Member Info for bakky

don't know about 'rose coloured specs' but some need to get their head out of the clouds!! Ygen are upto capacity atm and are doubling/tripling this capacity as we speak. So why did anyone expect anything more?? Also, why do people compare to NCYT et al, completely bonkers some folk!! Anyway hopefully said 'dreamers' have/will departed, that's one very good thing to come out of this update!!

Cooper, still being evaluated I expect as no rns to confirm anything. I think it's 10 in total with 8 being abroad. Maybe the TU will clarify things a bit more.

yes NiptSteve, precisely my point. Any contract will be of moderate value unless we can offer much much bigger capacity. Of course we could always use manufacturing partners to help out with hopefully big numbers. Every other supplier is doing just that!

anyone got any thoughts on what to expect regards a potential contract value ? Personally I am not expecting too much for a couple of reasons. One being we are only recruiting for a six month period, and secondly we don't have too much spare inhouse capacity to offer taking into account the private stuff. I know we are working two shifts but even so we are only a relatively small outfit. I suppose what I'm getting at is we won't get massive numbers like say Ncyt or one or two others. I can't imagine many being too impressed if we get something like £2/3 million deal.

I think we're well aware it's not all profit Burton. We won't know about the figures until we get results at year end. Align research note reckons that out of a £130 Caxton test around £42 comes to Ygen. What they pay out of that figure we don't know yet. That of course is the private end of things, govt work pricing will be a bit keener one would think. Either way it's all good 'extra' income!

back to where it was Sept 2019.. Hopefully it will stabilise a bit now. News next week methinks!

I think we can all agree that the trend for Ygen is very much up, up and away! It's also worth noting it's a pretty good defensive stock too in these pandemic, and projected 'market crash' days. Imo it's as 'safe as houses' you can get right now.

pacman yes absolutely! It's fair to say Ygen is a brilliant prospect in the coming weeks, months and years. It is still very much under the radar, so now is the time to buy imo.
Cooper; the 500k capacity is for the manufacture of the test only, so it would work out at circa 160/170k a month from when he first said it in Sept.
Testing capacity in Oct is still only about 10k as projected. Going forward is now what counts. We will have the capacity for many more of both, but we will have to outsource some of it too.

pacman, yes totally agree with that!

sorry to pi ss on everyone's chips, but imo we won't be at £1 a share anytime soon. Revenue will need to be into many hundreds of millions with tens of millions of profit first. It's anyone's guess when/if that ever happens but it won't be for a while. You only have to look at what NCYT have/are doing and their mcap is still 'only' £843m
As I said I hope I'm wrong, but we need to be realistic too so some don't get too disappointed!!

Cooper. but we won't be getting £150 though. Align gives a figure of £42 for Ygen per test. Can't remember if that's from Caxton's prices? Not too sure if/how many we do directly to customers but it's probably mainly through a third party like Recova or Mediskills.

pacman, I think he's correct not to jeopardise the core business. He's explained Covid is 'adjacency' revenue but that's not to say they are standing still. It's not quite as easy as people think to ramp up production, especially in such a short timescale, Recruitment will be the most problematic for them. The calibre of people they want are not two a penny are they?
They say they are doing slightly more than 10k but I don't think it will be many more atm. However going forward could well be a different animal when they have fully recruited and govt work comes onboard.
I won't be disappointed if they are at or just above 10k for Oct, anything else is a big bonus.
I hope that I'm wrong and they will be ' blowing the doors off' very soon!

Cooper, not sure how you get Ygen to £720m+ mcap with 30k+ tests. I would imagine that the majority will be govt testing, which will be much lower prices. They are only planning for 6 months too by the looks of it. I know it could well be longer but that's it atm. If the test numbers are much bigger then we have to outsource and our cut becomes smaller again.

Sailplane, Align research have done some figures and have a number of circa £42 a test for Ygen in the private sector. Maybe the prices have come down a bit since then, but still good numbers. The govt work will obviously be much less but we don't know what that figure is. The govt say they hope to get a 15 minute saliva test by xmas. That is the way testing is going ( Bhavika mentioned in the webinar) even though atm it's less accurate. Let's hope the 'team' at Ygen can get something sorted in that direction too!

looking a bit further out I really do hope they can get non machine rapid saliva test up and running. I think that is what the nhs/govt will want as the 'gold' standard if it can be done. A big ask but you never know! I wonder what that faster test for Heathrow Goggins is on about comes to anything.

it certainly seems we are primed for govt/nhs work very soon. The big question is how much of it? We already have partnerships set up to help cope with demand it seems so they must know plenty is available. Would be great to get a decent govt contract for the next 2.5 years .

I hope we don't get a late rns or worse an after hours today!

as was mentioned in the webinar, what's the point of taking these rapid tests at Heathrow or wherever if many countries don't accept or recognise them? Many won't know and will take one of these rapid tests at Heathrow thinking all is well, then get to their destinations to be told you can't come in because you need a PCR test. Going to be chaos I think for some.

Temuchin, they couldn't afford it! They haven't got hundreds of millions spare just yet, lol. Let's just see what net profits they make out of all this as they outsource one hell of a lot.

Sorcerer, it seems they think it may be difficult to get accuracy with the rapid saliva test (over 90%).It hasn't stopped everyone else bull****ting about their accuracy claims.