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There’s no sign of a placing or any forward selling here – the trading pattern doesn’t match that. The volume over the past few sessions looks to be genuine demand coming into the market.

The sudden appearance of “stooge” sellers is telling. It usually indicates the market makers are running light on stock. With the share price having already doubled in a steady, orderly rise, it’s typical for MMs to try and shake a few shares loose at lower levels so they can balance their books.

Rather than being a negative, this behaviour often confirms strong underlying demand. If there was genuine selling pressure, you wouldn’t see multiple 5m+ blocks getting absorbed above bid without the book going NT. The fact the rise has been sustained on consistently high volume suggests this is not manufactured, but organic buying interest ahead of potential catalysts.

We’ve seen this exact setup before – HEMO’s meteoric rise started in the same way: consistently elevated daily volumes, stooges appearing as MMs scrambled for supply, and then a sharp break higher once retail holders refused to be shaken out. The parallels are hard to ignore here.

Nuformix’s NXP001 programme has already delivered a string of milestone payments over the years:

• Under the original Newsummit Biopharma (China) licence, the first two pre-clinical milestones were achieved and £1m cash received (£500k + £500k).

• A further £2m milestone was triggered in 2019 on positive human bioavailability results – the company said at the time the payment was expected that June.

• More recently, under the Oxilio licence, Nuformix confirmed it has achieved and received two additional milestone payments (amounts undisclosed) during late 2023.

So in total we’re looking at at least four milestone receipts confirmed in RNS and accounts, plus that larger £2m milestone which was triggered and expected to be paid.

👉 The key takeaway: NXP001 is not just theoretical IP — it has already generated multiple milestone payments from partners, proving real commercial traction.

And NXP002 is much more valuable prospect

So no naked forward selling of a significant quantity of shares.

It requires a shareholder vote to create the next tranche of non-pre-emptive stock.

I suspect if a licensing deal isn’t announced with the FDA ODD decision, NFX will need to raise and a GM will be called.

Looking. At the positive tone of previous announcements, theres a good chance, a deal is done subject to FDA ODD approval, and if similar to NXP001, cash will flow.

✅ Bottom line:

• They’ve got only ~34m shares left they can place for cash on a non-pre-emptive basis before needing another shareholder vote.

• They still have ~529m shares they could issue in a rights issue (or other pre-emptive offer) without a vote.

What the AGM (20 Mar 2025) gave them

• Authority to allot (s551 CA 2006): up to £414,769.79 nominal.

• Pre-emption disapplication (s561 CA 2006): up to £166,930.93 nominal (≈ 20% of ISC as of Feb 2025).

• Nominal value per share: 0.05p = £0.0005.

So in share numbers:

• General allotment: £414,769.79 ÷ £0.0005 ≈ 829,539,580 shares.

• Disapplication (non-pre-emptive cash): £166,930.93 ÷ £0.0005 ≈ 333,861,860 shares.

⸻

2. What they issued in May 2025

• They raised £210,000 gross through a placing at 0.07p/share.

• That was 300,000,000 new shares admitted end of May.

• Nominal value used: 300,000,000 × £0.0005 = £150,000.

⸻

3. What’s left under AGM authority

• Disapplication headroom used: £150,000 of £166,930.93 ≈ 90% used.

• Leaves ~£16,931 nominal = ~33.9 million shares before they must seek a new vote to issue for cash without pre-emption.

• General allotment headroom used: £150,000 of £414,769.79.

• Leaves ~£264,770 nominal = ~529 million shares — but these would normally have to be issued with pre-emptive rights unless shareholders approve a further disapplication.

Still no delayed prints to explain the massive take down between 10:00-11:00 today.

Maybe they’ll print them tomorrow 🤷🏻‍♂️

So many bag holders here and others holding massive quantities from way past.

The last 6 sessions does stink of placing but it was possible to sell in massive quantities which normally requires NT when the price is up 20-30% in the session.

I’ve put ChatGPT onto looking at how much headroom there is for left for a placing. And it looks like there’s no room without another GM and shareholder vote. See below.

So maybe the last 6 days of interest in NFX is genuine 🤷🏻‍♂️

It would take more than a few posts on here and telegram for the volume to jump from usual 10-30m per day to nearly 300m per day for the last 6 sessions. The number of people in the group and on here is pitiful.

I searched and found the telgram group today. It was pretty uninspiring. Just posters backing each other up, nothing which would have someone buying blocks of 5m shares.

If I were the market-maker I’d post a wide 2.6/0.29 spread to quietly discourage fresh buys and make retail think the tape is full of sells. Red trades that look like selling pressure but are actually buys.

The effect? Nervous traders step aside or sell into it — liquidity stays with the desk, not the crowd. Do your own checks — it’s a trick of the trade, not investment advice

Thanks re: T

Market seems very liquid and spread tighter than listed.

They will take 8m at .2611 and buy at .2777

Not as many available on Ask before going NT

Trombone - Which Telegram group? Do you have a link?

I'd like to see what's being posted in there

One hell of a shake earlier, looks like we won't see the trade (if there is one) until after hours but the buys which bought the dip are now coming through.

Huge buys during the dip, like it was orchestrated to allow an exchange of stock at a lower price.

7,073,330 buy, £20k during the drop isn't a casual trade. Someone was confident the dip was temporary.

While retail was dumping xxx,xxx into the tick down between 10:00 and 10:45, someone was hoovering up x,xxx,xxx tranches.

Peel are keen, already pushed yesterdays closing bid up to .3

When your BoD are aligned with investors, you know you’re on to a winner. With Brian Stockbridge’s Sentry One vehicle holding warrants over 153m shares, Andrew McCartney with 58m, and James Norwood with 19m, the leadership team clearly has real skin in the game. That alignment is what gives confidence that management will be driving hard to deliver value for all shareholders.

BoD holding over 230m shares/warrants between them — real skin in the game. When management are this aligned with investors, you know value will be driven hard.

People worrying about whether the first order is £2m or £10m are missing the point. ALRT is valued at just £60m in a market where AI and defence stocks with less substance trade at £200m+. Even a modest first order proves concept and opens the door to scale.

In that context, today’s price is still cheap and very much entry level.

Right now, ALRT sits at a valuation that is tiny compared to what’s being thrown at speculative AI and defence plays across LSE and NASDAQ. We’ve all seen companies with no revenues or just a concept being valued at hundreds of millions. ALRT mcap is typically LSE conservative.

I suspect we will also see a similar print tomorrow after hours for today’s morning rise.

Someone is confident!!!

GG & AK

I notice you're both in other pharma stocks, this is my first one for a long time. Watched IMM and Hemo after the event. I we looking at a similar setup here? Bought a load yesterday at .255 with money made on ALRT, so no rush to sell. Happy to sit it out for updates.

100% a buy driven

sells over NMS are easily traded at full bid

The tick down found the buyer hovering

📊 Trading pattern

● Last 5 sessions: ~250m shares per day traded (1 day at 150m).

● Normal baseline: 10–30m/day.

● Huge spike in liquidity without NT (no-trade) status, and with 5m+ blocks going through above the bid.

🔎 What this suggests

1. Not simple forward-selling

● If brokers were unloading placing stock, you’d expect constant selling pressure, a weak bid, and difficulty shifting big blocks.

● Instead, you’re seeing blocks clearing easily above bid, which suggests genuine demand is mopping up supply.

2. Aggressive accumulation

● Someone (or multiple buyers) appear to be taking size quietly.

● The repeated large blocks clearing shows there’s a buyer of size sitting behind the book.

3. Price control by MMs

● The 250m turnover/day means MMs are recycling stock between traders and buyers.

● They let retail churn but ensure the bulk is absorbed without crashing price. This is typical of position-building by institutions or funds.

🔗 Comparison to HEMO’s meteoric rise

● Hemogenyx (HEMO) saw very similar tape action in its run-up:

● Sudden jump in daily volumes far above historic norms.

● Large blocks repeatedly absorbed with minimal impact.

● Retail forums doubting “who’s buying”, but in hindsight it was early institutional/speculative money loading up.

● The rise became self-fulfilling as FOMO kicked in: elevated volumes + steady absorption created belief that “smart money knows something.”

⚖️ Interpretation for NFX

● Volume is the tell: 250m/day vs a historic 10–30m/day isn’t retail churn alone.

● Ability to sell 5m+ blocks without NT = someone wants that stock badly enough to take it all.

● This points to accumulation rather than distribution.

● If FDA ODD lands, that accumulation makes sense — positioning ahead of a binary catalyst.

✅ Bottom line: The trading pattern looks less like forward-selling and more like smart money building a position ahead of news. The parallels with HEMO’s pre-rally volume profile are very close — the difference will be whether NFX gets the ODD catalyst to ignite it.

I like this last point

● £30m (£2p) is possible but would probably need ODD + a partnering/licensing deal rather than ODD in isolation.

NFX board have already proven with the deal done with Oxilio and NXP001 that they are in contact with the right people.

Checking out Waccamacca claim 1p-2p imminent off U.S. ODD approval,

📌 What US Orphan Drug Designation (ODD) really gives

● Regulatory perks: 7 years of US market exclusivity if approved, tax credits on clinical trial costs, reduced FDA fees, and potential grant eligibility.

● Validation: FDA acceptance of the rare disease rationale is a stamp of credibility, often used as leverage in partnering talks.

● No efficacy proof yet: ODD does not mean the drug works. It only means FDA agrees the condition qualifies, and the proposed therapy could address it.

📌 Typical market reaction to ODD

● On AIM/small-cap biotech, ODD news often triggers sharp spikes (sometimes 2–5× in a day), because retail equates it to “closer to approval.”

● In reality, ODD is a low bar compared to clinical milestones — it’s paperwork and justification, not clinical validation.

● However, it does strengthen partnering potential, because large pharma value the commercial incentives attached.

📌 Is £15–30m market cap justified?

● At £5m current mcap, NFX is priced like a struggling shell.

● Moving to £15–30m (i.e. 1–2p share price) would still be modest by sector standards — many preclinical AIM biotechs with ODD trade at £30–50m mcap without a single Phase 1 trial started.

For context:

● Hemogenyx (£50m cap at preclinical)

● Silence Therapeutics and others surged on designations years ago at much larger scales.

● If the FDA grants ODD, a re-rate to the £15–20m zone looks justifiable, especially if NFX use it to sign a licensing/option deal.

● £30m+ (£2p share price) would likely require additional catalysts — e.g. early clinical data, or a partnering announcement with upfront payments.

✅ Bottom line

● Yes, US ODD alone could justify an uplift to ~£15m mcap (£0.8–1.2p range).

● £30m (£2p) is possible but would probably need ODD + a partnering/licensing deal rather than ODD in isolation.

The sector precedent supports a sharp re-rate on ODD news, but sustainability depends on whether NFX can monetise the designation.