Jefferies comments23 Apr 2018 13:01
PFC has once again reached our target price but this time we retain Buy-rating and increase Price Target to 670p (from 600p) due to a positive impression visiting PFC's core Middle East business.
While Corporate overhang (SFO) & expansionary strategies (IES, JDS vessel) have de-rated the stock materially in recent years, Petrofac's core E&C business has continued to deliver and stands at the heart of a much more coherent & focused forward strategy, in our view.
First, the engineering scale and complexity of projects undertaken by Petrofac was something we actually hadn't fully appreciated until we saw it in person.
Second, the position of Petrofac as a top-tier EPC contractor, if not contractor of choice, is clearly true in core markets of Middle East & North Africa.
Third, these qualities don't happen quickly or by accident or have been acquired via M&A. PFC has grown organically by building up a track record of delivery & capability through decades of presence in core oil & gas markets which creates key relationships and trust from both NOC and IOC clients.
Whatever happens with SFO, this company is carrying on regardless and has a delivery history and capability which sets it apart in core markets.
Oil & Gas remains the sector of focus but capabilities within that sector are increasing (Refining).
Growth into new sectors is possible through engineering capability and JV-partnering (Offshore wind, Petrochemicals, reimbursable O&M).
The same is true for geographical growth. Overall however, we were impressed with a strategy of incremental growth built on a foundation of project delivery excellence.
We believe investors can take comfort with that when compared with past PFC growth strategies. We also contrast PFC's strategy & valuation against the "broadening" strategy of Wood Group acquired mainly via M&A.
We reiterate our Buy and raise our DCF-based TP to 719p (from 570p)
. Management re-affirmed that it is committed to maximising shareholder returns through a combination of financial deleveraging (low capex + asset disposals) and (potentially) further cost-cutting initiatives.
We also see scope for consensus upgrades in the short term.
Petrofac is now our preferred stock in the sector.