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Trading pattern repeating.

Chunky sells going through 4-5 x stock on the bid with no effect to order book.

Someone's taking them

The comparison with Palantir model continues

ALRT is becoming a Palantir-style sovereign software platform, but built in a more UK/European ecosystem way, with its own products plus selected partner technologies feeding into the platform.

Project STRONG looks like ALRT’s own product/capability. The MoD Transparency Notice relates to testing an integrated intelligence, decision-support and operational effects capability involving Defence Holdings. If the process completes, it would represent a contract award between the Ministry of Defence and Defence Holdings.

So on that side, ALRT appears to be supplying its own technology/service directly into the defence customer.

But the bigger model is broader than one product.

Defence Technologies appears to be the sovereign software delivery platform, progressing classified programmes, hyperscale integrations and its own product builds such as STRONG and Ixian-type capabilities.

Then Meridian, the accelerator programme, adds the platform/ecosystem side. This is where ALRT can identify emerging sovereign AI, software and defence-tech companies, help harden the technology, connect them to customer requirements, support procurement/integration and potentially take economics through revenue participation, equity positions, joint ventures or standalone deployments.

That means ALRT could make money from several routes:

Own products

Partner products

Revenue participation

Strategic equity positions

Joint ventures

Structured commercial partnerships

Long-term software contracts

That is the interesting part.

If ALRT was only introducing other companies to the MoD for a small fee, I would be far less excited. But that does not appear to be the model. The company seems to be trying to build a sovereign defence software platform with its own products at the centre, while also using Meridian to bring in other selected technologies that can feed the wider ecosystem.

ALRT is a product company, a delivery platform and a defence-tech ecosystem operator.

That is both the opportunity and the risk. If it works, they are not limited to one product or one contract. They can build value across multiple layers of the defence technology chain.

@Transshaven not when offer was at .21, keep up.

It has ticked up since and there are now 4m on offer.

Tried to top up. No joy without going NT, even when dropped the order down to 100,000 (£200 worth!)

MM's frightened to move the offer up in case it creates interest or they just don't have any stock to sell. If an RNS drops over next few days, MM's will have to massive gap up to find sellers.

NFX are closer to big pharma than we are being told.

During March fundraise, BoD specifically stated the funds were being used "for studies identified through ongoing out-licensing discussions and due diligence with large pharma and specialty pharma companies".

That's unusually specific wording and suggests third parties were already looking under the bonnet when the money was raised and the relationship was more than just a pitch being made to the potential partner.

We've no idea how long these pharma companies have been looking so closely but it can't be long before one of them tries to secure first refusal.

Some big trades today compared with last few weeks but not enough to suggest anyone is aware of imminent announcement. Those types of trades were more obvious in Feb & March.

Just had another little nibble ;-)

Unusually quiet in here. Even after £37k of buys over lunch.

Calm before the storm?

Update on "value-enhancing data", NXP002 progress and partner/licencing talks is long overdue.

Plenty of cash to see them through 12-15 months based on historical overheads, and current valuation (£4.9m) bargain if there is big pharma interested. Investor interest very low due to all the good news (EMA & FDA ODD ticked off) out in the open.

Shareprice hit 0.5 in Nov, even a fundraise at 0.2 didn't dampen interest as FDA ODD was keenly awaited but now it seems investor/speculator interest has waned due to lack of news on the horizon unless the BoD surprise us with update in talks with an interested party. That would put a rocket up it.

Up until now, FORG a small community.

This appears on the tops lists this morning and more investors/speculators will be directed to this mornings RNS.

It’s going to be a very blue week, ignore the dips.

😮Fresh assays up to 29.4% copper and 4.8g/t gold from the maiden Green Rocks programme.

This was not one lucky rock chip. Out of 110 samples, 22 came back above 5% copper and 25 above 0.3g/t gold. That is a very decent strike rate for an early stage surface programme.

Some of the copper numbers are exceptional:

29.4% Cu

27.2% Cu

26.8% Cu

23.8% Cu

20.8% Cu

16.2% Cu

15.2% Cu

14.8% Cu

13.1% Cu

11.9% Cu

10.7% Cu

10.5% Cu

These are high grade copper results by any measure.

The gold grades are huge when factored with the copper, with grades up to 4.8g/t and a number of other samples showing gold alongside the copper.

Today’s results validate the historic work. Historic data had already shown copper up to 46.7% and gold up to 5.31g/t at Green Rocks. The company has also previously highlighted Ming Bore North with historic rock chips up to 54.5% copper, and Glen Florrie with rock chips up to 22.1% copper and 2.2g/t gold.

So this is not just a random one day result. It backs up the old data and suggests the historic work was pointing at something real.

Another big plus is that this is not one isolated sample. The project has multiple named prospects across the licence area, including Green Rock, Ming Bore North, Green Hat and Glen Florrie. One good sample can be dismissed. Multiple high grade results across several prospects starts to look like a proper mineralised system.

The company has also said the mineralisation is associated with structures, dyke margins, malachite development and overlapping copper and gold anomalies.

Green Rocks is also in the Ashburton Mineral Field in Western Australia, close to known mineralised systems including Paulsens, which has produced serious amounts of gold historically. The wider Ashburton area has also hosted meaningful JORC resources, so this is a proven district.

Drilling still has to prove width, depth and continuity. But these are exactly the surface results geologists want before the drill bit turns. High grade copper and gold at surface, repeated across multiple prospects, associated with malachite, structures, dyke margins and overlapping copper and gold anomalism, can be a strong vector towards potential high grade shoots below surface.

😮

ALS report tomorrow

The pipeline also looks broader than many realise: STRONG, Ixion, edge-analysis capability, Gloucestershire Police AI work, plus a second customer opportunity linked to the same STRONG product.

Add Whitespace, IMSL, Oracle, NATO exposure and the accelerator model, and this starts to look like a proper sovereign AI defence platform being built in public markets.

This is getting very interesting.

For me, the Andrew Rohan interview was less about one contract and more about proof that Defence Holdings understands the defence procurement machine.

The key point: Project STRONG is now publicly moving through a Ministry of Defence direct-award procurement route. Rohan explained that the Transparency Notice declares the customer’s intent, with the standstill period before the contract can be offered. That is a serious step for a company at this stage.

What stood out most was his explanation of why ALRT got into this position: they had already built a prototype, put it in front of the customer, stimulated demand, and moved into what he described as a design partnership. That is exactly the model early-stage defence tech companies need, build, prove, iterate with the customer, then scale.

The interview also confirmed this is not a one-product story.

We have Project STRONG, Project Ixion, another classified edge-analysis product, the Gloucestershire Police AI work, plus a second customer opportunity linked to the same STRONG capability. Rohan even suggested he hopes greater than 50% of the current product hopper succeeds.

The Whitespace relationship also sounds strategically important. Products built natively on Collective OS could reduce future deployment time because they are already being developed in the kind of environment defence customers expect to use.

Then add IMSL as a procurement/accreditation delivery partner, Oracle as the first scalable global cloud partner for the accelerator, exposure to NATO / Five Eyes / AUKUS-type opportunities, and a first accelerator cohort opening shortly.

ALRT is starting to look less like a small speculative “AI defence” story and more like an early-stage sovereign AI defence platform with multiple routes to value:

Product revenue

Strategic equity positions

Accelerator exposure

Direct stakes

Potential recurring defence contracts

Still early, but the direction of travel looks much stronger than the current market sentiment suggests.

The market wanted validation. This interview, alongside the recent RNS trail, shows real progress.

DYOR.

AIM can value stories aggressively when the pieces line up.

JORC resource + copper price strength + PGE credits + Green Rock assays due + Peak Hills drill campaign + tiny market cap

then I could see a speculative market giving it £15m–£20m without needing a full economic study.

That would be roughly 0.06p–0.08p.

If Green Rock then delivers eye-catching copper/gold rock chips, the story could push beyond that.

Bottom line

My fair valuation ladder would be:

* Below £6m: too cheap, unless the market thinks the option will not be exercised.

* £12m–£15m: fair initial rerate zone.

* £20m–£25m: fair bullish AIM story valuation.

* £25m+ only justified if Green Rock assays are strong, Mount Sholl due diligence is clean, or they show a credible route to economics/funding.

The gross in-situ value is roughly:

US$3.14bn–US$3.26bn

But you never get that number. You need recoveries, payability, mining cost, processing cost, G&A, sustaining capex, smelter charges and so on.

After recoveries / payable metal

Raiden’s original recovery assumptions used formula-based recoveries for nickel and copper; at the headline grades, that roughly implies about 61% nickel recovery and 75% copper recovery.

Using those, plus a rough 60% payable/recovery assumption for PGEs, I get an approximate recovered/payable metal value of:

US$2.1bn–US$2.2bn

That is the more useful number.

On a “metal value less rough AISC” basis, Mount Sholl is not trivial at all. The current resource could theoretically carry hundreds of millions of dollars of operating margin, with a mid-case around US$700m–US$800m for 100%.

Gross metal: about US$3.2bn.

Recovered/payable metal: about US$2.1bn.

Less rough AISC: probably US$350m–US$1.1bn theoretical surplus.

Risked project value today: far, far lower — likely still in the tens of millions, maybe hundreds, until economics are proven.

Defence Holdings is now publicly confirmed as part of a UK Ministry of Defence procurement process.

That is a very different position from where the company was a few months ago, when the bear case was that ALRT was just another defence/AI story with good wording, impressive appointments and no visible proof.

We now have visible proof.

The recent RNS trail shows clear progression:

First, ALRT set out the sovereign software / defence AI strategy.

Then Project Ixian was positioned around UK Defence technical, security and commercial protocols.

Then the company announced its operating model and strategic ecosystem approach.

Then IMSL was added as a delivery partner to help companies move through defence procurement, accreditation and deployment barriers.

Now we have a UK Government Transparency Notice relating to a proposed MOD contract involving Defence Holdings.

That is a serious sequence.

This is no longer just talk about future defence opportunities. ALRT is now visibly moving through the process with the MOD.

The wording around the capability is also important: integrated intelligence, decision support, open-source and classified intelligence, Courses of Action, and human-controlled authorised effects across cyber, information and supply-chain domains.

That is not generic AI fluff. That sounds like a real operational defence capability being assessed through the proper channels.

For me, the investment case has shifted. The company still has to deliver, of course, but the argument that ALRT is “all hot air” is now much harder to make.

The next RNS's could be very important. Confirmation of formal award, successful testing, an extension, follow-on scope, or further defence/government engagement could change sentiment very quickly.

Despite todays volume and modest price rise, I think the market may be underestimating what has just happened.

ALRT now appears to be moving from story stock into genuine MOD procurement territory.

Last years highs of 4-5p will be breached very quickly if the announcements keep coming. I suspect this transparency notice will be the first of many.

Bump

For months, people have questioned whether ALRT was just another defence/AI story with plenty of impressive language but no proof. This announcement changes that. Defence Holdings is now publicly linked to a UK Government / Ministry of Defence procurement process through an official Transparency Notice. That is not hot air. That is not a vague “strategic discussion”. That is a real procurement pathway.

Yes, the initial value is small. But this appears to be a testing/evaluation phase, not the end destination. You don’t usually get handed a huge MOD rollout on day one. You prove the technology, pass the checks, demonstrate operational value, and then the bigger opportunity potentially follows.

The wording is also significant: integrated intelligence, decision support, open-source and classified intelligence, courses of action, and operational effects. That suggests ALRT is not pitching some lightweight AI dashboard — they are being assessed for a serious defence capability.

So for me, the £226k is not the key number. The key point is that ALRT has now been publicly validated as being inside the MOD process. That should answer the “all hot air” argument.

The next stage is what matters: formal award, successful testing, and hopefully a larger follow-on phase. But today’s news is a material step forward in credibility. Small contract value, yes. Small validation? Absolutely not.

A lot of people will focus on the headline value of the proposed MOD contract and say “only £226k”, but I think that completely misses the point.

The important part is validation.

For months, people have questioned whether ALRT was just another defence/AI story with plenty of impressive language but no proof. This announcement changes that. Defence Holdings is now publicly linked to a UK Government / Ministry of Defence procurement process through an official Transparency Notice. That is not hot air. That is not a vague “strategic discussion”. That is a real procurement pathway.

Yes, the initial value is small. But this appears to be a testing/evaluation phase, not the end destination. You don’t usually get handed a huge MOD rollout on day one. You prove the technology, pass the checks, demonstrate operational value, and then the bigger opportunity potentially follows.

The wording is also significant: integrated intelligence, decision support, open-source and classified intelligence, courses of action, and operational effects. That suggests ALRT is not pitching some lightweight AI dashboard — they are being assessed for a serious defence capability.

So for me, the £226k is not the key number. The key point is that ALRT has now been publicly validated as being inside the MOD process. That should answer the “all hot air” argument.

The next stage is what matters: formal award, successful testing, and hopefully a larger follow-on phase. But today’s news is a material step forward in credibility. Small contract value, yes. Small validation? Absolutely not.

Excellent news,

The TR-1 confirms YA II PN / Yorkville Advisors Global has gone from a previous 15.09% holding to 0%.

Overhang removed.

Yorkville were not a sticky long-term strategic holder — they were part of the historic financing structure. When that type of holder is sitting on a large position, every bit of buying pressure can be met with background selling. It can keep a share pinned even when the story starts improving.

Now that block appears to be cleared.

That changes the dynamic.

We now have:

✅ Yorkville overhang gone

✅ Cash in the bank

✅ Peak Hills drilling approval received

✅ Green Rock assay results expected around now

✅ Heavy volume showing the market is waking up

Nothing is guaranteed and the next RNS still needs to deliver. But if the seller is out and buyers are now positioning ahead of assay news.

Tiny market cap, huge volume, finance seller cleared, catalysts pending.

Well that's quite a transfer of stock.

Can't tell for definite whether someone accumulating or offloading but given there hasn't been a sell even on a small scale all day above .0136, this trade if sell driven wouldn't have been offered .01385