Member Info for B4Now

Unfortunately Brucie is dead and probably took his bonuses with him and the cuddly toys but a farmout on reasonable terms would be a Degsy bonus for us all !! :-)

Degsy wrt special dividend I love your optimism!! The BOD have deferred salaries and fees payable on farmout and/or other significant financing event. I would prefer BPC kept their cash in hand for all the work needed on drilling success!!

The government will expect that the operator ship for drilling will pass to the major and that themajor will not want to wait whilst BPC try’s to fund its share of drilling so the deal will reflect this ie BPC passes big chunk of license equity over in return for running the drill project the issue I wonder about is if the major will want options on other blocks. Cash for back costs should help BPC.

I think major capital raise will only be required if we get a deal done with major to drill which means a farmout with back costs of seismic. Drill cost likely to be high the original well plan had 120days 20,000ft. Probably a c$50-60m well; if we seek a full carry our equity on the license may fall to 20-30% so quite a lot to consider in the discussions dilution v reduced equity?? With the scale of the targets the numbers will still look good in the success case and de/risk other licences. Quite a variety of permutations so having MQ to assist is useful.

Levelul there is one thing if risk left in here and there is also potentially high rewards. My understanding is that JP has not sold down to 3.1m shares but has put in place a plan to do so. When and at price we don’t know. My plan is to sell part of my holding pre Te9 TD and the same at TE10 and 11 retaining 50% after that ... JP may have this type of milestone in his plan or perhaps a price level. The only difference as I understand it is that JP is locked to his plan whilst I may amend mine. With the variety of options, salaries and fees that he gets across the various companies he will have a substantial tax bill so it makes sense to gather cash to meet these.

My take on Macquarie is that the BOD need up to date market info on valuations and deal structures and M can provide that.

87p ‘party’ was a target price and adopted as a never ending blog heading. Probably worth having a 20p party when we get to £300m market cap. On a more serious note the larger the share of the license we retain the higher the chance of fund raising so I expect that we will fund raise post farmout. We can expect back costs to help but there is still a lot of potential work on 3D evaluation etc across the licenses if we are to maximise value.

Probably not chippys but they are interested in deep fat fryers!!

Crusty this is a good summary of the current position. When I invested it was because we had cash, income, prospects and a timeline of sorts my plan was to take an initial position and increase it as progress was made .... still stuck at 5.5p and whilst I could average down I am interested in knowing the plan and having the confidence that it can be executed. The position has changed and whilst we have gas and prospects it is a long way from delivering value. I am not sure if this is completely in the BODs control but the limited comms is an issue.

I wonder who the subscriber is? Buying a little under 3% means no filing required. Probably someone in Potters or Macquarie network. This maybe hugely significant!!!

Correct sundaysun the Directors need to be able to meet commitments which will include whatever has been agreed by Macquarie I would expect basic retainer and a success element.

Advisers don’t come cheap and $250k/mth isn’t going to cover it so cash needed. It isn’t much dilution and access to current market info from Macquarie is worth having. discount and warrants says a bit about market view but no big deal overall but 44m shares at 2.5p could cause a drag at some point. Applying positive bias someone is having a £1m bet

D46 I think Dragon had Emirates National oil company I actually remember D oil did a 25:1 share consolidation at 3p to try and drop their penny share label which seemed to work and attracted a couple of larger institutions in. At the time Turkmenistan where D oil were drilling was about no.3 in the corruption index so high risk on every front...!!’

Ultimately shareholders have the final say, if the BoD make a recommendation that does not make sense then it should be rejected but it is difficult for individual PIs to evaluate an offer. Large IIs have much better access to the BoD and can influence matters eg appointment of NEDs. Governance etc so having a couple of quality IIs on board is a good thing. if I see them selling down I take this as a signal that something is not right. Unfortunately the E&P sector in the AIM is a bit short of IIs.

In an acquisition situation the board would make a recommendation to shareholders and shareholders would reject or accept that recommendation so the question maybe is how much value do the board assign to our licenses? The BoD have the benefit of knowledge of all historic discussions with interested parties, the government position etc. one other point worth considering when thinking takeover v farm in is that the process of acquisition within a major corporate can be very slow and complicated wheras a farm in is often less complicated. That said whoever is looking at this has given themselves 3-6 mths which I take to mean they will need time for internal approvals as well as discussions with BPC. Very little happens quickly in big oil!!

Hi D46 I was simply pointing out to the other poster that an average of 8p when the price hit 20-25p in the past does not mean you necessarily bought at the high point. I have averaged down and could go further at today’s prices but I think it isn’t worth the risk best wait to see how the negotiations go if they go well then the share price should exceed my average if they don’t I haven’t increased my loss.

There has been lots of time since 2010 to average down!!!

D46 i have a slightly higher average to yourself. I liked the Alan Burns story which combined with experience in the oil industry made me take a punt on BPC. As you remember the AIM speculation machine pushed this to about market cap £250m without a farm in / drill 15p in new money. My plan was partially exit on farm in and get carried free on the drill ... this is still my plan!! I have Traded a few ‘000s shares having gathered too many over the yrs. I don’t bother responding to much of the wild speculation because it is pointless and often it is just positive bias on ‘facts’ ...if the rampers get this to 15p without any more news I will be delighted..and maybe will sell out!!

D46 you are correct about about all the rampant speculation and of course AIM is substantially gambling based on speculation which is why I like it though it doesn’t like me :-( as a LTH or person who speculated 7 years ago on BPC and became trapped with much of the same hype being offered as now except the exclusivity deal we had mega structures, farm in likely, majors falling over themselves to get in a data room, supportive government full of debt desperate for oil revenue etc etc anyway nice to have at least one major interested.

Kelvin was exploration our next well is appraisal so we should be back with positive news soon. The investor call and presentation was very helpful and is well worth revisiting to understand the strong fundamentals and the future prospects. At best the AIM market values current production and speculates on future success or failure. If is a speculation machine...if I didn’t follow E&P on AIM I probably would gamble on something else.