RE: Waiting !19 Oct 2020 16:36
yes Steve, very true indeed! I know who I would prefer to follow..gearing up for tens of thousands of tests a month too, according to Mr Sales the Genomic chap!
I think Align had this at 39p with just 10k tests a month. What if they do 20/30/40k a month?
just in case anyone missed the Align research note; does NOT include Clarigene sales,
Potential figures
We feel we have enough basic information to give some broad figures on the potential of the firm’s
testing services only (not sales of Clarigene™ kits) and have made some assumptions using data from
several sources. Firstly, we believe that in the medium term Yourgene has the potential to build up
testing capacity at its laboratories to 10,000 a month. Caxton’s website is currently pricing the tests
for employers, administered by a health professional provided by Yourgene, at between £130 and
£150 per test, dependent on volumes.
Taking the mid-range of £140 we assume that Caxton takes a 50% cut of the sales price. At a typical
margin of 60% Yourgene would then be making a net contribution from each test of £42. Multiplied
by the 10,000 a month testing capacity gives the potential for an additional £420,000 contribution to
operating profits on a monthly basis, or just over £5 million if annualised. Adding this into our DCF
model from 2022 onwards (keeping all other assumptions consistent) would add an additional
13.04p to our target price.
A scenario on the low side, assuming 5,000 tests a month would see additional annualised operating
profits of £2.52 million, which added to the model as above gives another 6.52p of value per share.
Alternatively, a high side scenario of 15,000 tests a month gives additional annual profits of £7.56
million and adds 19.55p per share to the valuation.
We point out that these figures are illustrative only, with concrete data on demand levels currently
unavailable. It is also unclear as to how demand for COVID testing will play out over the next few
years. While the finding of a viable vaccine may reduce demand, we expect that testing will continue
to be needed in many contexts, especially employment, to identify individuals who are currently
infected and to help reduce the spread of the virus.