Member Info for Balanced66

Morning Mad

I don't use Level 2 but came across this news announcement which suggests you can get L2:

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AFN/addition-of-aquis-exchange-data-to-advfn-level-2/14435581?lang=en

https://www.lse.co.uk/Level2SharePrice.asp?shareprice=AQX&share=Aquis-Exchange

The problem is that a lot of brokers don't yet offer dealing on this exchange which needs to change:

chris akers (@sportschris) Tweeted:
Will the following brokers and platforms please start offering their private clients the ability to trade in Aquis Stock Exchange stocks #AQSE with immediate effect with live prices. @HLInvest @AJBellYouinvest @ii_couk @********** @HalifaxBank @IGCom @ETXCapital https://twitter.com/sportschris/status/1370677456856813569?s=20

I don't follow Chris Asker's but a lot of pi's are following his every move to make money?

Fekir

Feel your pain. I had a holding a few months ago. It was only around 2% or so I think of pf. Think I bought around 3.3 and sold around 2.67. I agree with the advice given so far. I wouldn't put anymore money in it. It's very speculative and the fact that the share price has been declining all this time is a sign that the company hasn't delivered much to date - I remember the frustrated holders on the Lse BB. It might just be throwing good money after bad.

I didn't buy it on fundamentals. I was watching all these covid stocks going up and then came across Nfx and it had dropped to the near low for the year (bought last year). It also mentioned a drug program that had potential for covid use/development and I thought this one would go up a lot like the other ones in covid space had! How wrong I was. It did go up around 25-30% for a few minutes and then in the days after I think it did another 20% or so. I was waiting for the big increases and as my stake was small thought I would hold on. But after November and vaccine news it wasn't really going anywhere and it became clear to me that covid wasn't really the focus of the company as far as I could tell. Plus the advice is that if the story changes then sell. I had invested for the covid aspect and that wasn't happening (not yet at least) so I sold and took the small loss.

I'm not the best trader and don't always come out well in this situations but I think luckily I am still up on my trading due to the Arix Bio trade where I made 50% on a 10% stake in less than an hour.

I will stay on the whole with the approach of looking for undervalued companies as that has worked out better for me to date. I'm keen to learn and assimilate new approaches though.

One experienced trader I was chatting to uses all the trading tools such as Fibonacci retracements, ABC reversals, trend lines etc. All interestimg stuff and it works for him he was up over 30% since the start of the year and did about 60% in one of his accounts last year. I will look into that method of trading in future hopefully.

I got a tiny holding in Truspine last year - currently well down! But it's only punting money and will come back if they do lodge submission with FDA and it gets approval. It's spine device product is a disruptive tech so could be big.

Tiny company think it is under £10m now. I only learnt about it through my Prim holding.

Aquis is not a liquid a market as Aim which has its own liquidity issues sometimes. I had to do telephone dealing through HL not sure if that's the same with many of the other stocks there.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/03/12/rishi-sunak-says-return-normal-office-working-pandemic-will/

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Europe-Cant-Keep-Up-With-Demand-For-Battery-Metals.html

The CEO confirmed in the interview when the presenter said the old Tullow board were on the Board of UOG that he wanted to take the company to mid cap status. The presenter mentioned Tulllw which had come from a low base to a £752m mc.

CEO said that there was so much upside from Egypt without stepping outside and the comparison with the high price paid by Cairn was said to be valid as it shows the quality of the Egyptian assets imo. CEO said the Company spent 2 years and screening to identify the absolute best project in Egypt and they have very strict criteria for quality of assets - which other company spends 2 years before choosing assets?

He said there was no need to hard sell UOG as it had a quality Board of Directors punching above their weight, robust production base, performing assets and cashflow.

"We are not relying on the equity market to grow our business we have a HUGE ( caps because if you listen to the webinar CEO actually stressed the word huge when he said it) amount of organic growth come out of the existing asset base that we don't need have to step outside of the business to grow it....and more importantly all of the work and all of the newsflow from the previous slides is fully funded from existing cash flow." Brilliant which other O&G companies can give this assurance? This point about funding future programs from existing cashflow wad emphasised at twice so no dilution like the other O&G companies out there.

Forecasts for profits are likely to be exceeded because of new wells expected to come online.

Biotechboy you have bought in towards what has been the average price over the last 12 months so a good entry point. My first purchase was I think around 72p early last year but with subsequent purchases I am averaging around 63pish in the SIPP.

With markets talking about overvalued tech we unfairly fall when the Nasdaq suffers big. But although there is a tech and health focus our valuations are at the conservative book values so if anything we are a bargain buy - think we may have been in Simon Thompson's bargain portfolio? So we are not overvalued tech but fall more within the "value" type investments that value investors look for.

As you say diversification is built in and a number of the businesses are getting to a decent size now. Should be exciting times ahead and good growth from now to the the next few years and beyond. Also a quality management team.

Quality stock. One to just lock away for a few years I reckon. Also interesting with this one compared to other similar investment type companies is the partnerships being entered into with each investee company and/or the external funding from outside investors. With a lot of investment type companies it is the vct or investment company that provides a lot of the ongoing funding. To get external funding is another validation of the tech.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/e2977207-9232-47e8-b68f-2452f3163e02

With the renewed concerns over the high valuations of some tech and growth stocks Prim can keep both camps happy and it should be seen as a safe haven for one's money in these turbulent times.

We have growth stock investments in the investment portfolio and we have a net asset value much higher than the market cap. Not many pure Benjamin Graham type investments out there but this surely has to be one.

Richemondo

Almost definitely worth more than the funding rounds. Funding rounds are for private companies. When there is an IPO/ sale most companies last funding round valuations prove to be very conservative. Many examples of this if you look for them.

Good to increase the stake here I thought the original investment was small compared to the quality of the business and it's prospects.

Although not an obvious renewables type investment and we are awaiting any investment in that sector etc. the Fresho investment is in a sector of growing concern and which will remain a concern for the foreseeable future - that of maximising the earth's resources and preventing food waste; it is therefore linked to the ESG investing movement and is a type of renewables investment imo if one of the main concerns of renewables investments is to prevent global warming etc.

From Fresho website:

"Our purpose

Around the world, roughly one third of the food that is grown, caught and manufactured ends up as wastage. That equates to 1.3 billion tonnes in the food industry alone each year. And that doesn’t sit well with us. That’s why reducing food wastage is at the heart of what we do, and what drove us to create our industry-leading technology.

Through our simple, automated, paperless software we help food businesses like yours become more efficient, saving time and money and reducing wastage at the source."

https://www.goodhousekeeping.com/uk/house-and-home/household-advice/a35781651/reduce-food-waste/

https://ec.europa.eu/food/safety/food_waste_en :

"Wasting food is not only an ethical and economic issue but it also depletes the environment of limited natural resources. By reducing food losses and waste to help achieve Sustainable Development Goals (notably SDG Target 12.3), we can also:

support the fight against climate change (food waste alone generates about 8% of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions (FAO, 2015))
save nutritious food for redistribution to those in need, helping to eradicate hunger and malnutrition (some 33 million people in the EU cannot afford a quality meal every second day (Eurostat, 2018))
save money for farmers, companies and households."

Yes they must realise that with the expected Chronocort approval which on balance of probabilities is likely to be granted, that these prices may never ever be seen again.

Certainly the valuation of the company will increase with another approved drug so these share price levels are unlikely to be seen again.

Hi Bojo

Thanks for that. I don't use Twitter very often other than when I get get sent links! I find it isn't very user friendly. Very interesting article. We can see what is likely to come with commodities demand.

I'm holding on tightly to my BMN shares. I think the story is just starting here even though long suffering shareholders' patience might be running out. I do believe there is a lot more to come from the company. Sometimes people forget that they own shares in real businesses and not fairy tale ones and so every business will hit challenges now and then. Not that I think that there are any stumbling blocks in the way it's just reading the boards sometimes and people showing little patience. We might all be looking back in a year or two and thinking how cheap a lot of these equity commodity stocks were. Worth spreading out holdings among a few to reduce risk.

Cheers

ATB.

https://youtu.be/9wl3N_4Zzvc

Thought this was interesting talks about having gold and copper together which we do.

Nice to build up and put some strong foundations down for the expected share price increases.

Hi 1509

My 5 choices:

1. Dnl - 56p - if gets Chronocort approval then should be a lot higher by year end.
2. Polx - 66.50p - we should know if drug/device combo approved by October so if positive shares should be higher. From what I have read no other similar product around so could get good market share.
3. UOG - 4.33p - one of the best if not the best O&G play at moment (I haven't looked at many others but can't imagine anything better - 12 months time it's net profit could be close to its market cap! 3 producing wells doing over 3000 boepd, 35 drill targets funded from revenues, low debt levels. Understand also £2.8 cash payment to be received in April from previous sale of asset and also Jamaica prospect if they can get a farm in will be a further share price catalyst. Oil price barring any major jolts such as covid resurgence likely to stay strong or higher; $70 dollars might be broken next week.
4. Prim - 4.05p - has around £5 million cash almost same as mc plus about the same money invested in pf of unlisted companies. Should make steady progress. Looking to do a major investment(s) by way of an RTO maybe? As the Director also 20% odd shareholder has set up limited shell companies called Spac investments etc. Not sure what the intention is there maybe once investment is in ltd. shell companies do an IPO? All speculation but something brewing for sure. Also depends on whether market likes what is Rto'd/new investments so a wait and see.
5. Gwmo - 0.24p - the wildcard - gold and copper explorer and might be producing small amounts of gold soon.

I like Mxct but will leave that one out. Also AST someone suggested it here - I have 2 small stakes you never know the Slovenian govt may pay them over £20m as part of a settlement. Speculative but could pay off big time. Only 5 allowed so leaving these 2 out.

Thanks for the effort.

https://event.webinarjam.com/register/945/5vv20b3vp?j=698606&sfmc_sub=207589499&l=86_HTML&u=38515100&mid=100009383&jb=80

Scoredagainsteps

I like everyone here is hoping for Chronocort approval.

I think it's just general market nerves. Most tech/biotech is down.

There were some massive sells today though? Is that a fund derisking?

I sold another share this morning to increase my stake. Now just over 10% in the pension. I rarely go over 10% it's one of my rules. But I wanted to increase my O&G exposure and no better way to do so imo.

This is one of the best investments in the market at the moment.

Accept that Oxford Nanopore and Exscentia specialisms are different. The point I was trying to make is that it is very unlikely that the pre IPO funding valuation at the funding raises is reliable when the company later IPO's or is sold. This is on the cautious view:

"Others have adopted a more cautious view, with Jefferies analyst Ken Rumph suggesting a £4.5bn valuation could be more realistic. That price tag would still be significantly higher than its £1.7bn valuation at its last funding round late last year. With such a major prize up for grabs it is no surprise that various stock exchanges have launched a charm offensive."

Here is another example of book valuation as of only Sept 2020 and actual sale achieved for Merc (I don't hold):

"The sale results in a realised gain of £14.6million above Oxgene's £16.1million direct investment holding value as at 30 September 2020. The sale has generated a 5x return on Mercia's direct investment cost of £6.1million and a 51% internal rate of return ("IRR")."

Now for a market leader like Exscentia I would think the multiple that would be achieved would be higher than achieved by Merc and the Oxford Nanopore is probably the best comparison of those higher valuations which may be achieved in any IPO as you are comparing 2 companies who are market leaders or the major players in their respective fields. All imo dyor.