Member Info for Arbitrader75

I don't expect farmin is on the cards for RT, but I would not be surprised if he conjures up a new rabbit in the next licence round.
After all he's not particularly interested in producing oil, but rather proving his theories on fb.
Now with 2 clear paths towards proving up and producing oil I bet he's letting his mind wander to new projects elsewhere.
He has already mentioned there are plenty more opportunities for him to take on.

you don't have excel yourself andy?

https://audioboom.com/posts/6993152-tlou-energy-tlou-solo-oil-solo-and-malcy-on-hur-coro-eco-frr-sdx-far-au-sou-amer-bpc-fpm

starts @22.50

Fred, so this news today makes you halve the future SP?
I think I know enough about your analysis now.

@ 9.00, according to Malcy

Aaaand we're off

uhmm I don't think you understand how traders operate by your comments here.

Keeps buying, now over 10%

Marmaris what do you make of this new guy. is he the one for the job we need?

nen2319, funny how perspectives differ.
his talk on hur is exactly why I have him filtered.

Normally I just filter people that spout clear bs like mm conspiracy or the like, works wonders.
The same goes for some that have the same bullhorn attitude on several boards I follow.
This board has some posters with first hand knowledge of the offshore oil industry I clearly lack, therefore interest me.
Having said that;the mere mention of upstairs and downstairs was the only thing I needed to know about certain people.
Please please remain upstairs and stay away from here.

for starters oil is up 2% today, but I think the presentation posted today certainly helps.

I'm confused, what is the point of holding cash in a brokerage account?

a marxist that still truly believes in the socialst ideal..
never thought that the day would come the British would give such a muppet a platform.

you are quite the fan of plucking sayings from everywhere to suit your current narrative aren't you.
Quod licet Iovi, non licet bovi.

"A handful of patience is worth a bushel of brains"
Dutch Proverb"

no it isn't.

@ 3450

Taking the acquisition plus $5.5bn expected capex gives $6.4bn total for the project, or $19,400 per tonne of production (330kt first 10 years).
That is more than Quellaveco in Chile (Anglo American,$18.8k), but 1. is in a higher-risk jurisdiction;
2. is based on a pre-feasibility study only (Quellaveco = fully engineered with all licences);
3. is dependent on government infrastructure, which still needs to be built; and
4. assumes government tax breaks.
Thus we think this purchase adds considerable uncertainty, and may be a drain on cash for the next 10 years – we do not envisage the company paying a divi for the foreseeable future.
We would also ask why Koksay is not the main focus, given familiar jurisdiction

The deal had been flagged in the media (e.g. here) & as such that the announcement is not wholly unexpected although we believe it has been an overhang for a number of investors, based on our recent conversations. Baimskaya undoubtedly provides a long pipe-line of growth as highlighted by copper equivalent production ~5% pa cagr 2030 vs. 2018 compared to -2% pa currently.
However, pro-forma leverage will increase materially e.g. ~3.2x by YE’22 at spot vs. ~1.1x pre, and will continue to grow into next decade ahead of first production.
Furthermore, as highlighted when we downgraded our recommendation in June (see here), we believe the market will likely attractive a higher equity risk premia given Russian risk.
At this stage, we also hold reservations that a project coming on-line late next decade will be a catalyst for a re-rating in the equity particularly given the company already provided steady growth, was de-leveraging and there was a potential for a re-start of shareholder returns.

Remember with the FY17 results in February, the company in response to speculation that it was looking to buy the project had said that it was looking at different projects.
The deal value then had been speculated to be c.US$1 bn. (Mining Journal).
As such, we believe today’s announcement will not be a total surprise, although some may question timing as the company is already in the process of ramping-up production at Aktogay phase 2.
The c.US$436mn in cash spend together with the capex spend of c.US$5.5bn will drive up leverage, we estimate to over 3 times by FY22, assuming the capex spend starts in FY19.
In our view, the company could look to bring on a partner to share the capex load