Member Info for AquaeSulis01

Thanks Biffa. Explanation from investopedia

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/convertible-bond-arbitrage.asp

Not sure that is true James; extract from my post yesterday

Just running through the End Dec 2018 posted Accounts with a Financial and Risk and Opportunity Manager head on, and worth highlighting the following with End 2019 Accounts in mind:
Income Statement
"The accounting for the Convertible Bond required the recognition of an embedded derivative liability related to the equity conversion option. The fair value of the embedded derivative is based on a simulation model which is impacted, in particular, by the volatility assumption applied and the Group's share price at the reporting date. The higher the assumed volatility and the higher the Group's share price, the more the fair value of the derivative liability increases. Any increase in the liability creates a corresponding non-cash charge in the Income Statement.
At 31 December 2017, the fair value of the embedded derivative liability was valued at $28.6 million. Between 31 December 2017 and 31 December 2018, Hurricane's share price rose from £0.31 to £0.44 per ordinary share, and the volatility assumption increased from 23.6% to 30.1%. The volatility assumption was calculated as a blended average of the trading history of the Group's own shares and shares in a relevant peer group, for a period of six months prior to the measurement date. It is assumed that this is an approximate forecast of the volatility in Hurricane's share price for the period to conversion. These movements have driven an increase in the derivative liability of $42.4 million, to a closing figure at 31 December 2018 of $71.0 million. Further share price rises would increase the liability and corresponding losses, assuming other factors remain the same. The majority of interest costs of $24.5 million for the Convertible Bond have been capitalised during the year. " SO LESS LIABILITY ON END 2019 RESULTS.

My wife would kill for a bottom that size

Think you need to rename yourself outbutnotdown if you're waiting for 1300

Having just read dspp's diatribe worth pointing out to him that his statement "From a reservoir appraisal perspective almost the most important well test HUR ought to be doing is to produce the wet well to determine which of those two extremes is more applicable. Instead they are preferring to test the dry well" is inaccurate. The individual well tests concluded before the 12th Dec, announcement on 2nd Dec read "As part of the data gathering exercise for the Lancaster EPS, the Company has been carrying out periods of production from the 205/21a-6 and 205/21a-7Z wells separately, to assess fluid dynamics and measure reservoir performance without the impact of interference from the other well. An interim update will be made WHEN THESE flow periods HAVE BEEN COMPLETED, which is expected to be LATER in DECEMBER 2019." Hence the 12th Dec signalled the end of individual tests, and the higher producing well of the two with minimal water cut is being run to maximise income whilst the data captured from the test period is fully analysed to optimise flow rates once both wells are running which makes perfect commercial sense to me.

Just running through the End Dec 2018 posted Accounts with a Financial and Risk and Opportunity Manager head on, and worth highlighting the following with End 2019 Accounts in mind:
Income Statement
"The accounting for the Convertible Bond required the recognition of an embedded derivative liability related to the equity conversion option. The fair value of the embedded derivative is based on a simulation model which is impacted, in particular, by the volatility assumption applied and the Group's share price at the reporting date. The higher the assumed volatility and the higher the Group's share price, the more the fair value of the derivative liability increases. Any increase in the liability creates a corresponding non-cash charge in the Income Statement.
At 31 December 2017, the fair value of the embedded derivative liability was valued at $28.6 million. Between 31 December 2017 and 31 December 2018, Hurricane's share price rose from £0.31 to £0.44 per ordinary share, and the volatility assumption increased from 23.6% to 30.1%. The volatility assumption was calculated as a blended average of the trading history of the Group's own shares and shares in a relevant peer group, for a period of six months prior to the measurement date. It is assumed that this is an approximate forecast of the volatility in Hurricane's share price for the period to conversion. These movements have driven an increase in the derivative liability of $42.4 million, to a closing figure at 31 December 2018 of $71.0 million. Further share price rises would increase the liability and corresponding losses, assuming other factors remain the same. The majority of interest costs of $24.5 million for the Convertible Bond have been capitalised during the year. " SO LESS LIABILITY ON END 2019 RESULTS.
Assessing the Viability of the Group
Key Risks highlighted were; "delay of first oil beyond the target date of H1 2019" - RISK CLOSED TARGET DATE MET
"A decline in oil prices to $50 per barrel (and no hedging entered into)" OIL CURRENTLY NORTH OF $60 per barrel SO CURRENTLY AN OPPORTUNITY COST IN OUR FAVOUR
"A reduction in the average production rate on the EPS as compared to the planned rate by 15%" CURRENTLY AHEAD OF PLANNED RATE AND FORECAST TO MEET FUTURE 2020 PLANNED RATE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY COST IN OUR FAVOUR
"An increase in fixed operating costs by 30%" NOTHING REPORTED TO INDICATE THIS HAS OCCURRED
"An adverse foreign exchange movement of 25%(a strengthening of sterling v dollar)" SOME BUT NOWHERE NEAR 25%

I would imagine it is to coincide with the actual v planned running of both wells end Jan 20 and ramp up to 20000 bopd

The sp is dropping I suspect, because Marshall Wace a re using th is period of uncertainty with no news to short on low volumes. Note another day where a big after hours buy is registered that dwarfs the u/t

Thanks all for the clarification

Only reason i ask is that in the 13th Dec RNS the statement reads "The Company is confident that the water cut observed is related to perched/stranded water, based on temperature data, lack of rate-dependency, and water production behaviour after shut-in periods." shouldn't the statement read lack of drawdown dependency? Just to make it clear, I am heavily invested here , have faith in the Company but do want to clarify my own understanding of waht's been said and written in the various publications and presentations.

Genghis ty for pinpointing the q % a, one quick question, where Dr T starts the response with a "For instance" does he say the water-cut is rate dependent?

Cebo,

Perhaps you can give me your expert interpretation of the attached then please?

Shut-in and choke-back analysis of the fluctuating Water Oil Ratio (WOR)data can provide clues to the problem type. Water-entry problems such as coning or a single fracture intersecting a deeper water layer will lead to a lower WOR during choke-back or shut-in. Fractures or a fault intersecting an overlying water layer have the opposite effect." https://petrowiki.org/Controlling_excess_water_production

Unless it's to do with initial amounts when the 7z well is flowed after an extended shut-in. My understanding is that perched water will build up following a shut-in as opposed to aquifer water which reduces.

Well I don't do short term forecasts but with the big buys by the Independent Director Lord Clanwilliam coupled with the strength of this independent appointment and the timing of the report to exonerate the financials in advance of Accounts being announced, subject to the anticipated clean bill of health I will predict 2800 on March 05th

5th March from memory

p.s make the late buy x2

Another huge late buy reported that dwarfs the U/T. Is this evidence of someone accumulating on the quiet or our resident declared shorter Marshall Wace rinsng and repeating to drive down the sp; answers on a postcard?16-Jan-20 17:35:19 26.35 2,576,491 Buy* 26.00 26.04 678.91k O

"It's a mystery how the market works. Why would there be any sellers when your going to get a 25% yield" Because you will still get the dividend as long as you join/rejoin the register by cop 24th Jan

Worth a reminder of the law regarding price sensitive information; HUR have put in the Dec 13 RNS their expectations to increase production by running both wells concurrently post end Jan 20, if anything had come to their attention that alters this statement they must announce it; No RNS no change so try and chill for now.
https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/6-101-7488?transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)&firstPage=true&bhcp=1

The Price Sensitive Information Guide
Key points in the UK Listing Authority's (UKLA) guidance on the dissemination of price sensitive information include:
Identifying unpublished price sensitive information
Companies should remember that, in general, the more the specific the information, the greater the risk of it being price sensitive. Companies should not disclose specific data, least of all financial information such as sales and profit figures, to selected groups rather than to the market as a whole.
The fact that a company has nothing to announce can be price sensitive. The UKLA will not require a company to make an announcement denying wholly unfounded rumours, but if the company does decide to respond, the UKLA prefers that it does so by issuing a formal announcement via a regulatory information service rather than by a comment to a journalist.
Certain potentially price sensitive information will already be in the public domain and so does not need to be announced. For example, a change in UK interest rates is information that can have an effect on the price of a company's listed securities; however, companies are not required to announce this because it is already public knowledge. An announcement might only be required if the change had an unusual or unexpected effect on the company.
When assessing whether a matter requires announcement or whether it has already been made, the simple fact that it is possible for the information to be obtained by the public is not necessarily enough. If the information is not readily available because a fee is required to obtain it or it is not a matter of general knowledge that it can be obtained, then an announcement will be required.

Showme "Remember why you invested in HUR. Dr T will deliver."

When he does he'll forever be known as The Midwife even though it's been a very messy birth!