Member Info for AquaeSulis01

"having" not haven't"

Must admit Dive I haven't de-risked haven't tried it before only to fall victim to muddy waters and then the travelex virus scandal; so clues on how you successfully de-risk grateful received. Bottom line is, I have taken the view with HUR that all worst case bad news is already in the share price and that I trust the expertise and integrity of Dr Trice. If this one goes pear shaped long term from here then so be it; there seems from my personal experience more risk in diversifying my biggest holding into the so say safer havens of the FTSE 100 or 250 than remaining where I am.

Yes good chance bottom reached especially as market "anticipated" the announcement and lowered the sp by a good 10% prior to the announcement. Also offer was oversubscribed so likely iis will buy as many as possible at the current sp. Add to that the shorters will now be seeking to close and there could be a nice spike over the coming days

On a lighter note this link was posted on the ADVFN BB

https://hydrocarbonscentral.finance.blog/2020/01/07/2020-picks-backing-british-rockrose-cluff-hurricane/

Nice summary for Hurricane

"My minimum price objective for the year is 45p. That’s not ambitious looking at the share price chart, but sentiment is weak and I want to see more data around the EPS before before scaling up my position. The good thing is that if they only deliver what they currently expect around EPS production, then water concerns will be dispelled and the current valuation appears far too low. That alone should be enough for the share price to recover next year and I think well above my minimum price objective. One thing I am sure of is 30p is not the right price for Hurricane. Either they have the geology wrong and the share price tumbles, or they have it right and it could trade multiples higher. Next year is the big one for understanding the true potential of Hurricane."

Divecentre I was calculating the bopd added since the 13th Dec not the cumulative total produced!

Iamluvingit, the 3.1M figure appeared in the 13th Dec 19 RNS at 7 am. So 24 days later * 14700 bopd = 352800

Courtesy of arregius on ADVFN @ 18.32 today

Response from HUR communications: "As stated in our most recent press release, Hurricane is confident that the water cut observed is related to perched/stranded water. This view is based on a number of technical observations including temperature data, lack of rate-dependency, and water production behaviour after shut-in periods. We've previously stated that it is not affecting oil production or costs and we therefore do not see it as a problem.Crude offtake tankers are used for oil offtake, not water. The fluids are separated on the FPSO vessel where the water can be cleaned up and overboarded. Our guidance is for total oil sales for 2019 of 2.8 million barrels.Kind regards,

And to be extra realistic do a once off top up of the breaker after a few cms have drained to represent perched water

You might want to run a second experiment with a plastic breaker three quarters full of olive oil one quarter vinegar with a hole drilled half way down the breaker as that way you will better simulate no ESP and hence a drawdown that is too low to lift aquifer vinegar whilst the ratio between the liquids will better represent the margin of safety down to the water level

Thanks Biffadog and others for helping me to interpret some of the information pushed out by HUR. Great reposte to dspp's negative views Biffadog, looking forward to the next RNS

Look I am just trying to understand the reason for the apparent break in the link between barrels sold and the related av bopd reported by the company, you obviously are unable to explain it, I was kinda hoping someone with more knowledge of the oil industry could (like ADUK) to satisfy my curiosity.

All the average figures reported came from the company and were actuals not forecasts apart from the June forecast for initial qtr of 9000 followed by the second qtr forecast of 13000 as opposed to the subsequently reported actual of 12500

Captain Swag "the reality is the only figure that matters is barrels sold and income from it." As a fellow shareholder agree, but that doesn't alter the fact that the reporting of the average bopd by the company appears to be a black art

Must admit, coming from a non-oily background, i struggle to make sense of some of the official HUR RNS and Presentation figures. On the oil sold and related average bopd figures.
05th Jun 19 RNS
"The Company anticipates a gradual ramp-up in facilities availability over the first six months of production towards long term operating efficiency of 85%. The Company restates existing guidance for facilities availability of three months at 45% and then a further three months at 65%, resulting in average production rates of 9,000 bopd and 13,000 bopd, respectively."
20th Sep 19 Half Year Results
"Since first oil, Hurricane has sold over 1.6 million barrels of oil across four cargoes and Lancaster has been producing at an average of 14,100 barrels of oil per day " (SO EACH LIFT = 0.4 MILLION of sold oil at an average 14,100 bopd)
02nd Dec RNS
"On 14 November the sixth cargo of crude oil from the Lancaster EPS was lifted, taking total oil sales to 2.5 million barrels since First Oil in June 2019. Average production for the remainder of the year is expected to continue to be in-line with guidance for Q4 2019 of approximately 11,000 bopd, constrained by system availability and data gathering requirements." (SO 2.5 MILLION - 1.6 MILLION for first 4 lifts = 0.9MILLION/2 lifts = 0.45 MILLION SOLD OIL PER LIFT so presume av bopd exceeded 14100).
13th Dec 19 RNS
"FY2019 guidance Total production of 3.1 million barrels of oil, representing an average rate of 13,300 barrels of oil per day  Oil sales: 2.8 million barrels across seven cargoes" (SO FINAL LIFT = 0.3 MILLION SOLD OIL making TOTAL AVERAGE ACROSS 7 LIFTS = 0.4 MILLION SO WHY IS THE bopd AVERAGE GIVEN AS 13,300 BARRELS AND NOT 14100?)
"The Lancaster EPS is benefiting from high vessel uptime and good well productivity, as it delivers its objectives of providing long-term data whilst generating cash flow. Production since 20 September has averaged approximately 12,500 barrels of oil per day, exceeding guidance for the quarter of 11,000 barrels of oil per day." (WHILST THE AVERAGE FOR ALL 6 MONTHS of 11000 bopd HAS BEEN EXCEEDED PRODUCTION FOR THE 2ND QUARTER WAS FORECAST AT 65% EFFICIENCY in Jun 19 = 13000 bopd)

Yes looks that way Blah

Yep not the CEO , the link is the Finabir founder and Co-Chairman Dr B Shetty who is also the Non-Executive Chairman of NMC, but is the reason for the share price fall

https://www.finablr.com/newsroom/press-release/finablr-announces-its-board-of-directors/
https://www.nmchealthgroupuae.com/ae/nmc-healthcare-directors/index.html

When you finish pushing this one Bob, you might want to turn your attention to Finabir who have fallen 17% by being found guilty by association by the market as they are run by the same CEO. Finabir are a totally different business and with recent partnerships announced including Samsung, should be heading North of where they originally started prior to Muddy Waters (sp 210) rather than residing South at 173 sp.

True, but you could also add the word naive to each of Boris's opponents

No probs Count, and no more typing from me on my Kindle with its damn interpretive text

I don't know what the s p will do short term. Once the independent audit is confirmed both the margins and screenshot off balance sheet debt, which I believe it will, then this will reach 3000. I suggest any one considering whether to invest off not listens to the C MD podcast and reviews the accompanying presentation to understand why the high margins are justified.