Member Info for Avi8r

I've been advocating mid May. 13th onwards for major news, but we know its coming regardless.

Apologies for the typo's - it seems the software converts my uppercase to lower. Strange! But good to see this moving upwards.

well said kilgeever ‘wise not to run too soon.’, but good to see the price steadily increasing towards 2p. iirc, tennyson proposed a fair valuation at 4p, with a total nav of 18.4p/share not including contingent resources, or exploration in oct 23. would be good to see recovery and stabilisation to 4p or even 18p.

in response to my questions grower69, thank you for the links, but the top 10 companies listed mainly refer to airborne carbon capture which, i understand, is not what is proposed as block mention water injection. typically water 20 tonnes of water is required to dissolve 1 tonne of co2, which will require some form of energy & associated cost to operate.

block have confirmed 256mt (patardzeuli reservoir) ccs which is good, the company mention world class, which it is, but to put into context, at 256mt that is just over 6% of the worlds (anthropogenic) current annual co2 emissions. there are larger opportunities elsewhere.

the 8.7gt (block xib/f estimate) storage is based on the basin-sink. to understand that requires understanding “basin-sink”, ie, how permeable, stable and similar (****geneous) the mineralogy is. block does not know this, hence the estimated figure and can only be confirmed by drilling (over 1km) and developing the reservoir. how many drills will be required? who will drill? what cost? importantly, what value does this estimate provide? after all, it’s an educated estimate but even at 10% equates to 870mt.

an example, talos energy sold its ccs subsidiary to totalenergies in a deal valued at $148m, included in the transaction one of the largest ccs portfolios in the usa, with an estimated total potential storage capacity of 1.7gt. block has 5 times greater estimated assuming the basin-sink can accommodate 8.7gt.

a good/great opportunity, obviously until associated costs are understood it’s difficult to determine an accurate valuation. the use of prof oelkers helps, an outstanding geologist (h-index 90; 60 index is exceptional) so his involvement and any report will underpin the narrative.


not forgetting the oil, with nav $500m which can easily be connected to the scp as i mentioned previously. i note cnpc are involved in azerbaijan where the scp originates, would be an easy decision to acquire, particularly given their increasing presence in georgia.

given tennyson’s 18p based on not including contingent resources, or exploration, it must be safe to assume this price will be surpassed with news, but i still think mid-may based on farm-out announcement.

There are some wild figures being thrown around and I am not convinced people really understand what they are talking about, despite claiming research. Anyone challenging these are shouted down with petulant name calling and being accused of de-ramping. Pathetic, and says more about the respondent than those asking sensible questions.

I would like to know a couple of things, and while I don't deny things look very promising at last, but:

1. Why is there such a difference between 256M tonnes and 8.6G tonnes storage?

2. What does basin-sink mean?

3. How does 256M tonnes compare to other CCS facilities across the planet?

4. What are annual anthropogenic emissions?

5. What sort of costs are involved in pumping CO2 into the basin?

Perhaps this is the sort of research we should be doing to understand the bigger picture rather than saying numbers are mind-blowing. There is simply no evidence to support that. Maybe then we can determine a realistic price, which I do agree is quite north of the current.

g.a.y.lord98, I've never been negative, merely objective, though you cannot seem to work out the difference and just attack people based on your ignorance.

A good and solid set of results. The ME issue will not have that much of an impact, the route network is strong enough to take any disruptions from that region. Company will still maintain circa 3k flights per day and with the introduction of alternative fuels (SAF/hydrogen) combined with modern, efficient fleet the successful holiday division the future is good.

easyJet are good at the core business fundamentals.

jeff bezos net worth: $203.8 billion usd. convert to gbp: 63,956,081,000

at your valuation of £570/share means you hold (63,956,081,000/570 )287,642,247 shares or more, as you will be worth more than him.

not bad given 724,680,000 shares in circulation, means you own 40% of block by your calculation. maybe you want to check your figures before m.***lord.96 bursts with excrement…

"Massive demonstrations in Georgia's capital Tbilisi against Putin's puppets in the country":

https://twitter.com/ForeignpolicyWB/status/1779915276751868161?ref_url=

Check Cenovus energy (CAN) Ultimately 20 million tons of CO2 are expected to be stored @ cost $20/Ton of CO2, with over 30 Million tons injected since the project started. Figures are old, and suspect prices now cheaper following technology improvements, CCS has been around for a while. What has been overlooked here is that CO2 is used to assist extraction, its not a matter of filling a void.

Block states 'reservoir scale storage is estimated at 256 million metric tonnes', and 'basin scale at up to 8.7 gigatonnes'. The 256 mmt is clearly more objective, however basin-scale is rather more complicated hydrology and less defined.

Some wild figures being thrown around here, lets not get too excited

I've just returned from a trip to the UK, first in a long while and what a depressing place its becoming. Prices going up and generally miserable. Whats going on???

Despite all the cheerleading over the weekend regurgitating much of whats been covered, still don't anticipate news until mid-May, based on research. The clues are there, so the price will drift until then.

If it does come in before then, happy days, but its clear no one has a clue what price or when. Until then, sit back and be patient.

I doubt very much it will drop. People are still travelling, the world still turns and TUI still operating. The only difference is a diversion around affected areas, which will not affect TUI as the furthest east they operate is Egypt, west of the problem area.

Thailand routes may be affected, but thats operated by TUI Nordic if memory serves me correctly.

Nothing to worry about.

Has anyone attempted to deny him that privilege then?

Not expecting any farm-out news until mid May at the earliest.

Georgian government has announced development of a new airport near Tbilisi expected to cost £1bn with an increased projected GDP. More carriers are operating to Georgia, with others adding the route, however tourism is not the only income, work expected to commence 2025, following tender process. Of course, more aircraft means more fuel. Anyone cognisant with average aircraft uptake or related economies might see this as a benefit.

On frontera resources? I thought this was the place to find out...

The only walk round inspection of engines is that of the inlet fan and nacelle heaters. It is the responsibility of maintenance crews to secure panels, there are no indications on the flight-deck for loose or missing panels. Only unlatched doors.

Obviously if a panel is unlatched they can be secured, which is spotted by looking under the engine nacelle, so not that easy, but good crew will look, as should maintenance and handlers looking for anything unordinary.

Where's Sarah when you [don't] need it?

Probably sat on the sidelines gnarling away, frustrated and climbing the walls. Was always going to end in being banned.

Edited:

* Depending on demand, Block could well be in a position to deliver gas for 20 years, based on the details from Shah Deniz. Farm-out partner will be a critical choice/decision, irrespective though, the figures will be way north of todays price. As previously commented, the farm-out process commenced mid February and realistically don't think we will hear much before May.

Colleague of mine caught a bit of television in Tbilisi over the weekend, screening Levan Davitashvili being interviewed about a "200 billion cubic meters gas field discovered in Georgia suggesting they have about 15% of the gas reserves in the fields in Azerbaijan."

The report stated Georgia's gas reserves amount to 5.7 trillion m3 and went on to refer to Block Energy mining a large oil and gas field 30 km from Tbilisi using horizontal wells.

For info, Shah Deniz delivered 26 billion standard cubic metres in 2023 & Shah Deniz 2 will deliver estimated 16 billion cubic meters per year but these figures give a good comparison for the potential of Blocks discovery, particularly as the SCP passes right through BlockX1. In 2018, Shah Deniz achieved 100 billion cubic metres total gas production since start of operations,12 years after commercial gas production and start of the SCP.

Depending on demand, Block could we be in a position to deliver gas for 20 years, based on the details from Shah Deniz. Farm-out partner will be a critical choice/decision, irrespective though, the figures will be way north of todays price. As previously commented, the farm-out process commenced mid February and realistically don't think we will hear much before May.

That the information is being released into the wider public domain has to be good.

"Southwest has had several emergency landings in recent years. It just isn;t a very safe airline." Define 'emergency'. Are we talking engine failure, lack of fuel, medical or something else?

With a fleet in excess 800 aircraft operating over 1.4 million trips carrying 137 million passengers the odds of an emergency or, more commonly, precautionary situation are increased.

What emergencies are you referring to and how does that relate to RR?

Rolls-Royce announces it has successfully kicked off the flight test campaign for its latest aero engine for the business aviation market, the Pearl 10X, on the company’s dedicated Boeing 747 flying testbed. The engine has been selected by French aircraft manufacturer Dassault to exclusively power its brand-new flagship aircraft, the Falcon 10X.

https://ow.ly/CqTE50R7e7r

Information overload there, much of it irrelevant to Block, however, considering the pertinent points, it demonstrates how well BLOE is positioned to benefit from current and future Georgian developments.

“Energy is one of the most important sectors of our economy” with “large-scale reform of the energy sector” and the separation of energy transmission and distribution from generation is interesting depending how that can be expedited, including the introduction of Georgian Energy Exchange ensuring the “implementation of competitive and open market principles in the energy market”. This really has much potential for BLOE.

The 'South Caucasus pipeline (ultimately delivering natural gas to Europe) has increased by an average of 25%, in total it has increased by 92% compared to 2020'. Transit for 2023 was 8.21bcm. Pipeline capacity is 24.04bcm/yr, and noting it runs across Project 3 (most notably, right through Block XIF (and XIB, within circa 25km/15miles)) it offers an opportunity to connect and export gas from Blocks discovery of 1TCF (28bn cubic meters), ie, it would take over a year at full capacity just to drain estimated Project 3 gas reserves.

The gasification project providing natural gas to around 94% of Georgia’s population, ie, 3.5M people across 27k square miles combined with improved infrastructure and gas available demonstrates inward investment delivering economic growth opportunities, subsuming BLOE, so again we can anticipate improved trading.

This is the main opportunity, and its not "jam tomorrow" given the dates provided. The pipeline has been operational for some time and the technical problem will be connecting to it. Politics plays a positive aspect too; EU is not keen on 100% dependence on Azerbaijan for gas, so adding from Georgia will help and encourage further investment.

That leaves the oil. Reading between the commentary, appears will mainly be exported, given the focus on hydro electric power generation x 12 HPP y/e 2024 (very ambitious), however adds further support for the share-price.

The other mention is the Black Sea submarine power cable project, concurrently designed to improve internet communications and provide electricity, reducing the reliance on Russian infrastructure. Not really relevant to dialogue here, but an indication where Georgian politics is focussed.

In conclusion, for BLOE it confirms why gas is now the key. The rest is peripheral support, progress is ongoing, so not jam tomorrow but a clear indication that many moving parts are working together towards achieving a focussed output of which BLOE seems to be very integral.