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OMG, has anyone seen what's going on?!!! ....never in my worst nightmares. Is it correct?!!
A bit of different news!! :-)
"And staying inside for weeks on end will have other long-lasting effects, too: for weeks, people in China have been predicting a baby boom – the result of enforced one-on-one time, they suspect. That’s been coupled with the news that at least one government office that processes divorces was swamped when it reopened to the public on Friday"
May be of interest to some!!
https://www.statista.com/statistics/262860/uk-brent-crude-oil-price-changes-since-1976/
Budgie, this has well stuffed me but, on the brighter side, if the market malaise (let alone oil) continues, old Trumpy boy may find getting re-elected that much more difficult. Also, with regard oil longer term, the Russians may well turn out to be correct - any sustained pressure on oil will kill a lot of American shale.
PMO is in a very unfortunate position now ...if the debt hadn't been due to mature next year, then they would have been fine to just ride it all out. It really has become the elephant in the room. It's a git, but... !!
Disappointingly / annoyingly, I think ARCM will wait and play this one out. Love to be wrong however!!
Try not to think Down, it could fry that brain cell of yours!
I joked on that last line and what do I go and read on the BBC "...President Donald Trump said he had told pharmaceutical companies to accelerate work on a vaccine..".
Or, put another way, we developed the thing in the first place, surely we must know who to fix it?!!
EC, there is a very good reason that the pharmaceutical industries are slow on the development of vaccines for this type of thing - financial. They have been caught out many times before where they have produced a vaccine and the 'event' has all been over by then and/ or not enough people have required; it costs them a lot. In this particular case (as far as I am aware) there are something like 20 potential vaccines being developed / looked at. How many different companies that is, I have no idea, but someone will (may) win and the others are probably going to 'lose'.
Whilst I generally believe in the economics of the free market, this is one area that would perhaps be much better served by the State and, idealistically, by a 'world' pool.
The only reason that the Ebola 'vaccine' was out so quickly was that it bypassed many human trials as Ebola killed full stop .. about 81% of people with coronavirus have mild symptoms. I'll let you do some maths, but the market isn't huge for the reward (see previous comment!!)
Of course, as it's election year for the Tango one (!!), we could possibly see America come up with a vaccine and release it within a month lol (not that I'm a cynic you understand).
Peltata, thanks for posting. Based on that, and not negating the obvious (inevitable?!!) increases elsewhere, we should also see quite a lot more in the recovered group over the next few days.
My take as it stands isn't so much the virus itself, but where it leaves PMO with regard to the asset purchase, Placing and RI. At present, and even with a best case scenario, it is likely to be several months before things return back to normal. Without a vaccine, and until one is freely available, then the risk, moreover fear, factor will remain; this will ultimately suppress our SP and could do for many more months after the 'all clear'. Any placing and RI need a decent SP in order to avoid a substantial dilution.
Under normal market volatility, I would not be concerned however, and assuming the RI and Placing are deferred / cancelled altogether, then where does that leave the debt maturity? It may well be, for an increase in the interest / coupon rate, that many of the current creditors will still be happy to extend, but this is an unknown. The Zama delay has probably been somewhat fortuitous (assuming still sold this year), and a decent recovery in oil price within a month or two, will still leave us paying down debt nicely. ... BUT, the elephant in the room is still that maturity, especially with ARCM still hanging around.
I am hoping that we get some clarity on Thursday. If that debt can be rolled over irrespective of the asset purchase, then all is good for anyone long term-ish (**assuming that World reaction doesn't get any more out of hand than it already is!).
Thoughts anyone?
EC, on the bright side, that river water is probably more valuable than oil or anything else at present!!
It's the only thing that I have been lucky on ... live in a property with river land et al, but the flood plain is the other side as we are a lot higher. All the views. but none of the issues. Feel for you and anyone else with the Severn Seas (or wherever) in your house.
BTW, manufacture isn't the issue as that will correct as and when ...the issue is IF this really does kick-off, then the fear induced by the media will see demand for everything (including the social pint) fall through the floor. I think it can be and will be contained ... but the next week will tell. If not, ah well there's s*d all I can do apart from wash, keep calm and carry on (without any money of course!)!!
...in amongst the doom and gloom (and 'down'-ers on here once again!!), taken from the Beeb...
"World Health Organization officials are giving their daily press briefing. WHO chief Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus started by saying more than 20 vaccines were currently being developed against the new coronavirus - with the first results of tests expected in the next few weeks."
I think it's clear that things will continue downwards for a while yet, however there is a big difference between a limited hit for, let us say, a quarter as opposed to a year. If vaccines are found to be effective, irrespective of eventual release / mass production date, then that is the hope to at least halt some of the hysteria if not the virus itself.
Personally my fear is not this virus, but what the World will do when we eventually get something really nasty. The media runs the risk of become irrelevant unless it becomes more balanced. As has just been quoted in the US, "switch of the TV for 24 hours"!!
EC, read my posting from the BBC last night ...may clarify your understanding.
Wow, that wasn't pretty ..-4.42%. Going to be another sh*t day tomorrow on that basis. In my view (not that it will change anything or is worth anything) is that this has got completely out of hand. As and when this does come to pass, the whole lot will go in to overdrive ... not sure it will be for many months yet, but ho hum ..!
No in a nutshell ...see one of my posts from yesterday with a BBC article from a few years ago.
Yep, more than aware, but i) it will still make a dent ii) if oil remains low / too low for long, the unhedged percentage could be loss making iii) the RI / Placing is at risk the longer this goes on iv) what happens to the debt and, ergo, extension if the RI does not proceed - will the lenders still be happy to extend just based on the increased coupon?
Sounds somewhat negative when I read it, but that's the position as it stands. I like PMO a lot and believe that they have come a long way which is why I remain ... but I am also realistic and realise that this current environment may last a long time yet.
Good luck.
EC, 8 schools shut already ...no containment?!!
Agree, the need to be careful ... supermarket trolleys, public transport, shop workers ... ! We will either have to contain it or live with it and hope that we are in the 98-99%.
Groover, yep may be cr*p, but it's a self-fulfilling event now. The hysteria is in the markets and in the population like it or not - Japan closing its schools for almost a month. We are talking absolutely tiny numbers in most of the World at present so, one would hope, it can be contained (not holding my breath though - umm, perhaps I should lol)
EC, I understand your general jist, but China has a population (est.) of about 1.4bn, not 2bn.
I think you have, however, spotted the elephant in the room - China can, did and is able to lock down populations not far off the entire populous of the UK; it just won't / can't happen here. Without containment of some form, we will all get it before a vaccine is out.
As ever, over time, things will recover and Thunberg will once again take her place on the front page, but this could be a very long slog. Unless it is contained and things show improvement / 'eradication' over the next few weeks, then we could be ruling out the rest of this year. ... and that will be the litmus test in my view, do things get back to normal irrespective, or is this going to be the start of the next recession? One thing is for sure now, this quarter's results aren't going to look great for many companies.
Hyd, from the Beeb:
"There is still much that scientists don’t know about this virus – and that includes the possibility of it infecting people more than once.
Reports from China and Japan suggest that a small number of people recovered from the virus and then tested positive again within weeks.
But there may be several reasons why that appears to be the case.
Firstly, the virus may not have completely gone away before they were discharged and allowed home, and then may have got worse again.
Secondly, although tests are used to determine if the virus is still present, they are not always accurate and may not be sensitive enough to detect dormant virus or very low-level symptoms.
Anal swabs, which have been used, are not totally reliable at picking up the virus either.
The fact is that more information on these specific cases is needed before scientists can come to any conclusions about whether the virus gives future immunity.
If reinfection is possible, some experts say the virus could act like the flu or common cold and infect people on a seasonal basis."
Please can you detail the link to that information. As far as I'm aware, there is nothing saying that it can remain dormant or otherwise ...it could be simply as case of a second infection. The immune system does not stop you getting something twice in all cases, just means it knows what to do so, in general, symptoms should be less severe and pass quicker.