Member Info for Asperger1

This report finds that Sir Keir Starmer’s flagship proposed returns deal with the EU is impossible without the acceptance of migrant quotas from the EU in return. The assessment and analysis of evidence from journalistic, academic and political sources, as well as from Government data and projections, indicates that a Starmer government would mean higher levels of net migration than the status quo, with plausible estimates of increases of more than 250,000 per year. This report also finds little room for optimism that any announced or anticipated policy package could ‘stop the boats’ or reduce the financing of international smuggling gangs

https://henryjacksonsociety.org/publications/the-prospective-immigration-policy-of-sir-keir-starmers-labour-party/

Gap watch Lloy -

3rd-7th May 24 - 52.9p

21st-24th Feb 20 - 55.17p - closed

Lloy Current SP - 55.5p

10th-13th Jan 20 - 60.1p

23rd-24th Jun 16 - 71.1p

27th-28th Oct 15 - 77.1p

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Gap watch Barc -

2nd-3rd Nov 23 - 133.4p

19th-20th Feb 24 - 150.46p

20th-21st Mar 24 - 175.98p

17th-18th April 24 - 181.1p

19th-22nd April 24 - 185.9p

22nd-23rd April 24 - 190.04p

24th-25th April 24 - 193.44p

3rd-7th May 24 - 203.4p

Barc Current SP - 216.75p

11th-12th Aug 15 - 278p

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Gap watch NWG -

2nd-3rd Nov 23 - 182.35p

20th-21st Mar 24 - 246.6p

21st-22nd Mar 24 - 253.8p

27th-28th Mar 24 - 263.1p

19th-22nd April 24 - 277.2p

25th-26th April 24 - 290.8p

NWG Current SP - 321p

23rd-24th Feb 11 - 471p

11th-12th Dec 08 - 648p

Based on LSE tech chart --- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/playinggaps.asp --- https://allstarcharts.com/gaps-need-filled/

Interim divi increase history -

2015 - 0.75

2016 - 0.85 +13.3%

2017 - 1p +17.6%

2018 - 1.07 +7%

2019 - 1.12 +4.67%

2020 - 0 - Covid

2021 - 0.67

2022 - 0.8 +19.4%

2023 - 0.92p +15%

2024 - 1.06p? +15%

Key dates over the coming weeks/months -

Lloy divi pay day - 21st May

Lloy H1 results - 25th July

UK GE - Mid Aug?

Lloy interim pay day - Sept?

Lloy Q3 - 23rd Oct

US election - 5th Nov

Labours Economic Collapse 2027/28?

55.17p Gap close today? - 60.1p calling?

Countdown to Lloy divi pay day - Tues 21st May -

If you miss it, don't worry - there'll be another in Sept lol

#Possible Divi Increase - 1.06p

Fair chance NWG (or the Tories) won't want to risk a Labour Gov. becoming a shareholder - Looking forward to a per election 'Tell Sid' next month - letters of interest already being sent out

CITRA - Here for Britain’s Renters - https://www.citra.co.uk/

If/When HMG offloads its remaining stock via a 'Tell Sid' offer - It's going to have to be at a heck more discount than 10% for me to be interested

LTI - Lloy Buybacks - just an attempt to adjust expectations - the trick is to live long enough to reap the benefit

Looks like a gd day to pick up a few MARS

Total voting rights projection? - It's might take a while . . .

Feb 2023 67.4bn

Feb 2024 64bn (-3.4bn)

Feb 2025 60bn? (-4bn)

Feb 2026 55bn? (-5bn)

Feb 2027 50bn? (-5bn)

Feb 2028 45bn? (-5nb)

Feb 2029 40bn? (-5bn)

Feb 2030 35bn? (-5bn)

Etc etc

Government exit would end 'sorry tale' for Britain and bank, NatWest Chair says

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/natwest-ceo-sees-material-opportunities-ai-2024-04-23/

Clutching OLR??? - It's already old news

At the spring budget, Jeremy Hunt announced the government’s intention to sell its stake in NatWest. The plan is to do this via a retail sale direct to individuals, rather than through the stock market.

The government naturally doesn’t want to sell the shares for less than they’re worth. But equally, unless they’re offered at a discount, investors might as well buy the shares on the open market.

That means the sale’s likely to be offered below the price the shares trade at on the stock market. And if that happens, I’d expect the NatWest share price to fall to close the gap.

On the face of it, this is a strong reason not to buy the stock at the moment. If there’s a discounted sale coming that’s likely to pull the price lower, waiting for that would seem like a good idea.

https://www.fool.co.uk/2024/04/04/should-i-buy-natwest-shares-today-or-wait-for-a-government-sale/

My big fat Lloy Divi is due in next week - it'll be waiting if/when HMG announces their NWG public sale

The lower gaps on Barc and NWG worry me -

Also HMG's possible public offering of its remaining NWG shares next month?

Anyone else had a letter asking if they're interested?

Guardian article near 3 months old -

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/28/jeremy-hunt-to-announce-uk-government-sale-of-natwest-shares

The UK government will look to raise as much as £3bn-£4bn from selling a chunk of its shares in NatWest bank to the public in a measure expected to be announced by the chancellor in his budget next week.

Jeremy Hunt said in his autumn statement last year that he would “explore options” for a retail offering of part of the state’s remaining one-third share in the bank, now worth about £6.7bn.

Pre election public sale of HMG remaining NWG shares ???

Seems The Capital Group paid £110m

The RNS suggest HMG holding reduced by ~1%, 27.93% to 26.95%

1% of the shares in issue is ~87.4m shares

87.4m shares for £110m = ~125p each?

Last week I had a letter from Barclays asking if I would be interested in a possible disposal of NWG next month

https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/12/capital-group-natwest-shares-uk-government

Is HMG set to sell off its remaining 38.6% NWG stake next month?

Could ~3.37bn shares be on offer for around half the currently 320p?

Sure would explain all the lower gaps

Gap watch NWG -

2nd-3rd Nov 23 - 182.35p

20th-21st Mar 24 - 246.6p

21st-22nd Mar 24 - 253.8p

27th-28th Mar 24 - 263.1p

19th-22nd April 24 - 277.2p

25th-26th April 24 - 290.8p

23rd-24th Feb 11 - 471p

11th-12th Dec 08 - 648p

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/28/jeremy-hunt-to-announce-uk-government-sale-of-natwest-shares

Gap watch Barc -

2nd-3rd Nov 23 - 133.4p

19th-20th Feb 24 - 150.46p

20th-21st Mar 24 - 175.98p

17th-18th April 24 - 181.1p

19th-22nd April 24 - 185.9p

22nd-23rd April 24 - 190.04p

24th-25th April 24 - 193.44p

3rd-7th May 24 - 203.4p

11th-12th Aug 15 - 278p

Https://www.distance.to/London/Rwanda