Member Info for badshah13

This article estimates fair value around £15..! That would be fun..

An Intrinsic Calculation For Oxford Biomedica plc (LON:OXB) Suggests It's 47% Undervalued https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/intrinsic-calculation-oxford-biomedica-plc-050409236.html

I reckon trading would have to be suspended until EQT confirms either way. Else the price could rocket and the negotiations might get even difficult.

Expecting a suspension RNS this morning.

I believe Aviva acquired its shares at prices above £10 several years ago, while the Serum Institute invested at around £15 in September 2021. As a result, a £10 offer may not be particularly attractive to either party. That said, the Serum Institute invested at an all-time high and held only a 3.9% stake at the time (% would be lower now), giving it limited influence over the vote on any takeover deal.

Although no mention of the offer price in the RNS, there will be a premium to the current SP. So expect this to rocket to new highs in the coming days.

What does that article say, it seems to be restricted for subscribers.

Just saw, not sure what drove the sudden spike after a calm day

@babesinthewood - that is a useful link - thanks for sharing. PE is 9.5 based on the current SP.

Based on rolling 12 month figures, PE ratio is around 8-10

Hi Ricardo,

Just to clarify — that should have read around £0.5bn, not million. Apologies for the typo.

This is a back-of-the-envelope estimate based on the figures in last week’s RNS. I’m aware the cash balance at the end of December was just under A$1.0bn, but I’ve tried to factor in the ongoing CAPEX spend on the Havieron development, which is being incurred as we speak.

I’m not a financial expert, but my understanding is that CAPEX (and associated costs such as stamp duty) is excluded from earnings in accounting terms, which is why I adjusted the headline cash number rather than taking it at face value.

That said, I agree the true figure may well come in somewhat below £0.5bn, depending on timing and final CAPEX allocation — but even on a more conservative assumption, the balance sheet strength remains very compelling.

Happy to be corrected if anyone has a more precise breakdown.

GLA

We’ve broken through 600p in the blink of an eye. I expected that level to take time to clear, with some profit-taking around what is a clear psychological barrier (+30p). The fact that it didn’t is telling.

I appreciate that recent price action has been helped by gold strength and broader macro factors (including geopolitical uncertainty), which is why my question now is: can GGP hold this rise post gold rush?

Having re-evaluated GGP on its own fundamentals, I think the answer is yes. Even allowing for a modest sentiment-led dip, the business looks more than capable of sustaining these levels without relying on external tailwinds.

At ~600p, we still look undervalued:

PE ratio remains around 8 - MCAP of £4bn seems too low for me

No debt

At least £0.5m annual cash flow expected based on year 1 data.

Clear line of sight to transformational growth with Havieron

For a cash-generative miner with growth visibility, that valuation feels overly conservative.

Looking ahead, I think a doubling from here in 2026 is realistic even before Havieron comes online (£8bn mcap is still low in my opinion). As a reference point, I’ve been looking at Fresnillo’s performance in 2025 — they had roughly double GGP’s output, yet their market cap and share price movement suggest how aggressively the market can re-rate producers.

In short, this move doesn’t feel speculative. It feels like the market is beginning to price GGP as what it’s becoming, rather than what it was.

Interested to hear any data-driven views.

GLA

I agree. After doing some reach on Fresnillo over the weekend, I believe, in 2026, GGP can replicate atleast half the rise of Fresnillo in 2025 - from ~650p to 3500p..

GGP could do that in 2026 if the gold prices don't bust...!

600p was my initially target in mid 2025 but then moved higher based on the news, geopolitical situation and gold surge.

GLA

Ignore, it has changed again to 569p - probably the trade from yesterday were reported today!

Google showing 3.7% drop after close to 545p. what is going on here?

JB - you seems to know everything. So enliggten us Muppets.. !

As*****. Mind your language when you type next time.

Great results.. I doubt anyone expected that considering shutdown. At this rate, we should be able to beat the annual target for FY26 easily.

I am not sure if I am missing something here but it doesn't make sense that GGP announced the output and the cash generated but got to wait for AISC.. I thought it could have been easily calculated based on output.. but anyways, we can wait for 3 weeks for another pleasant surprise..

Well done GGP and GGPers.. !

Well, my original investment idea was same (reduce mortgage) but I initially started investing in GGP 12 years ago...

Then after Hav discovery the idea was to become mortgage free.. was part of the rise to 38p in 2020 which would have made me mortgage free if I had sold.

Now considering the scenario has changed to 100% Hav ownership and tefler as a bonus, the income is guaranteed and hence wondering if I should sell any or just use the dividends to reduce the mortgage each year..

I know for the fact that if sell, I won't be able to built a stake anywhere close to what I have now as that early investment has become life changing.

GLA...!

Yep, I definately expect money spent on exploration activities as that would create more value but we would still have a lot of spare cash after that spend.

If dividends are expected, I would rather keep the shares indefinately and drag out the mortgage rather than selling the shares to pay the mortgage off in the next 2-3 years.

I am wondering if anyone asked a question at the townhall, if dividends were potentially in sight in the next couple of years. What will GGP do with $1bn+ each year after Hav is online?

Finally, break past 540p to register a new 52-week high..!

Clarifying my statement from 12:17 post.

I’m fairly sure he expects a drop and an opportunity to buy back in - Due to the potential issue with the output and not a drop in SP due to his post ot the naive investors following his investment decision.