Member Info for Atanasoff

Hi Captain - I am going back to lurking for a bit. I can only procrastinate enough and indulge the delusional so much. I have work and some downtime to sort.

I may be tempted with a "I told you so" for the deluded but I hope that ODX can be saved and that H&N comes good (likely with a reformed board)

All the best.

Always an excuse eh Kate?

You encapsulate the dunning-kruger effect. Go google it as you won't know what it means.

Okay Kate - I wish you the best.

Kate: I've got a tip for you aswell. 2.50 Epsom Genesius 5/2"

Came 4th. Of 5.

LOL

Kate

One of us has disposed of a business or two. Here is a clue. It isn't you.

For full transparency - I have been clear that we have lots of unknowns. I am not a high flying exec (why would I be indulging you while watching a film?) BUT I have C suite experience. I have run and been part of businesses that are far more profitable and of higher revenue than ODX (I realise that isn't saying much). I freelance these days across a number of sectors as it suits my lifestyle.

Costs don't just disappear as soon as the sale is finalised. Even if they did you have gained £300k in the figures I have provided BUT you haven't factored cost distribution within the business (as previously explained).

Ergo - in your scenario where all costs from CD4 stop (so the broker doesn't get paid, no accountancy costs, no transfer and other costs etc etc) they have an extra £300K. BUT now all costs left are on H&N (previously just a cost centre).

At the burn rate of the company how much is now left? Neither me or you know. So you have to assume projected revenue is as forecast. Then margins are returned to what they were. Then that sales are maintained without significant cost of sale. Then assume that the actual cash burn is contained. Remember £300k was the loss after revenues and the balance doesn't lie.

I will take that as a no then.

Wow

Okay - let's try again. The disposal was completed end of July lets say. (so 4 months at 300k per month - 1,2 mil) After that time you have additional costs of sale and transferable costs - so lag. These can be large or small. But they are still costs. For example brokers fees.

To use the engine example - the engine isn't at full pelt (because you have switched it off) but as it slows to a stop it has some legacy energy (cost) in it.

Just the way things are. So, as you seem to be obsessed by the loose change of 300k lets say you only spend half that in august. Well done - you've got £150k for the board to spend in Sept.

Kate

I am not a director of ODX. I would be breaking the law if I was and it would also be pretty obvious. However, that comment is encouraging because it means I may be finally getting through to you that I have some knowledge of how business works.

"Doesn't matter about it being on books money is now there. Simple ad that"

It is true but demonstrates a naivety that is truly shocking. Have you ever been in a boardroom Kate? (assuming you're not a cleaner).

It was however the balance at the end of march, not the start so you may be #300K up depending on bleed in August.

Cash maybe available but it isn't a magic money tree - it is already on the books. What part of that don't you grasp?

Hi Kate

Okay, I guess we accept everything else written. Lets focus on this.

The RNS of August 3rd says "Subsequent to the sale of the Alva site in March, the CD4 Business has been operating at a loss of approximately £0.3m per month."

Subsequent means "after". It is worth noting that the RNS date is August. So between March and August the loss of THAT business was £300k. Per month. 5 months. £1.5 mil.

And I hate to repeat myself but as the RNS itself says:

"the Company has not historically allocated the shared facility costs, direct labour and overheads associated with the Alva site between its COVID-19 operations and its CD4 Business"

In other words the cost centres between the divisions is utterly pointless because no one could be arsed to do the math (because it would impact the divisions sales director at a wild guess - no idea where I got that idea from).

In addition businesses aren't run in a binary fashion. You get among other things cost lag. Think of switching off a motor. It still runs for a bit as it winds down. It doesn't suddenly stop unless you've killed it.

So for ODX the weight of costs for the remaining assets are now on what is claimed to be the profitable division (um, have you actually looked at the accounts since 2017?) and you have the lag of other costs from the now sold CD4 / Alva disposal along with other bits and pieces like fee's etc from the dilution/open offer and sale (typically at the very least 3% of the total projected consideration I would think although that is a guess based on my last business sale of a much smaller but much more profitable business).

Hope that clears that up.

ExMS has it.

I wonder how many of you know how many units Voltz make. Or the market share they have. Or the competitors they have. Or how much the JV can deliver back to NNN after everyone has had a nibble. I bet none of you have even done a basic SWOT.

The RNS means they have tested on a line that is or replicates the current production line. It confirms it can spray on its particles in a consistent manner. That means it can move to the next stage to the R&D cycle. That's it. And then you celebrate that it has risen 10% on a junk status price as if it is the second coming.

Are any of you for real?

Kate

I will be generous and give you the benefit of the doubt by answering directly the two things you have stated.

1)" 4 months losses at £300,000 =£1.2m not £1.5m"

I state the run rate for loss (remember based on revenue/ profit at the time of the posted loss so it could be better or worse) was £300K (see para 9). The £1.5m is estimated (from the previous thread) from March over a period of 5 months (July). On trends the losses may have widened but with the disposal of CD4 I expect it to be less.

2) Wheres money from Abingdon, £625,000 owed and payment made.

Money owed is already on the balance sheet from an accounting perspective. Even if it is bad debt it still stays. The fact that it has now been paid will have a material impact on the cash at hand but not on the accounts per se. It isn't new money. You can't count it twice. This isn't ASOS.

3) "RNS dated 03 Aug" concentrate on profitable and cash generative Health and Nutrition division". There you go from the company not posters on here, "profitable".

Where to start? Okay, the product may be profitable. Margins were 38% , 51% and 64% at differing times. Depending on the structure of the organisation the division those products may sit in may be profitable. It comes down to cost centres and we know that H&N was excluded from some company costs (because the last publish accounts say so). If ALL costs within the business are truly accounted for within the division then that is great. Often that is not the case.

Due to the way ODX is run my guess is that cost centres were pretty "fluid". In simple terms H&N now has to carry the companies costs as a whole. ODX has disposed of at least 190 staff. We know that as a fact. We also know the running costs of Alva are now gone. But that still leaves a heck of a lot of expenses (all of which are rising). That means the products may be profitable in theory but the company could very much still be unprofitable. It consumes money like I consume Ramen.

IF ODX manage to trim costs then it may return to profit (why do you think I stay here?). BUT many good businesses go under despite what they could achieve in the future. If you don't have the working capital you sink. Even companies with working capital go under if they do not meet financial requirements to be viable businesses.

Most reading this (hi) will have experienced recessions in 1992, 1998 and 2008. As a businessman with many clients in the health sector (among others) I also know what they are telling me. This recession is going to be a killer. Banks are jumpy. Private Equity is shaky. Only strong companies are going to survive and whatever way you slice it based on the figure we know as fact ODX has big problems.

It has some hope. But this is a gamble not an investment. Todays delay is yet another red flag for anyone that has been in the C Suite or got a grasp of the basics.

Just my opinion based on the actual facts we know rather than any unquantifiable

I procrastinate badly when I don't have much left to do but I still like keeping my mind active. Today has been one of those days at work. So here are some facts.

As was highlighted yesterday - this could be a sticking point in getting the accounts signed off:

"As such, the Global Health division will be treated as a discontinued activity in the financial statements for the year ended 31 March 2022, with the CD4 assets, including the associated research and development assets, being written down to their recoverable amount and reclassified as assets held for re-sale."

We also know that they have had various one off payments that were highlighted in an earlier post.

Of note is that the Bank of Scotland has only extended the overdraft facility to the 30th September. Coincidence?

The ominous comment in the RNS that this additional time would give ODX time to reassess the funding requirement. In other words the disappointing open offer (that came in 500K below the lowest of expectations) they are going to need money from somewhere which means RBS or other funder. A further dilution is tricky (if not before why now?) so could it also be they are in talks to see if the £2m can be expanded to drive growth in H&N ?

On the plus side H&N has shown good growth. Has that been maintained? On the downside H&N margins are down and they are marketing mainly into a country that Liz truss has just declared a danger to the UK. We are also about to enter the mother of all recessions with costs going up for many small businesses.

The prospects also indicate the testing in Kenya. But has anyone done any actual research on this? Many RNS have promised much - mainly for dilutions. Are people confident in Surgipath Services? (My guess is many holders don't even have the first guess on who they are before furiously googling the name now). Does anyone know how the prospect of £4m was arrived at? What timescale are we looking at? Unless it is a sure fire win that can be instantly tapped (and business rarely works like that) then you have to think about cashflow.

Loss was running at #300K per month. Even at best estimates, if that hasn't been significantly slashed the money, even on the most optimistic level (i.e the taxpayer loses a cool 2 mil), won't last forever.

Then you have the elephant in the room. No not Caley2. The £2m from the government. Does anyone believe the government hasn't been in touch with ODX since 8th Feb? Why would they write this money off when the equipment isn't going to be used by ODX and the delivery never happened?

Lets say that they deliver on the figure of £12.3 million. Let's go 55% margin (up from 51% last yr but below 64% pre pandemic). That's £5.5M GP. However cash at

March 21 - £5.8m
Sept 21 - £4.7m (£180k loss per mth)
Marc 22 - £1.5m (533k loss per mth) - remember the £2 mil of taxpayers money is on the books)

Then came the cash as previously explained. But have the losses improved?

To be fair that should go in the "narrow escape" box. It recovered during the day and at one point was even 0.9% up. On the volumes seen the spread on junk stocks can make a big difference.

Only 34 trades all day so volume poor.

My feeling is that most are so deep under water that they have decided not to sell. At these sort of prices I doubt people have got that much to lose unless they have kept pouring money in and are now deep in the ka ka in which case they will keep kidding themselves it isn't a loss until they sell. Upshot - not much activity on a stock that should have hit 2.5p today. Some have decided to sell and to those I am truly sorry for what must have been a horrible and painful experience. Got the t-shirt myself so much sympathy.

Still think this has got 2p written all over it - assuming it doesn't go to zero/get suspended.

They had 1.5 in net cash back in march. Then the sale of which they have got another 1.3. Plus the dilution was another 1.2 before costs.

So without costs about 4 million.

Against that was 2 million from the government which was on the books but has asked to be returned. Plus 300K loss per month (not costs so burn higher) from march to end of July at least so call that 1.5 mill plus costs for sale and dilution - say 250k.

So that leaves 250- 500 K imo IF sales have remained 82% up since the trading update on the health side.

They may get 4m from the Kenya study thing (which appears really sketchy to me). They will get 4% in payments for the CD4 side. They may not need to pay back the 2m to the taxpayer.

This is VERY back of the fag packet btw and misses out loads of stuff that I cannot be bothered to factor.

Upshot is they are in the brown stuff.

Has Caley2 been banned? No green filter lines since 8:38am

I think it is a busted flush. Expect a "new" ramper here soon.

Clearly not. FFS. This is a good brand. What is going on?

That is a good point.

My bet is they are arguing with the auditors and the auditors are not prepared to sign off the accounts as proposed.

Now, we all know some of the creative techniques that can be used to paint a better picture of a companies accounts. So just how bad are the proposals?

My guess is that the sale of Alva was agreed in principle in the previous accounting period so they may be trying to backdate some of revenue from the sale into this. The other argument may be around the governments demand for the money back. Will depend on how this has been done. My guess this won't be listed as a liability on the books but noted as a risk.

The above would indicate that they need some front loading of the assets from sale to be an ongoing viable business.

As information is scarce, despite the promises on the call last year of communicating better, this is just a guess.

Caley2

The tinfoil reference wasn't about drug taking - it was for hat making. You seem totally paranoid and unable to make a good call. You don't appear to understand the complexities of the English language. You constant ramping, refusal to answer simple questions etc etc makes me feel that you're not genuine.

This could be for a number of reasons but you only appeared when ODX were starting to see things go wrong. So, trolling, fantasists, boiler room ramper, etc etc. I don't know. I don't think English is your primary language or you hide it well - you could be a second account of someone else. I don't know or care tbh.

I don't think you're invested by any meaningful amount but I do know one thing. You have zero credibility. None. Nadda. I hope you get paid for what you post because the alternative would be tragic.