Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Personally I would rather see that dividend money put to work in drilling, happy to wait an extra year if that means increasing the barrels considerably.
very solid considering the new regulations, it remains a cash machine.
For the past two years, we have consistently maintained one of the most bullish oil price outlooks on the street. Despite recent bearish U.S. oil inventory builds, our already bullish 2019/2020 global oil supply/demand model has recently become even more bullish due largely to deteriorating supply outlooks for both Iranian and Venezuelan exports as well as further clarity on IMO 2020.
After raising our oil price forecast in April and again in July, we are now raising our oil price forecast again – maybe the third time will be the charm!
The bottom line is get ready for triple digit oil prices in the next few years.
It is important to note that this is not just a near-term issue for the next year or two: the picture beyond 2020 continues to suggest higher long-term oil prices after we refine our assumptions for global oil demand growth, U.S. base decline rates, OPEC production capacity, and non-U.S. supply.
Bottom line: We now believe that oil prices over the next two years must increase to levels that are high enough to materially slow down global demand growth.
There are three primary reasons that we are raising our oil price forecast for a third time this year:
First, Venezuelan oil production continues to deteriorate at a much faster rate than we had predicted at the beginning of the year.
Secondly, the sanctions that the U.S. has placed upon Iran are already having a much greater impact on Iranian exports/production that we thought just a few months ago.
Finally, it is increasingly clear that the consequences of IMO 2020 will effectively mean a 1 to 2 million bpd reduction in global oil supplies starting late 2019.
The consequences of these lower oil supply estimates are that oil prices must increase to levels that are sufficiently high to begin meaningfully slowing global demand growth over the next few years.
Accordingly, we are raising our 2019 forecast by $10/Bbl (or ~15%), to $77.50/Bbl WTI and $90/Bbl Brent.
For 2020, the cyclical peak year, our price deck rises even more sharply, to $92.50 WTI and $100 Brent (representing about a 25% increase from our prior estimates).
Beyond 2020, we are raising our price deck by $5, to $75 WTI and $80 Brent. Not only is our new price deck at the high end of consensus, but it is even more striking when compared to the longer-term backwardated futures curve. Specifically, these new out-year oil price estimates are now about 30% above current futures “strip” pricing.
While we do not think that triple-digit oil prices will become the new normal, at least temporarily that is what the market should require to squeeze demand out of the system.
which would be roughly $9 per barrel of 2P?
Buying Shell Denmark assets for 1.9 bln dollars:
Included in the transaction are proven and probable (2P) reserves of 209 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) based on an independent CPR assessment as per year-end 2017, of which 65% are liquids.
Further, Noreco estimates significant reserves and production growth coming from existing resources (discoveries, EOR initiatives & new projects).
Shell’s share of production from DUC in 2017 was 67 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboepd).
Noreco expects to maintain strong production in the years to come.
The DUC portfolio has attractive economics, with 2017 opex of USD 13 per boe.
As the Tyra hub is being redeveloped, the portfolio will be revitalised and offer improved economics accompanied by prolonged field life. Liquids production volumes are protected through a guarantee lasting from signing of the Acquisition through 2020.
Looking at the book it's obvious some are stop-hunting as volumes are very thin.
CNN reporting that the Saudi’s are about to admit Kashoggi was killed during an interrogation. Surely this will put a lot of pressure on the international community to come up with some sort of action. This can have severe ramifications for the world of oil trading.
indeed someone playing games today
Any of the resident oilers care to comment on the 2019 well programme?
3 GWA drills with Transocean Leader to commence in Q1 2019, rig contract in place
https://soundcloud.com/user-93903917/dealcast-randgold-barrick-11-october
Employee charged by Tanzania corruption bureau.
Charges re. to activities of a land taskforce
Nice little update here to confirm the progress, not unwelcome in the current market environment.
He knows exactly what's up, but just enjoys complaining on several bb's across multiple sites.
he really doesn't like the guy, so leave it.
this is not company specific, but a large market rotation punishing all stocks which a good last year or 6 months.
just have a look at stocks like fevertree or biotech for instance.
I'm assuming you did not remortgage your house for a short term 3 weeks trade, so don't be worried about blips that are just marketwide corrections.
the oil is still in the ground so i'm not worried.
when this all over we do need to have a chat about you putting all your eggs in one basket though..
he'll probably say he meant to be sarcastic and actually know how the pounds and pennies work, much like Trump wanted the UN assembly to laugh at him.
Someone is definitely stop hunting the pi's today again.
Trafigura: Iran oil loss could be 2M b/d, market expecting 1M b/d.
Guvnor: US sanctions will be enforced to the limit.
Vitol: Iran sanctions to have a major impact on fuel-oil market, massive impacts on product flows.
well this is what happens when a stock is mostly pi owned and they run for the hills when there is a little headwind.
if i ever saw a buy..
we are now 5 pounds below the sp in july when they said they would comfortably outperform previous estimates for the year.
I did, it was not meant to be public.