Member Info for AquaeSulis01

Yuri, now that it has appeared in the National press as "factual" I am sure that the principals involved will be keen to distance themselves if the rumours are untrue; let's just wait and see what drops Monday. For LTH's and investors, it makes a change to have a positive sentiment rather than negative reported and they will at least look forward to tomorrow more than any open shorts. For me, I have researched and followed this company for a fair time, appreciate some of the undisclosed value not priced in to the share price before the fall; i.e. the value of the patient data when developing new medicines for cancer treatment etc. To give you some idea of the future value to NMC (or any acquirer) which has over 5 million patients on its database, have a look at the info below (per patient value based on EY study for the NHS). That is one reason why I am quite relaxed about the short term noise, and no doubt why Dr Shetty is trying to retain control of this company rather than running for the hills.

Source CMD CEO Presentation Pack
AI can detect cancers much earlier than human eye can
Genomics will drive personalised and precise care

TYPICAL ESTIMATED
VALUES (IN £)
For per patient record
based on recent data
transactions
Market Capitalisation of selected publicly traded
companies
Post money valuations of private companies
and pharma collaborations
EHR £21 - £192
Episodic Records £30 - £619
Genomics £2543 - £4773
Genomics £208 - £2024
Oncology £40 - £5549
General £8 - £486
Drug Development £0.20 - £35
Population Data £3 - £21

Now that the takeover talks hav e moved from uncooked rumour to fact I would expect NMC to push out an RNS to confirm or deny it. After all they were quick to put out a statement before about Fosun w hen no rumours were circulating. If confirmed sp will move considerably north.

I guess you need to the type of licence applied for and the date. From the O&GA website

https://iclg.com/practice-areas/oil-and-gas-laws-and-regulations/united-kingdom

Agree Franalex which is why I am neither ramping or de-ramping the share. I would not encourage new investors to step in until news is released, equally shorting is probably more dangerous at this stage. I personally have a long position, admit the short term drops are unpleasant to experience and hence try to remind myself why I have confidence that the financials will prove accurate. I remember watching and listening to the CMD presentation and gaining an understanding why NMC margins are so good and they experience low rejection rates from the Insurance companies for their invoices. Their market advantage lies in the different, but complementary verticals. For instance, they not only run hospital care but also the profitable aftercare post discharge. This means they do not keep patients in hospital beds longer than necessary because they can also profit through their secondary care arm following discharge. Also their proactive work with genomics and engagement with a number of companies leading the way in terms of exploiting this data means that they are positioning themselves to take advantage of the 5 million patient database which will be worth billions in the future.

Deb enhams and Thomas cook were both loss making companies with increasing heavy debt. NMC is a profitable company with falling debt unless the accounts prove false from a financial aspect. Now lths believe the company when it states that their accounts are accurate whilst bears do not hence why the Freer report will be a pivotal moment.

On the subject of EV it is worth pointing out that the current hydrogen fuel cell v lithium battery technology race, which is reminiscent of the B etamax v vhs war in the 70s, has yet to be resolved. Until there is a clear winner, surely it would be folly to plough money into a recharging infrastructure that may very quickly become obsolete?

or shorts buying back in before selling again on no news rinse repeat, lack of a holdings RNS would support this theory

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/nmc-health-should-you-consider-catching-falling-knife-ii510472

esk, as a LTH I am hurting, if not as much but more than other LTH's as my second biggest Investment after HUR is NMC Health so I hate the word water with a passion. However, when I read the 13th Dec RNS I always believed that the most likely outcome was that Lincoln tieback would be deferred in favour of further Lancaster drilling, so have no complaints and believe like some others , that it will prove beneficial in the long run. This Risk has been mitigated and turned into an opportunity by our BoD so try to ignore the short term pain, look at it as a long term investment, and wait for end of Mar news.

We start regaining value when the EOY results are published followed by a positive CMD that outlines the plans for the future.

PRESS RELEASE



United Kingdom, 6 February 2020



Accelerated bookbuild offering of approximately £500 million of existing ordinary shares in Hargreaves Lansdown plc

Peter Hargreaves (the "Vendor") is selling approximately £500 million of existing ordinary shares in Hargreaves Lansdown plc ("Hargreaves Lansdown" or the "Company"). The sale will be undertaken via an accelerated bookbuild offering to institutional investors (the "Offering").

The Offering is being undertaken to enable Peter Hargreaves to diversify his assets. Peter Hargreaves intends to remain a significant shareholder for the longer term following the completion of the Offering.



Peter Hargreaves said, "I have decided to sell some of my shares in Hargreaves Lansdown. This is part of a process of long-term financial planning to diversify my assets. I remain, and will continue to be, a substantial shareholder in Hargreaves Lansdown. I am very proud of the business that I co-founded and helped build."



Barclays Bank PLC, acting through its investment bank ("Barclays") is acting as Sole Global Coordinator and Bookrunner and Numis Securities Limited ("Numis") is acting as Co-Bookrunner for the Offering and Evercore Partners International LLP ("Evercore") is acting as Financial Adviser to the Vendor. Bookbuilding will commence immediately. The right is reserved to close the books at any time. The sale price of the shares and the final size of the Offering will be determined after the books have closed. The Company will not receive any proceeds from the Offering.

22M and 11m late buys now showing

The BOD did not raise expectations of a tie-back; they have been brutally honest throughout , the exact wording from the Dec 13th RNS "The tie-back of a Lincoln well to the Aoka Mizu FPSO, tie-in to WOSPS, and associated modifications to the FPSO are still planned for 2020. Obtaining regulatory approval for this plan may, however, delay activity until 2021. Confirmation of the tie-in programme is expected during Q1 2020. In the absence of OGA approval for the tie-in of the Lincoln Crestal well (205/26b-14), the licence partners will be required to plug and abandon the well before 22 June 2020 in line with current regulatory approvals." This led to a sp drop to 27.34 from 29.06 i.e. was priced in then! This further drop from already ridiculous lows is quite frankly astonishing and will not remain at these levels for too long.

Depends on your definition of soon. The Results are out Mar 05th and the Freer report before that, plus possibility of a bid prior to anticipated rise in sp could well drop anytime and be announced even if rejected by the BoD all of which sounds soon to me when we are nearly 1 trading week in to the shortest month of the year

Don't forget we had an update on what to expect results wise on the CMD RNS

Reiterate 2019 guidance; expect double-digit organic growth to continue in 2020; announce further commitments to enhance governance



In advance of its Capital Markets Day this morning, NMC Health plc ("NMC" or the "Company"), the leading private healthcare operator in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) with international services across 19 countries, is pleased to confirm that business performance in the second half of 2019 is building on the strong trends seen in H1 2019. As a result, management expects the second half of the year to be stronger than the first and reiterates full year guidance across revenues, EBITDA, net income, leverage and cash flow conversion. Furthermore, NMC's strategy continues to offer substantial advantage over competitors in all key markets the Company operates in. Consequently, FY 2020 is anticipated to deliver double digit top and bottom line growth.

Continued strong operational performance in H2 2019 provides NMC's management confidence in the full year guidance, which is provided in the table below



(US$m)

Post-IFRS 16

Pre-IFRS 16

Revenues

2,500 - 2,540

2,500 - 2,540

EBITDA

665 - 675

575 - 585

Net income to equity holders

297 - 305

320 - 330

IFRS 16 lease liabilities

690 - 695

-

Net debt - to - EBITDA

Below 3.4

5th march

...and it's a leap year so I extra day of revenue :)

Certainly seems some truth in the purchase of the IVF Hospital

https://www.expansion.com/empresas/2020/01/25/5e2c8a64e5fdea3d2b8b4642.html
KKR, Cinven and EQT are launched by Eugin clinics
MAMEN PONCE DE LEÓN
Madrid
Jan 25 2020 - 20:17
NMC Health, receptive to listen to offers through the network of assisted reproduction clinics. JPMorgan intermediate contacts.
A new operation begins to take shape in the assisted reproduction sector. Large international private equity funds, among which KKR, Cinven and EQT stand out, are interested in the Spanish clinics Eugin, which today belong to the hospital group listed on the London Stock Exchange NMC Health and that until 2015 had as main shareholder the Proa venture capital manager, market sources assure.

Given the strong appetite that these investment giants have moved to gain from the expert in vitro fertilization treatment company, NMC Health has opened up to the possibility of hearing offers, although there is still no talk about the existence of an official process of sale, indicate financial sources. In this incipient stage, the JPMorgan investment bank is in charge of ordering the acquisition proposals and the conversations between parties, they add.
If it continues, the transfer of Eugin could become one of the largest private equity transactions in 2020 in Spain, as the company has grown a lot in recent years and, at present, its ebitda (gross operating profit) round 35 million euros. Considering the valuation multiples that are being applied in the sector, the valuation of 100% of the group (including capital and debt) is between 400 and 500 million euros, sources calculate.
When Proa entered Eugin in 2010, these clinics established in 1999 had an EBITDA of around seven million and when it ceded control to NMC Health (to which it sold 86.4% of the shareholder for an amount of 143 million), this It was already double. In the years that have passed since then, the new owner has further accelerated the company's growth. Much of this jump is due to the entry into markets in Europe and Latin America. Today, Eugin has a presence in the United States, Brazil, Colombia, Italy, Denmark and Sweden, as well as Spain and Portugal.
Middle East
It is still to be specified if the network of assisted reproduction centers deployed by NMC Health in the United Arab Emirates will also be included in the operation being prepared (through the Fakih teaching it has activity in Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Al Ain), at that financial sources attribute an ebitda of around 40 million euros. From the venture capital industry, they point out that the transaction could affect the entire fertility division of the hospital group and, therefore, would extend to both legs, which represents Eugin and this one in the Middle East.
The interest of the heavyweights of venture capital by this company is part of a generalized context of strong appetite of funds for this industry, which is also proof of the process of finding s

I suspect there are no holes in the accounts but the shorters are focused on exploiting further margin calls on the loans making this a very attractive takeover offer; interesting if we see an after hours RNS confirming the approach

Yes it does look with the benefit of hindsight , that shorters borrowed more stock and sold down before buying back in