RE: A mine with nothing in...........?13 Sep 2025 11:03
Lets not get too excited. Yet 😉
Block have seen transformation into carbonate minerals within a few months in the presence of dissolved CO2. The 8.6GT estimate depends more on the presence of zeolites in the rock, but they are there. The potential storage seems to have good permeability and porosity throughout, but this needs confirmation. The issue is we do not know how h0m0geneous the mineralogy is and will be determined as the system develops.
The geology could support rapid mineralisation, but scaling to 8.6Gt hinges on continuous, zeolite-rich, permeability under a robust seal with managed pressures. I’d price multi-gigaton success at 5–15%, subject to rapid upward revision if appraisal proves continuity, injectivity, and benign geomechanics.
If only 1 Gt proven & monetisable, that values gross asset at $20/t = $20 billion (using a lower estimate based on researched global CCS credits trading at $10–$40/tCO npv). Even after heavy overheads applied (90% for timing, costs, risk), NPV could still exceed $2 billion. If Block are lucky to achieve $40/tCO2 then that can double. If more than 1Gt is proven then even more. Its a simple case of doing the figures.
Compare to today’s £25m — a potential 50–100× uplift in equity value over time. In share price terms: 20p–£1+ range is within rational bounds if the market becomes convinced of commercial multi-gigaton CCS. Its only a matter of time, but not this year 😂
The next news in my opinion, will be the farm-out (Project III, Project IV), drilling sidetracks (Project I slim-hole) with related cash-flow implications and growth potential beyond just CCS. Anticipate a rise to 2p/3p.
For the CCS early results from monitoring: tracer tests, pressure data, possible chemical evidence of CO₂ mineralisation in the next 3 months, which will be the first hard data informing whether the reservoir is reacting as hoped; strong signals will move investor confidence and valuations.
So much news to come and potentially as soon as October/November. 😁