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Sittingduck11,

Agree this is not capitulation for OIl, although oil likely to bounce from here. What happens next all depends on OPEC meeting.

Bots,

I think they are doing that but in a much smaller way, reducing UKCS production 'slightly' and expanding production in other tax jurisdictions, its the same with Enquest.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve)

decreased by 2.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 440.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil

inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline

inventories decreased by 4 million barrels from last week and are about 4% below the five year

average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories decreased

last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.9 million barrels last week and are about

13% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased

by 0.6 million barrels from last week and are 8% below the five year average for this time of

year. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels last week.

Thats because its just facts.

The USA has 5% of world population and uses 25% of world Oil production. Do you really think supply can keep up with demand when the middle classes of developing nations start to want the same standard of living as the US ?

Fogthemogg,

Asia-Pacific oil consumption Terrawatt-hours

1998 11,071.98

2018 19,539.60

2023 20,861.53

Yes Sekforde,

A glut is a convenient narrative when you've a lot of oil to buy and you want it cheap. I think Biden sold between $90 and $100 so not surprising they want to buy back around $60.

With a developing world Oil demand is only going one way, same story for gas.

Global Oil consumption in Terrawatt-hours

1965 18,012.52

1975 31,992.35

1990 37,608.00

2000 42,983.43

2010 48,058.23

2019 53,618.93

2023 54,564.00

ourworldindata org/grapher/oil-consumption-by-country

'March 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright estimates it would take $20 billion and years to accomplish President Donald Trump's goal of refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to its maximum capacity, the Energy Department said on Friday.

President Donald Trump said on his first day in office he wants to fill the reserve up to the top as part of a policy to support oil and gas.'

www reuters com/business/energy/us-energy-chief-seek-20-billion-refill-oil-reserve-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-03-07/

'The effort to refill America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, depleted under President Biden in 2022, is progressing slowly under the Trump administration, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a CNBC interview this week.

"We are refilling the reserve now, and we will continue to refill the reserve the whole time I'm in office," Wright stated, warning it could take years. He criticized Biden’s decision to release oil from the SPR as "such an irresponsible action to drain that reserve so quickly for electoral reasons."

The Biden administration authorized a historic sale of 180 million barrels over six months to fight surging gasoline prices and inflation, and in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to Newsmax.'

Brookieboy69,

Some shorts might want to close before suspension too.

Sekforde,

Yes I agree Harbour could be selling for $10 a barrel more if hedged differently. Question is where do we think Brent price will be in 6 to 12 months time.

Hi Sekforde,

Do you know of any producers that were recently able to hedge at around $80 ? For example the April 2026 Brent futures price has traded in a 52 week range of $58.41 to $78.27. So to my mind the highest possible hedge for 1 year out would be under $78.

Please correct me if thats wrong.

Dark_Knight2020,

They are probably just trying to increase the pressure on Trump via US Oil industry as OPEC will be making a lot less money if his 145% Tariffs remain for too long. I did read the production increase is just bringing forward 3 months of planned increases to now, I think its about 300kbpd all told so not huge. The tariffs and potential trade war with China are the real bigger issue.

BP has $222.92billion in liabilities against $282.23billion in assets a ratio of 1.26 assets to liabilities

Harbour has $24.07billion in liabilities against $30.32billion in assets a ratio of 1.259 assets to liabilities

Godolphin1,

I would have thought we need an TR1 RNS if BASF have are selling in quantity.

If you look on Morningstar you can see we have had ABRDN, Fidelity, Blackrock Polar, Scottish Widows all selling total 14.8m an sill had 17.8m shares left at end of March.

We also seem to have Third Ave asst mngment UBS and Aperture cautiously buying.

Saw your name sake down in Marazion the other week any correlation ?

ForeverNever,

Ithaca is up 23.95% in last 6 months Harbour is down 39.9% just a small difference.

S34icknote,

Debt covenants are at a generous 4.5 X EBITDA

NAV,

It was back in March 2024.

'Investment clients have “massively repositioned” their portfolios toward European equities and government bond exchange-traded-funds, a spokesperson for Europe’s biggest asset manager told Bloomberg. The direction of flows reflects a “broader market repositioning” on the back of tariff announcements, the person said.

The comments match flow data provided by Morningstar Direct, which show a general flight from US funds this month. In the first two weeks of April alone, as markets digested President Donald Trump’s announcements on tariffs, US-focused funds managed by Amundi, UBS Group AG and State Street Corp. saw a combined €3.9 billion ($4.5 billion) in client outflows, according to Morningstar data based on equity ETFs.

Over the same period, European equity funds managed by BlackRock Inc.’s iShares brand, Amundi and UBS were the biggest gainers, adding a combined €2.4 billion.

It’s the latest example of the “sell-America” sentiment gripping markets, as even investors once seen as bullish on US stocks sound the alarm. Investors are having to contend with the fallout of Trump’s ongoing tariff war, as well as the chilling effect of his threats to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

The big shift in capital flows out of the US and into Europe is leading to a “normalization of valuations,” according to Stefan Hoops, the chief executive officer of Deutsche Bank AG’s investment arm, DWS.'

Well they are reducing GLG had 1.30% short in March down to 0.61% via 0.59% 15th April

Someone is adding £100k at a time

23-Apr-25 10:01:31 164.4783 62,304 Buy* 164.10 164.50 102.48k O

NAV_Mike,

Well as they just increased they sure don't want it rising. Are they buying the bonds and shorting the stock perhaps ?

Its a bit nuts that anyone would 'short' a company they once held shares in just because the price is at a certain level. They might sell then buy back later or short then close then re-short.

A more coherent strategy might be you long HBR and short a weaker player like TLW as a hedge.