Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I don't often agree with Brad's posts, nor do I think his constant off topic rambles are appropriate. However, as a human being, I do understand and empathise with his situation and as a consequence am willing to give him some latitude. I've been happily married for 35 years - the thought of being in Brad's position allows me to do this. I am in no doubt that you Moagi have no mitigating circumstances for your unrelenting negative behaviour and constant stalking of Brad (and others) on here. Therefore your comment of 'get a life' really got up my nose. If there is anybody on here that needs to get a life it is you - Brad is just trying to bring something tangible into his, whereas you seem to be on a mission to urinate on everybody else's
Now you know the reason for the SP slide - the market insiders knew what was coming. That said I think it's the right strategy to take advantage and expand now, particularly in the States. A little bit of short term pain for long term gain. GLA
I think that's the general idea sfbp - make it so unpleasant nobody bothers - I for one look in less and less frequently and judging by recent interactions that appears to be a good call. Moagi is a classic obnoxious troll, but I don't always disagree with what he posts; I just despise why he posts. And furthermore - anybody - positive or negative - who posts on these forums in an attempt to influence investors for their own gain, is in my eyes despicable. GLA
'@Tlouenergy have accelerated sharply in 2H21' Let's hope the roads clear and no flat tyres.
Emoji overload maybe - but things do appear to be eventually happening
https://twitter.com/TlouEnergy/status/1459145060101013506?s=20
I think we'll probably get a less excitable reaction to the RNS here. Minimum a year before powerline construction completion. Only 2023 mentioned, pretty vague, but maybe they are learning lessons on giving more specific deadlines. Possible US $3m investment in SM's IPO; alongside our shared cost in the actual project, that's a decent portion of our funding previously earmarked for the GtoP project and more drilling - extra funding possibly needed sooner? Likely I guess . Nevertheless if this aspect of our strategy can utilise our gas currently being wasted and bring in revenue sooner, then that's good news. Although, the initial uses seem to be mainly limited to generating electricity, for our own use I presume, and fuel for our vehicles. At least it keeps up the interest and solidifies the 'green' profile we appear to be working so hard on.
Generally upbeat RNS and I found one of TG's comments particularly positive and noteworthy:
'With continued encouraging gas flows from Lesedi and the development of additional ways to monetise our gas, we are about to enter a very exciting time for our company.'
As GG stated at the signing - and I'm paraphrasing here: our eagerness to get the project moving hasn't always been met with the same enthusiasm from some in Botwana, who slowed the process down and brought the project to near collapse. Well they can't blame the authorities for what happens next. Technical plan of works complete - contractor tenders accepted - funding a formality it seems - let's get this show on the road.
Referenced in that article is the Botwanan National Energy Policy which was finalised last month. Not a read for everyone but some interesting things in it. How much will eventually be achieved is another matter, but it's a start I guess.
http://www.bera.co.bw/downloads/National%20Energy%20Policy%20Final%20April%202021.pdf
A few relevant extracts:
... The gas industry is still at early development stages in Botswana, but the industry presents an opportunity for supply of clean thermal energy solutions. Estimates of 196 trillion cubic feet of coal bed methane (CBM) have been recorded and exploration is ongoing. Commercially viable gas exploration is required to firm up resource quantification and associated development programs which can transform Botswana’s social and economic landscape.
Development of the gas industry, specifically CBM, in Botswana presents an opportunity for the supply of clean thermal energy solutions. The current exploration efforts for CBM are beginning to bear fruits with some CBM exploration companies having been issued with Mining Licenses. However, the industry faces a challenge of lack of a legal and regulatory framework. This policy lays a foundation for a robust legal and regulatory framework to facilitate development of a lucrative local gas sector. The Orapa 2 X 45 MW Dual Fuel General Electric Lm 6000 Open Cycle Gas Turbines Power Plant is designed to operate on both gas and diesel and once the gas is commercially available, this plant will be fully operated on gas. The operation of the plant using gas will reduce the country’s emissions from power generation as the gas is cleaner compared to diesel.
Policy Statements:
P9 An enabling environment will be created in order to facilitate investments and to fast-track developments in the
P9.1 To facilitate private sector participation and development of the downstream gas industry.
P9.1.1 Collaborate with key stakeholders to exploit available gas resources.
P9.1.2 Ensure effective economic regulation of the gas industry.
P9.2 To have a national gas infrastructure accessible to all suppliers and distributors.
P9.2.1 Develop gas storage and transport infrastructure including collaboration with neighbouring countries.
Pretty sure this has been posted before but it appears to have been updated recently and gives a decent insight into the energy situation in Botswana.
https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/botswana-energy
TB - This was one of the assumptions made by the analyst for the base case evaluation:
'Includes $7m of additional equity in H1 2022 and $10m in 2023 to progress exploration, appraisal and staged development before operations can be internally funded. Assumes existing 57.5m options exercised H2 2022.'
These options from the open offer expire 20th July next year @ Aus 8c - so I guess they are factoring these in. As you say the likelihood of these being taken up is wholely dependent on SP performance in the intervening period. I'm guessing one of the purposes of this report is to encourage that process - time will tell.
On the note of these options - a friend contacted me stating they had been asked to make a decision on these by next month - anybody else had a similar instruction?
The quarterly report out today is now showing all Mamba licences as current until 2023 - also the Lesedi ones they were waiting on.
Also the comment about funding would suggest the first part of the funding will probably be debt.
'
I think you are in a minority of one with that sentiment Brad. It made perfect sense to me to have the ability to generate revenue through the grid connection before expanding the field purely on raised funds - both economically and enviromentally. Covid - or rather our over reaction to Covid - is neither here nor there; the decision to connect before achieving commercial flow rate data was made prior to all this drama. It also enables us to proceed with a scaled solar option too. Therefore if we assume funding for the powerline link-up was reliant on the PPA - its primary level of importance up until the signing this week can not be doubted imo.
The muted market reaction is in my opinion mostly because of the expectation of an incoming placing. TG has stated on more than one occasion the finance will most likely be in the form equity and debt and we are trying raise about half our MCap. I think most folk will hold off until the details are announced and then see where the SP heads - AIM generally reacts badly to placings - no matter how good the cause. Then again, you never know they may raise at a premium - they have before if I remember corretly - but they have also given substantial discounts in the past too - that near 30% in a few years back still smarts.
https://tlouenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2110-Cleaner-Energy-Presentation-Final.pdf
From the July quarterlies we were waiting on 2 Lesedi PLs up for renewal, and the 5 Mamba PLs expired last month. I guessing these are held up like everything else, but wondered if any of the regular correspondents with the company had any news on these before I inquire myself. I know we are not likely to do anything particularly with in the near future - but nevertheless it's important information and it would be good to know the situation. Hopefully they'll udate us in the next quarterly report