Member Info for Aubery

Maybe the shorters will return the shares with the ones they procure at 15p as part of the firm placing...provided they only ever short at prices >15p they profit, presumably. Is that how it could work?

I agree Chilting, lots of volatility. Our Norwegian friends have loaned their shares ... highly likely to be shorted. This to me says long term we will be fine (that’s why Norway backed us) but short term the city are going to trade the hell out of this therefore strap in. Not for widows and orphans...

It’s a good query wrt the extra $200M.... says to me the placing price was too low.

Also page 97....wrt Excess Application Facility...
‘Such applications may be allocated in such manner as the Directors may determine, i their absolute discretion, and no assurance can be given that .... will be met’
Wouldn’t bank on getting many excess, 10% tops would be my guess.

Paul, others may have a better idea but looking at page 92 of the prospectus it looks like it could be at the complete discretion of the directors.

Ok Rich, amnesty. My thoughts are that the SP over the coming months will be determined by the city and institutions. The make up of ST2 is complex and I’m not aware of any comparable finance arrangement with a similar company with which assess.

Rich,
Love the little digs there pal. Not in my head, it’s in black and white. Capital dumped shares in full knowledge they could rebuy at 15p.

Rich, we will only know if Rosewall’s called it right in the coming weeks. With such a large placing 2B shares my guess is that we will at some point drift back. This happens in most cases. To think that any rise or fall is not ‘manufactured’ is terribly naive.... see what Capital did prior to ST2....

Learner..... i have 14368 in my OO. Admittedly this is not big gains but is a way to either save a bit if cash or buy a few extra shares. Win win.

Scotman, no great shakes but just sold 14368 shares at 16.075p. These I will buy back at 15p in the OO. Nets me a huge £140 which might well buy me another 900 odd shares or so.

Reminder for us LTH’s

First poly end of 2021
10mtpa mid 2024
13 mtpa early 2026
20 mtpa early 2029

In 30 months time we (should/could) start mining.

Great news to see Norges Bank investing in Sirius. In order to maintain their 3.47% will they need to continue purchasing as and when new shares hit the register? I.e presumably their % is based on the current 4.83B shares in issue but our issue, as we know, is going to increase. Does this dilution mean we will get a flurry of TR1’s as institutions stakes change just by virtue of the dilution?

The Institutions are not in the same boat as us. If only I was in the same boat as them....

I hope you are right JR. my guess is 15 -20 p come year end. Loser buys a round at the 50p party (revised down from the £1 party in light of recent fundraising)

JR - very very optimistic suggesting 25 - 35p this year. That’s a 100 % uplift from here in under 7 months. Please remember there are 2B shares hitting the register which will have cost 15p.

I believe we will see 35p but not for at least 2 years. Folk should try looking at market cap values first then shares (10B) then work out SP.

GK, have you digested it yet..... it’s a monster!
I might be wrong but it appears if we have a bad brexit and the forex strengthens the dollar we could save $440M on construction capital costs. Every cloud.....

Conversely, a strengthened pound and it could cost us an extra $340M

Page 565

Big numbers

Thanks Casapinos,
Nice measured reply.

Casapinos,
Thank you for the summary.
In your opinion are these large volumes we are seeing due to placement shares being forward sold ahead of hitting the market?
Excuse my ignorance, I’m trying to assess (guess) how the £2B extra shares will affect our SP in the short term.

GK, thanks,
Have pasted into my excel spreadsheet.

Cheers LL,
Good to get some debate on the financials. ST1 (which was complex) now looks straightforward compared to ST2. Some of the financial instruments are very opaque. I’m confident this will come good.