Member Info for Asperger1

Serious question - what are the warning signs of an imminent market/financial collapse? - The way Labour is going, I'm thinking it could be sooner than expected

Labour Lies re £20bn -

IFS warns of Labour and Tory ‘conspiracy of silence’ over future tax and spending plans

This article is more than 4 months old

Toughest outlook for public finances for 80 years means next government must find tens of billions in cuts or tax rises, says leading think-tank

from March 2024 - https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/mar/07/ifs-warns-of-labour-and-tory-conspiracy-of-silence-over-future-tax-and-spending-plans

Oldbrian - Weekends get a little random - For Lloy basics check out my regular Saturday posts

Gap watch Lloy - Current SP - 60.66p

3rd-7th May 24 - 52.9p

3rd-4th July 24 - 56p

4th-5th July 24 - 57.3p closed

10th-13th Jan 20 - 60.1p

23rd-24th Jun 16 - 71.1p

27th-28th Oct 15 - 77.1p

~~~~~~~

Gap watch Barc - Current SP - 231.4p

2nd-3rd Nov 23 - 133.4p

19th-20th Feb 24 - 150.46p

20th-21st Mar 24 - 175.98p

17th-18th April 24 - 181.1p

19th-22nd April 24 - 185.9p

22nd-23rd April 24 - 190.04p

24th-25th April 24 - 193.44p

25th-26th July 24 - 228.05p New Gap Up

11th-12th Aug 15 - 278p

~~~~~~~

Gap watch NWG - Current SP - 361.9p

2nd-3rd Nov 23 - 182.35p

20th-21st Mar 24 - 246.6p

21st-22nd Mar 24 - 253.8p

27th-28th Mar 24 - 263.1p

19th-22nd April 24 - 277.2p

25th-26th April 24 - 290.8p

17th-18th July 24 - 330.4p Closed

25th-26th July 24 - 340p New Gap Up

23rd-24th Feb 11 - 471p

11th-12th Dec 08 - 648p

Based on LSE tech chart --- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/playinggaps.asp --- https://allstarcharts.com/gaps-need-filled/

Recent Interim divi increase history

2020 - 0

2021 - 0.67

2022 - 0.8 +19.4%

2023 - 0.92p +15%

2024 - 1.06p +15%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This week's Buybacks -

Monday - 18,848,316

Tuesday - 27,928,403

Wednesday - 5,548,926

Thursday - 8,540,659

Friday - 435,335

Key dates over the coming weeks/months -

Interim Ex divi - 1st Aug

Lloy interim payday - 10th Sept

FCA Car Finance report - 25th Sept

Lloy Q3 - 23rd Oct

US election - 5th Nov

Mr Meerkats YE2024 comp. last trading day 2024

Labours Economic Collapse 2026/27?

Yes LTI - With a circa 5% divi return + a circa 15% increase in SP helped by the buyback program, what not to like here!!!

Fingers crossed for good news re car scam 25th Sept

Good to see the 2024 interim divi coming in spot on my +15% projection - hope we keep the +15% rate increase next year, I don't see why not -

Final 2025 2.44?

Interim 2025 1.22p? (+15% on 2024)

Final 2024 2.12p?

Interim 2024 1.06p (+15% on 2023)

Final 2023 1.84p

Interim 2023 0.92p (+15% on 2022)

Final 2022 1.6p

Interim 2022 0.80p (+19.4% on 2021)

Final 2021 1.33p

Interim 2021 0.67p

Final 2020 0.57p

MVarawa - 'Labour said that they would not raise taxes' . . . on "Working People"

Starmer/Reeves definition of 'Working People' -

"People who earn their living day to day, no car, no savings"

https://news.sky.com/story/labours-rachel-reeves-clarifies-working-people-are-people-who-go-out-to-work-13155353

Everyone else is fair game !!!

Gap watch - New gap up on NWG this week

Gap watch Lloy - Current SP - 59.14p

3rd-7th May 24 - 52.9p

3rd-4th July 24 - 56p

4th-5th July 24 - 57.3p

10th-13th Jan 20 - 60.1p

23rd-24th Jun 16 - 71.1p

27th-28th Oct 15 - 77.1p

~~~~~~~

Gap watch Barc - Current SP - 228.65p

2nd-3rd Nov 23 - 133.4p

19th-20th Feb 24 - 150.46p

20th-21st Mar 24 - 175.98p

17th-18th April 24 - 181.1p

19th-22nd April 24 - 185.9p

22nd-23rd April 24 - 190.04p

24th-25th April 24 - 193.44p

11th-12th Aug 15 - 278p

~~~~~~~

Gap watch NWG - Current SP - 335.5p

2nd-3rd Nov 23 - 182.35p

20th-21st Mar 24 - 246.6p

21st-22nd Mar 24 - 253.8p

27th-28th Mar 24 - 263.1p

19th-22nd April 24 - 277.2p

25th-26th April 24 - 290.8p

17th-18th July 24 - 330.4p New

23rd-24th Feb 11 - 471p

11th-12th Dec 08 - 648p

Based on LSE tech chart --- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/playinggaps.asp --- https://allstarcharts.com/gaps-need-filled/

This week's Buybacks -

Monday - 0

Tuesday - 1,861,470

Wednesday - 10,227,935

Thursday - 4,675,609

Friday - 3,473,810

Key dates over the coming weeks/months -

Lloy H1 results - 25th July

Rachel Reeves Emergency Budget - July/Aug?

Lloy interim pay day - Sept?

FCA Car Finance report - 25th Sept

Lloy Q3 - 23rd Oct

US election - 5th Nov

Mr Meerkats YE2024 comp. last trading day 2024

Labours Economic Collapse 2026/27?

Interim 2024 - 1.06p? +15%

Final 2024 - 2.12p?

Total for yr - 3.18p?

Dorfan, you ask - "how many more years can it keep increasing by 15%?"

Well, First and foremost, the post tax profit has to be there - and that's down to the state of the economy -

In theory the divi increase could be substantially more that 15%, but the Board has decided to take advantage of the relatively low SP to operating a Buyback Program -

Currently LLoy dedicate ~50% of surplus profit to divi's & ~50% to buybacks

On the plus side - each and every buyback enriches the remaining shares

Q - How many more years of 15% increase?

A - I don't know !!!

Gap watch - Gaps closed on Barc & NWG this week

Gap watch Lloy - Current SP - 59.1p

3rd-7th May 24 - 52.9p

3rd-4th July 24 - 56p

4th-5th July 24 - 57.3p

10th-13th Jan 20 - 60.1p

23rd-24th Jun 16 - 71.1p

27th-28th Oct 15 - 77.1p

~~~~~~~

Gap watch Barc - Current SP - 222.5p

2nd-3rd Nov 23 - 133.4p

19th-20th Feb 24 - 150.46p

20th-21st Mar 24 - 175.98p

17th-18th April 24 - 181.1p

19th-22nd April 24 - 185.9p

22nd-23rd April 24 - 190.04p

24th-25th April 24 - 193.44p

3rd-4th July 24 - 218p - closed

11th-12th Aug 15 - 278p

~~~~~~~

Gap watch NWG - Current SP - 323.6p

2nd-3rd Nov 23 - 182.35p

20th-21st Mar 24 - 246.6p

21st-22nd Mar 24 - 253.8p

27th-28th Mar 24 - 263.1p

19th-22nd April 24 - 277.2p

25th-26th April 24 - 290.8p

3rd-4th July 24 - 322p - Closed

23rd-24th Feb 11 - 471p

11th-12th Dec 08 - 648p

Based on LSE tech chart --- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/playinggaps.asp --- https://allstarcharts.com/gaps-need-filled/

Interim divi increase history

2015 - 0.75

2016 - 0.85 +13.3%

2017 - 1p +17.6%

2018 - 1.07 +7%

2019 - 1.12 +4.67%

2020 - 0

2021 - 0.67

2022 - 0.8 +19.4%

2023 - 0.92p +15%

2024 - 1.06p? +15%

Key dates over the coming weeks/months -

Lloy H1 results - 25th July

Rachel Reeves Emergency Budget - July/Aug?

Lloy interim pay day - Sept?

FCA Car Finance report - 25th Sept

Lloy Q3 - 23rd Oct

US election - 5th Nov

Mr Meerkats YE2024 comp. last trading day 2024

Labours Economic Collapse 2026/27?

Maybe the algo's broken? or on a break? - Over £1bn still sitting unused in the buyback pot

Starmer says we should think of him as 'Blair on Steroids' - therefore I'm thinking UK recession in 2025?

LTI - Obviously the buyback program doesn't consider Lloy worth buying at the moment