Member Info for B4Now

Ianfer - In 2011 Paul Welch the then CEO talked about prospects of 16.6bn barrels in Chariots acreage and turning Namibia into Norway... 2 dusters killed it. There may have been a thimble of oil recovered..!! Anyway this was about the history of AIM for wild swing 25p to £3 on speculation and equally massive falls. Todays AIM is a lot less dramatic in both directions. I was lucky to make money on Char but unfortunately reinvested some of the gains so I have held and topped up from time to time - I liked the AP move and added at 2-5p so now feel comfortable. The uncertainty of exploration have been replaced by the complexity of development so an experienced partner is a good de-risk.

This is a fair comment whimax. In my experience of the speculative impact of RNSs on AIM died in 2012, due to numerous failures of small E&P companies e.g XEL, Encore etc In 2011 Char had a MarCap of c£600m c£3 with 200m shares, this was based on fantastical prediction of Bn of bbl of oil offshore Namibia (I think the well cost was >$50m) - those days are gone and cashflow is the main metric. Proper valuation will only come when we have significant production. This development will take probably 30 mths + from start of detailed design due to the high demand in the current market. I expect that capex has increased by 30-40% from the early estimates we willlearn more once the farmout is complete. I bought and sold from 25p upto £3 in the early days. I retained a core holding which I added to and have a core holding of 500k shares at 30p so after 13 years I am happy to exit and buy UK Gilts..

Plus it’s August which is a holiday month for many of our European friends. I would expect that any final terms of a farm out will need to be approved by an investment committee who will meet regularly. I look forward to the far out news.

The fund raise explains the tick down of the share price as the market got wind of the requirement for cash. The company still offers an upside for retail investors but we are left at the end of the queue when it comes to what is happening - this dilution will not impact management because in due course they will be given more generous options at an attractive price - this is small cap investing

I would expect that they have a cost estimate and schedule as part of the FEED deliverable. It will be interesting to see how the numbers compare to previous estimates. Based on how busy the market is I expect they will be considerably higher and first gas for the project will have moved to the right probably a year. I guess that is the economic circularity of higher energy prices improving revenue levels whilst pushing up development costs. Looking forward to more news.

Hi Explorist - I assume the NPV 10 is the future cashflows discounted at 10% rather than the P10. Anyway I agree with your views generally and would be happy if this reaches its historic market cap high of £600m which would be 60p a share. The main risk I see are to the schedule the market is very busy and will be for the next 3-5 years - we need to book a slot soon; I also think that there will be a sharp intake of breath when we see the FEED estimate. There is always a chance that we will have a cash squeeze particularly if the schedule moves. 10+ years here so I have seen the ups and downs.

With almost 2bn shares issued we could get to 50p if we have a 10:1 consolidation - 55p would give SE a Market Cap of 1bn - I think if we can get to 5-10p in the next 12 mths that will have been a great effort by the management team - I have been in this a long time so have seen the highs and the lows - Parsons managed to pump it up to c90p with some good news and a lot of hype, in truth the real value was much less. HNY to all Sounders

Jimmy you are correct most funds are looking for long term projects with a steady revenue stream - wind, solar and possibly hydrogen will offer this - the complexity of pre-development and development work is outside the skillset of these type of companies so they are focussed on funding opportunities. The hopper of opportunities for funders is huge both on terms of number and scale of projects - the scale of renewable projects that Chariot is looking at with a end user for the product is very attractive, the locations are probably less attractive from a stability and regulatory basis but AP has a lot of experience in Africa so will be able to bring most of the bits of the jigsaw together. In my view as a long term shareholder the Moroccan gas prospects offer the most excitement but in a very busy project market they are quite a challenge for a company the scale of Chariot so I am hoping for a farm in to reduce the risk profile. From a supplier prospective Chariot is not the ideal counter party which is another reason bringing in another party is important. I am hoping for as good a year in 2023 as we have had in 2022 - thanks for insights and opinions they add a lot to the debate. Mery Xmas everyone B4Now

Yes in 2012 they drilled both Tapir South (May) price dropped from 200p to 70p and Nimrod (Sept) dropped from 125p to 25p which was cash value c$100m - these drills cost about $75m each and produced about 20ml of oil.. :-( ... if they had been successful we would have been richer than Elon..!! Paul Welch was pumping things up billions of bbls..

I haven't got an upstream subscription but the headline is enough and very good news for Chariot - most IOCs are brimming with cash and need invest in the energy transition. Nour is a huge project and having a small partner like Chariot would provide some drag on the development due to the financing costs better to just buy them out. There is huge value to being able to shape up opportunities before offloading and moving on - I see APs business and deal making skills as a fantastic asset to us

I have been in this share for 10+ years and I have an average of 35p. I saw c£3 a share when we had about 200m shares in issue so a market cap of c£600m - I traded in and out between drills and major events so over the whole piece I am about even. My exit plan is FID 20%; First Gas 30%; I think that building Chariot into a significant operational energy company is a big challenge which is why I will sell down / exit. My experience with small AIM E&P companies such as Afren, Hurricane, Sound makes me cautious about the story that a BoD will tell - I missed the Xcite mess exiting because there was little chance of getting the heavy oil to flow without major investments I made x20 my initial investment but lost it on the others listed. I think progressing the portfolio and an exit by TO would be a good result for AP I don't see Chariot as a 1bn company.

https://vimeo.com/769407756

I expect with the demand for skilled resources that we will see dome delays in the FEED which will knock on to the development - on the plus side the ability to use standard equipment from the One SSA should help with some of the long lead items. I will be very happy if we get FEED by Xmas. Wrt to the IOG comparison our gas is cleaner - IOG have had problems with fluid handling which we should avoid - I would expect EPC 18 - 24 mths for the CPF with about 12 mths onsite construction - there is always a bit of time required for design then place orders . FID end of q4'22 - award CPF EPC q1'23 - commence CPF design q2'23 place - key orders q4'23 - early works q1 24 - CPF build q2 -q4 24 - commission first gas q1'25 - it looks tight. Any delay in funding or requirement to involve more parties in decisions will delay the work and the Environmental approval process can be slow. From memory SDX has a small CPF in Morocco I cant remember how long that took to get up and running - info is probably in the RNS I will have a look later

Move to COO for Yvon means he is new CEO in waiting - a guy like him is not hanging around SDX because he needs the cash. I expect Yvon will have a big input to the new strategy operationally.

Snott the Energy Profits Levy is a 25% surcharge on extraordinary profits, this is being offset by an 80% investment allowance - a significant tax relief which is to encourage investment in UK oil and gas extraction. I don't think that this will directly help nor hinder Chariot, though you could argue that it could boost UKNS demand for subsea developments / tie backs which does impact the supply side of the subsea market which makes the deal done with SIA a great call. Access to engineering resources is an issue.

Kistos tried a fast one and got knocked back then sweetened the deal and still got very little interest. SQZ have c500m in cash or cash equivalents and are now printing money from UKNS assets that they bought from BP and their partners - they had a tag along deal where they shared revenue with the previous owners, now that is over it is all theirs..!! Revamp of subsea facilities and a high impact exploration well may well send them back to recent highs c450p... they may fancy a new basin experience

Good post Simon. My problem has always been how when to get out of these type of stocks, I tend to focus on market cap and potential cashflows rather than the share price which is often driven by speculation, I don't assign much value to assets. I have only one portfolio which I 'manage' myself and it is mostly E&P stocks, it represents about 15% of my investments which are many and varied. Chariot is about 40% of this E&P fund so c6% of my investments - it was c3% before the latest Anchois well. I view small AIM E&P as a casino. I won big on XEL but lost big when Afren went bust. I have made money on Chariot in the last big walk up in 2011 but I am underwater at the moment and ditto for Sound where I ran from 5p to 90p, I took some cash out but didn't exit completely. I am semi retired so would enjoy a big payoff on Chariot but wouldn't suffer too much if it doesn't come in. There is no sure thing in E&P so I would encourage others to take care. I remain in Chariot because I view AP as an entrepreneur with a large vested interest but as the size of the prize grows I worry that it can distract the team and make it difficult to develop due to scale of resources required on the flip side it may attract a significant IOC but of those only Total has declared that new basins are still on their radar - ENI is also a potential suitor but their interest in Green Hydrogen is limited. All the best to investors...PS August is a holiday month for most European companies so I guess we may need to wait until September to see some more action.

Interesting Article in FT on Patrick Pouyanné the CEO of Total Energies who is a detailed guy and likes a deal. As the article says 'While European rivals BP and Shell have become increasingly cautious about developing oil and gas projects in previously unexploited regions, Pouyanné has pushed on and most shareholders have backed him so far' - AP also likes a deal...! Allez AP..!

As a long term holder I can understand smyth111's frustration, the market cap last peaked at c600m in 2011 share price 320p and about 200m shares in issue, there was huge speculation on oil talk of $200/bbl. IMO Outside of retail investors who like a punt and dream of hitting big there isn't a huge interest in small E&Ps. The current market only subscribes real value to free cashflow with dividends, I think that we are on our way but it will be a few years before we see the true value of the Chariot assets - I look at Serica and see that as a good example of what can happen once a transformational deal happens and cash starts to flow - they have managed that with out a huge amount of dilution, even now much of their value sits in cash and cash equivalents . I am in for the long haul so not losing sleep over share price movements on almost no volume. Good luck all..

I don't subscribe to the price being held back I think that volumes are very low so any organisation wanting to buy in would move the dial quite quickly.