RE: How will the year end for CNSL?16 Dec 2024 16:38
Captain
Actually, when you take a look at the placings, the sell offs etc the "cash balance" is shocking. So much money has been squandered. Not a bean of criticism by holders, which is just weird.
Obviously, lots of ways to manipulate the cash balance as well and cash is not a reflection of health. In some cases a strong balance sheet but lack of activity is a red flag (see also not using debt to drive growth).
I don't care the main product isn't scientifically rigorous. When they were a science led company I did care but they aren't anymore. They're a lifestyle business, its just they don't seem to understand that yet.
As for the sales team - well the secret of creating a business is that unless you have something unique it will always take much longer to deliver results than you think. My rule of thumb is that with realistic targets a sales person should start producing results in 3 months and be hitting target after 6. From a pure new sales basis you cannot always blame the sales guy for a lack of performance entirely if the marketing support isn't there. To get a sales and marketing machine working well needs skill and a heap of luck and will normally take around 12 months to start humming. (Will caveat that by saying sales people are worse than farmers and will always blame someone else for not delivering. The red flag is a big sales pipeline but this constantly being delayed).
This ties into my benchmarks for end of year revenue. I think they are banking on Q4 to deliver. I'm not sure if that will work. I also do not think they are throwing enough at it. Not enough bodies and not enough marketing. Thats before we discuss development of the brand, which is essential.
I have no idea where they will end up. I see the potential. I know the benchmarks to judge them against. It is up to them on the outcome. I still think they have a chance but it could go either way. I don't see any certainty in outcome that is for sure. Time will tell....