?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Thanks for that Bojo. Coco Cola has underperformed the S&P 500 for a very long time. Maybe it's time to deliver share price growth has come? It would depend on projected earnings growth and the value seen in the shares.

I do think it's going to get harder to make money going forward so new strategies might need to be deployed. They do say in the markets that something works for so long and then no longer does.

Wonder if it is now time for the value stocks to shine.

My own view about biotechs and I don't have the time in the markets to be sure is that sectors tend to move together but there is always room for stock pickers to outperform. So excellent prospects with lower risk are likely to stand their ground or outperform compared with others with not so great prospects.

I personally am staying away from the bubble valuations seen in stocks like Tesla etc.

Nicely summed up.

https://youtu.be/L6DX5To9eXU

Just to clarify we are a growth stock and value type investors would also be happy to invest here imo therefore best of both worlds!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-13/marko-kolanovic-says-markets-may-be-at-long-term-turning-point?utm_medium=social&utm_content=markets&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets

There's a shift to Benjamin Graham value type stocks so happy to hold UOG and I believe value will soon be recognised.

I can't read that as needs subscription.

But that has been my view for a couple of months or so now.

Maybe reasonably valued growth stocks will continue to do well but things like Tesla etc. may suffer and so Nasdaq also? Or the other better value Nasdaq stocks (if there are any!) may come to the fore to support the Nasdaq index?

There is definitely a rotation out of growth to value that has been happening for past few months - question is it likely to continue. Probably, especially if inflation starts to increase.

Just my personal views. Other comments welcome and good value stock ideas!

For those who have been investing over long term - how will biotechs fare in this new environment?

Noel Borg has a good following and has been making exceptional returns from trading.

His thoughts on Ncyt if you click on the Dropbox link he's done a video:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Borg74/status/1381318109215272962

Yes the advice from Nolupus has always been to manage risk and derisk before things like drug trial results and/or important announcements. This was one of the things that Eva got into dispute with Nolupus about as I understand following such advice to derisk in SNG before Phase 2 data and Eva then using the successful trial to suggest people should have remained fully invested. Very high risk approach and as the Nova announcement has shown doesn't always pay off and hurts more if the allocation of funds have not been sensible.

I also give a warning about such a big drop if the contract was not renewed and suggested looking at charts if a buy was contemplated and it did drop intra day after my post to low 600s I believe around the 24th February so the charts may have shown the trend or I suggested taking a small stake.

Incidentally, I did also mention UOG on this board on the same day and it finished at 3.83p that day and could have been bought a few days later for around 3.45p. UOG went to 6pish recently so more than a 60% increase in a short time.

"Balanced66

Posted in: 0DTT

Posts: 1,100

Price: 1.74

No Opinion

RE: NCYT18 Feb 2021 09:35
Willibo

Nxct have excellent management and often that is sufficient to navigate the choppy waters and increase shareholder value.

It is a very volatile share so you have to be prepared for the ups and downs, brilliant for traders though.

I think the volatility will lessen when there us more assurance over future revenues and evidence of actual movement in the non covid field. Then again I think covid is going to keep providing them with a big enough income for the next 12 months at least and it will be great if the Government extend phase 1 and/or take up phase 2 of their contract this will give a boost to the share price short term.

I think long term it will do well if it can develop non covid revenues and ot has the cash now to do so. It might then start being valued at a higher pe multiple and if it had a regular profit of anywhere near half what it is making now it would probably be valued in the several billions.

So there is uncertainty at the moment with them but securing some more government contracts will remove some of this uncertainty. I have a free stake now in my pension which I'll leave and see where it is in 5 years time.

Price at the moment - could be a good entry point but you would need to look at things like support levels etc all that charting stuff I suppose or just take a small stake?"
Balanced66

Posted in: 0DTT

Posts: 1,100

Price: 1.74

No Opinion

RE: NCYT18 Feb 2021 09:53
Also if the government don't renew anything then there could be a biggish drop in the share price and it might take some time for it to recover! However the signs are that the government is likely to extend/renew as Promate is being rolled out in hospitals and its recent SNPsig is likely to be taken up/needed by the government to assess variant risks and levels etc

Bojo

I haven't forgotten. I will try and look at the company in more detail and get back to you. Might be next week though.

I guess I won't be winning this month's competition!

All about risk management. My holdings were small. I did manage to sell 5.50-5.90. Was planning to hold the stake in the pension but not expecting litigation knew they may not get phase 2. It's probably going to bob along now for some time - what held it back was predictability of earnings and with today's RNS the unpredictability has been compounded! Always take over possibility but I'm not waiting for that.

I did set out these risks in an earlier post from 1-2 months ago or so.

Checked my 3 accounts now (1 is sons) and it has hardly made a dent - they were about 2-3% of my pf.

I only recently started looking elsewhere than just gold miners.

Wish I had done it before - just got blinkered with the gold miners.

Someone mentioned to me Galaxy Resources an Australian listed green lithium company. Our own Cornish Lithium is another but they are not listed and far behind it seems. In this game I think the winners will also be those producing first as lithium prices may peak a few years down the road.

Anyway, came across this company and it looks really good still some further work to do before it starts producing commercially. I am still doing further research into it but thought I would mention it now for any other views. Bojo will probably have some views on it?

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/939025/neo-lithium-is-canaccord-s-top-pick-among-lithium-developers-lifts-target-price-939025.html

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/929803/neo-lithium-advancing-one-of-the-world-s-best-lithium-brine-projects-towards-final-feasibility-929803.html

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20201124-how-geothermal-lithium-could-revolutionise-green-energy

I was in agy a couple of times last year sold for profit but never anywhere near the top - still trying to improve my trading skills which will help in these kind of situations to maximise profits!

What's happening with US Scoredagainsteps?

There was a post by V.Lodge on 12/07/20 on the agy board which summed up the position from his point of view. He seemed to know the company well.

I largely sold due to lack of real progress. The sales of the products will support the R&D and there will be a lot of R&D and trials in future so cash may be used up for those company has said it will be using cash for trials.

I wasn't also happy with the length of time it was all taking. We know biotech is slow but they seemed to have no urgency to progress things along. So the grass phase 3 is in 2 stages and after the first stage there is a readout of data before next stage starts - could be 1.5-3 years before results are known?

The peanut allergy vaccine - they have been talking about that for years and I think it's still not started phase 1! Could be another 7-10 years before that is approved if it goes all the way.

Also, I never looked into it properly but as V.Lodge mentioned "many countries are starting to regulate these products and banning them from being sold without clinical studies supporting their claims. Italy has already done that to name one, and Germany is heading that same direction, how many will be next?" So according to this post and I do recall seeing it mentioned somewhere else its current products for sale will need further studies supporting their claims and use. So a lot of work potentially for the company to do.

They were re-evaluating last year the Birch trial failure so there may be more trials coming there.

It was all too slow progress for me so I sold.

But this is my view only and I could be wrong and it doesn't mean you can't make money on the share as the technical analysis might be favourable and it has held 20p for a while now.

Plus there should be positive newsflow going forward on the grass trial which should support the share price.

Hope it works out for you Scoredagainsteps and ATB.