RE: Mcap1 Feb 2020 08:32
30% was the forecast profit given at the AGM. To reach 1GW capacity they will be using 5MW stacks as soon as they can; they’re in development at the moment but not sure they can even test them at the existing site. £0.5M/MW is forecast cost for 5MW stacks assembled into a much larger unit. So £0.15M profit equates to £300M annually in 4 years time. At a conservative P.E ratio of 20 at that point, as it is a tech stock and still be a growing company, that equates to a £6B market cap. However, how many of the sales would be part of the JV with Linde? Most I would think so conservatively divide that figure in half and you get a £3B market cap. Those figures are contingent on max capacity in the aforementioned timescale and assume no further dilution. Once the new factory is online and operating well and demand continues to increase they will then consider building other factories which may require fundraising and dilution. I have excluded support and service contracts as they are unknowns and delayed revenue. If one added 5% to the sale cost then that would be £3.15B market cap. I prefer to be conservative when assessing future prospects.