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New is not cashflow - I have invested in and sold IOG during the journey - they had a technical issue with liquids which inhibited gas production soon after it started a relatively simple process fix - the price has gone from 45p to 25p but is now on its way back up - my point is that even for companies producing gas and revenue the market can be quite fickle we are some way away from gas production so can expect a few bumps and stalls in the share price. I think overall AP and the board have a great job of getting ahead of the game with Integrated One Subsea - the end to end solution will reduce schedule risk. The renewable business has great potential. Great work for a small company.
Gooner whilst I would like x10 the current price I can't see that happening - I did ride the Chariot in the past from c20p to >£2.50 £600m Market Cap but it was mad frothy times in AIM O&G I don't think that we will see those return. I think we can be a £1bn company which would be £1 and I would feel OK about that - if we can get Anchois 1st gas in the 2024 and a debt funded model for the Green hydrogen that works for me. Anyway hanging on and subscribed for the Open offer so fingers crossed we will get more new flow
There is a long way to go for Green Hydrogen but locating production of GH close to major industrial users makes sense. It is good to be at the front end of the wave. An offtake agreement with a miner would drive the financing of these projects.
I am not surprised at the raise and believe it was well handled without a huge discount to the recent share price. The money raised is needed to keep things moving. The increase in demand for services O&G market is making access to critical skills and resources a challenge, this expertise is critical to schedule. Historically market cap peaked at c£600m today we are c£160m - we will have a billion shares in issue soon. 2 years to first gas will seem like a long time but we have quite a few points of interest along the route. Buckling up for the ride..
Reasons for price movements:
Good/Bad news expected - in this case we expect a good CPR
Trading impact - after a good run profits are taken or stop losses hit - some of this maybe happening - support levels being tested and technical traders selling to buy in lower.
General Market sentiment - there is a lot of negative sentiment generally BOTs pull cash out of the market - I would say this is happening.
Fund raising - companies take advantage of rapid share rise to raise some cash - I have been hit with this so many times I don't believe it when people say it won't happen - it would make sense to wait for the CPR to be released before doing any form of cash raise.
I would like to see what Nordell's analysis says
ICB888 - I knew what you were saying. What is more interesting is the Market Cap - 11 years ago there were 200m shares in issue and the price peaked at c£3 Market Cap c£600m...all based on potential of offshore Namibia. Today we are a third of that market cap with a discovery and big potential upside with a number of potential revenue streams. Can we become a £1bn company?
SchL - this is a good point. With carbon prices set to rise it is in everyones interest to reduce GHG in the supply chain. It is hard to raise debt for new coal projects and the jury is still out on large scale carbon capture and storage projects CCS. The involvement of SocGen with their strict ESG rules supports what the Board have been saying about environmental credentials
Hi S88 - I would be surprised if SocGen had seen the CPR because it is market sensitive information. I would expect that the study work done will have a number of production scenarios and the associated Cost estimates and schedule - CAPEX phasing and 1st gas which should be enough to start discussions.
Ndume traded his licences in Namibia for Chariot stock - he was the son in law of the PM or similar so had priority access - 20m shares cost him nothing and he got a good salary from Chariot - from memory he sold a chunk c1m shares for a c£0.5m probably to buy a new Merc and have a holiday...LOL
@BDC I like Adonis because he has 85m shares and is a proven deal maker. He is unlikely to spend a lot of time navel gazing but if short term cash is needed he will raise it to keep momentum. As a long termer with with c600k shares I am happy but my average is still higher than today - I shouldn't complain because I road the Chariot first time and made some good cash, my mistake was to jump back onboard when nothing was happening. I am looking forward to the CPR and the other deal news that will keep appearing. Getting SocGen onboard now is good - they appear to have an established presence in Morocco.
I must admit when I see pullbacks in AIM stocks with potential, I always think that some sort of dilution will appear. We are always last to hear about this stuff - I used to invest and trade but couldn't reconcile my both approaches so now I just invest and wait.. the only time I can remember small investors getting a march on the city was when Encore was getting ready to drill the Catcher field and someone had managed to see the nominated rig in Dundee from a public webcam so was keeping everyone up to date on mob readiness ..!! LOL
Henry S - I think it would be a bit of a risk for Chariot to publish a timeline with milestones to first gas before FID which requires engineering definition, commercial agreements (finance and sales), Key contracts including long lead items - bit more work but I am feeling confident
I don't see the funding as a significant problem assuming that we get the CPR that we expect and our partner ONHYM is able to navigate any political issues. Generally projects can become quite complex but it is over a year since we signed a deal with Subsea Integration Alliance for FEED and a potential $500m subsea contract which means that many of the key contractual, cost and schedule issues will have been discussed - with Subsea installation at this depth we will need access to a major Vessel which hopefully will already been 'scheduled in to their vessel programme' based on their March 3rd Presentation Subsea 7 have a pretty good order book. This is pipeline likely to be a hard pipe - most of reeled vessels can lay up to 14" dia. and the latest addition to the S7 fleet can lay up to 20" - the non reeled vessels can do pretty much any size but are unlikely to be used on what is a relatively small pipeline. One of the advantages of being a small operator is that we don't have a huge hopper of projects and long chain of command when it comes to contracting, we are nimble and I am sure AP will be able to crack a deal - hopefully ONHYM can support this nimble approach - in the One Alliance world $300-500m is a large project which means they will be keen to get this booked. Getting our numbers done will support the pipeline sizing and we can they get cost and schedule data for FID.
Afren ...CEO and COO went to jail for corruption - greedy buggers!! Many people including me got their fingers burnt ..the auditors Deloitte reported a going concern months just months before they went bust. My lesson.. trust no one in these markets. I like AP because he has skin in the game..
Thanks Jimmy for providing technical insight into both the geo of the development and the stages required to move things forward. Your analysis is balanced - I guess with AIM and Morocco I think back to the "Golden Ticket" stuff spouted out by Sound's team - James Parsons knew that 10-12 appraisal wells were needed to develop a proper analysis to get a farm in or move towards development funding but he was happy to promote 'Golden tickets' on the basis of a few wells. Thankfully sanity has arrived there is the form of Graham Lyon. I have been in Chariot 10+ yrs so have seen and benefitted from the ups and suffered in the downs, I am looking forward to the next couple of years.
That's good news Whimax and top slicing seems like a good move. As a long term holder (10 years plus) I am at a much higher average but looking to pocket some cash when I hit my average. I will be watching the key development stages very closely - first gas 2024/25 means 2 plus years until cashflow starts. I think that Adoulis is a deal maker which means he will de-risk as much as possible so we should see share price appreciation long before FID
This is as good a result as we could wish for and wish the OHYM as a partner things should move quickly towards FID. I look forward to the feedback once all the data has been included in the development model. This should happen relatively quickly.
Entering the energy transition is important for most energy companies but developing cashflow is critical for this to happen. The main challenge to Hydrogen is getting an end user onboard which initially means large industrial users. Mining is one of the key markets and Adonis has the connections and understands this market so taking on small scale involvement makes sense. I have been in Chariot for 10+ and I would quite like a success story in O&G before we move into renewables. Removing coal from the energy mix in Morocco would be a great help to GHG emissions.
There has been good progress made and once all the data acquired will now be put into the subsurface reservoir models which should enable a revision to the reserves report which should be a trigger for a step up. After that we should look for FID which will require a few more pieces of the project jigsaw to be put in place - the only concern which I have is that whilst the project will be debt financed there will be a requirement for cash to run the company until we get to first gas probably 2024. In the past pre-revenue companies that I have invested in have used the bounce from good news as a means of raising cash - it is a bit of snakes and ladders until you get cash generation from operations. The other thing I find annoying is that the last people to find out about fund raising (dilution) is the small shareholder - there seems to be a trend of adding an open offer as a compensation action which never equals the dilution. Anyway I am very positive about Chariot and the focus that Adonis has brought to the business.