Stifel comments22 Mar 2018 11:55
We have updated our forecasts to reflect the higher
interest cost (�56m in FY18E, �70m thereafter), increased cost of bonding and assume that all warrants
are exercised, reducing our FY18E/FY19E earnings forecasts by 55%/60%. We acknowledge that these forecasts contain a high degree of uncertainty and may well change again materially post-strategy update. Whilst the picture remains unclear and any operational recovery is unlikely to be linear, we upgrade to Buy with a 130p target price, valuing the group on 6.5x FY18E EBITDA, before deducting net debt and the pension deficit and dividing by 182m shares, which assumes all warrants are exercised. The agreement with lenders reduces near-term uncertainty on financing, and implies no further material downside from EfW or the wider contract review, two key areas of concern. It also suggests the lenders will allow the group time in implementing a solution to structurally reduce its net debt.