Outlook (ShyeMinger need not reply)1 Feb 2026 09:19
near-term, project iii is the likely catalyst for next meaningful news flow, with that update expected to centre on either a binding farm-out agreement or confirmation that negotiations are progressing toward one. given the need for partner alignment and georgian state approvals, q1/q2 2026 window is the realistic expectation for a material rns. on announcement of a binding deal (particularly if appraisal is carried and capex-funded by the partner), the market would likely re-rate bloe into the 1.5–2.5p range, reflecting reduced funding risk and 3rd-party validation of the gas resource.
in parallel, ccs is transitioning through different but equally important de-risking. if storage capacity is independently certified at circa 200mt and formally confirmed, that would mark the point at which ccs transitions from optional upside to a credible strategic asset. to repeat, capacity confirmation alone does not equal revenue. on that basis, ccs confirmation could reasonably support a move into the ~2–4p.
crucially, the timing of these catalysts matters as much as the content.
if project iii and ccs updates arrive within the same 3–6 month window, effects are likely to compound not overlap. project iii farm-out first establishes funding security and operational momentum, ccs certification then anchors long-term strategic value. together, that combination would reposition bloe from a single-asset aim minnow to multi-path growth, something markets have historically rewarded with higher valuation.
looking beyond that, >10p remains achievable but conditional and not guaranteed. that requires a second ccs step: commercial validation, storage contract (1–2 mtpa, multi-year duration) or evidence of scalable injectivity. those milestones are more likely late 2026 onward, but once throughput and pricing are visible, the valuation framework changes materially.
until then, the realistic expectation is a phased re-rating: 1st: project iii execution, 2nd: ccs capacity confirmation, and only later on contracted ccs revenues. all to play for but please adjust expectations to realistic timescales. a unicorn? not this year, but steady growth expected if ph can sort his **** out.
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