Member Info for B4Now

12years ago this was £3 with 200m shares in issue - i.e. Mkt. Cap £600m - based on the close today the Mkt Cap is almost £40m - it is going the right direction but we still have some way to go - I have bought and sold but need a MC of c£300m to breakeven :)

Cash flow is critical and this result does not substantially impact ENOG's cashflow. CHAR are cash burners so its ability to meet its obligations is always an issue ... you can only dip into the shareholder funding well so often.

I think you mean $0.12 / MMcf rather than bcf - anyway a well made point about the very low price, even for 2C.

Very soon I expect people to be saying that they can smell gas even if Natural gas is odourless ..!! 😄🤥

Mr P I am using a 10% discount rate - I have run 8% and 12% as well. $8 as the gas price and I have assumed that Energean will exercise their options. I have assumed a % for operating expenses and Capital Investment of $850m, $1bn and $1.3bn based on gas production volumes. There are quite a lot of variable so these are sense check numbers - I have also checked gas production volumes over 10 years to make sure that the volume produced is close to the various reserves estimates.

The metric that I like to focus on is the market cap which is currently about £100m with c1.1bn shares in issue. The max MC was £600m when we had c200m shares i.e £3/sh. My NPV10 calc for Chariots Working Interest based on 150mmscfd and $1Bn of development capital is c£550m or 50p/share - my NPV10 on 100/150/200 mmscfd are 32p/50p/67p. First Production H1 2027

This is not a list that you want companies that you invest in to be on ... he had Sound at a pound and it is less than a penny. I am struggling to recall a single winner, it is does bring in a few gullible investors but I am not sure that is a good thing.

HNY Surfit. I must admit that I was hoping for an acquisition but it didn't happen so we must continue to work through the complexity of the development of Anchois before we know if we will get a return on our investment (I am at 35p so a long way to go). My experience is that the AIM is a casino where you can lose almost everything or win big, BODs are overly optimistic - they always offer the best case scenario to attract and maintain interest. Cashflow is the only thing that will attract major investors. I am pleased that AP has a huge slice of the pie which gives him an incentive to keep things moving but I don't expect him to work miracles. Good luck to all Charioteers in 2024

Thanks Jimmy23 - I agree with your view on the potential for significant cashflow upside, my point is that the valuations are based on future cashflow (probably H1'26) so I don't expect that the current share price will be anything close to these analyst valuations (60-70p) until cash starts to flow. Historically many of these AIMs O&G companies had a considerable element of speculation on resources but those days are gone - at one point Chariot had a capital value of £600m £3/share- based on undrilled resource potential offshore Namibia.

These research notes are less fantasy and more optimistic forecasts meaning much of the value is based on future cashflows - will we make these cashflowis the challenge.

No excess cash because we will be getting healthy dividends.

Buyback is what you do with excess cash when you debt ratio is ok and dividends are covered. The money that Chariot get from the deal will be needed to fund the company through development i.e. it is not excess cash. Hopefully one day we will have no excess cash

Malcy is a paid summariser and a PR guy so I don't value his input much - I remember clearly that he attended all the booze ups for Sound Energy and treated James Parsons as a messiah ... more like a messer!!

My take is that the deal is reasonable with some cash at key junctures for Chariot and a carry to first gas so the diution should stop or slowdown. FID will be a defining moment and I expect Energean will get us there more quickly purely on the basis of wider bandwidth and their project experience. The sell down by whoever looks like a failed strategy i.e someone who expected a takeover. The values quoted by the analysts is about future cashflow rather than gas - we won't see cashflow until H1'26 at earliest but I expect some benefit from the de-risking and exploration/evaluation processes. Onshore we can hope to get enough money to pay G&A - the well costs look reasonable but the there may be some money and time in building some treatment facilities - the gas spec may be OK for industrial users - they should focus on Compressed Natural Gas CNG - I note in one of the graphics they show a CNG/LNG - forget LNG that will take more time than Anchois to produce revenue because it is a complicated process and they are relatively close to their markets. FYI volumetrically the ratio is 3:1 but there are plenty of CNG vehicles available. Best case scenario for me is that they don't need to dilute us, FID Q3'24, First Gas q2'26 (Revenue) - exploration is successful and we de-risk the multi TCFs and came sell the lot. Happy Xmas All ..!!

Hi Surfit - the european gas hub is a good source of info. You are correct about the maths it is a bit of a nightmare - volumes ft3 and m3 & scuffs then energy price €/ kWh and $/ft3 and even reference to Boe..!!

https://www.europeangashub.com/gas-price-volatility-eased-in-november.html

Hi Surfit - the European prices is tracking about 3-4 times higher than Henry Hub - by my maths the price is c$10-12 / mmscf

Good point Jimmy.

The 10% carry is currently valued at zero and even the board have forgotten about it - it is not in the recent presentations.

JOG 20-30% uplift which is nice. The big issue with UK and European OPCos is the current windfall tax situation.

Surfit - I completely agree with these comments - de-risking is a continuous process through to first gas and probably beyond. The financing arrangements will have an impact on future cashflows. We are moving into a very significant programme of capital expenditure with a lot of schedule risk because of competition for resources a good partnering deal will make a huge difference.

Hi HenryS - SocGen are arranging project finance, which will be debt funding rather than investment - no equity element will be involved.

Hi NewKOTB Anchois is gas so there won't be an FPSO - production won't be within 12 months because the lead time on critical items is 12-18mths and there is still detail engineering to be done. The big plus is that we have the EIA which something that potential partners would like to see prior to closing a deal.