Member Info for Apeirogon

Siemens Energy ENR.DE, Vestas Wind Systems VWS.CO and Enphase ENPH have all been trounced this year. JMAT at least still has earnings from diesel catalytic converters.

Don’t forget the 780m in debt when looking at a complete takeover. It’s not just about market cap.

Aside from that … TopShop sells size 28 clothing in the US ?!?! Might have to get long some Eli Lilly.

I think we can say that the company is clearly “in play” now if a prime asset is on the table.

Hydrogen and Catalysts are going to be the growth drivers of the company but are currently small.

I still think that Standard Industries will make an offer for the whole group but can clearly take their time with the share price languishing.

Can anybody tell me anything about Progressive Research. They write about AIM stocks and also WJG. Are they paid by the company?

What you do is: sit down with a pencil, paper and calculator. Work out a sum of parts model for each part of the business. If you think it is realistically worth more then you buy. If you can’t figure out the business plan or the numbers don’t work then don’t.

When I do this I make money. When I act hastily I lose.

Recommendation to BUY in 13th Oct. Thank goodness I sold on the 12th.

KX was not enough to save them. Bodes well for the future though.

Can you post the source please.

Please explain how you get to 4p valuation.

If they get to £10 net profit and are still growing in 2025 then on 15x multiple the share price could be 59p. Although with continual share awards it might be more like 50p.

Slightly annoyed they’ve had to stump up so much extra but at least it’s in the past now. INDV can focus on the real business of making money and growing the pipeline.

Two Seas Capital specialise in legal situations. I have no doubt that they can see the clear excessive negativity applied to INDV currently.

Cannabis Use Disorder treatment will be massive. Aelis Farma claim that 30% of 15-24yr olds are users and 11-16% of that develop severe problems. So in the US that’s about 1.6m potential patients in that cohort alone. Worldwide Cannabis is being decriminalised and it is getting stronger. Users are not just 15-24 either.

I am bullish but acknowledge that they were valued on Tech multiples in the past when they should be valued as a clothing retailer at 9x earnings if run well.

I note you have been a member for 4 months and posted 60 times about ASC in that time.

Do you have some sums to back up a more than 1.5bn valuation ?

What would Asos be worth if it were run as well as Frasers ?

3.6bn sales. 7% Net Profit margin (OK, that's a stretch year) = 252 NP at 9x = 2.3bn EV - 0.8b Net Debt = 1.5bn Mkt Cap

Current MktCap is 470mio. I'd love to hear thoughts. Clearly 3x from here is the bull case.

Once the litigation is out of the way - I don't see why this wouldn't rerate to a more sensible 15x for a company with a decent growth rate and - importantly - Nasdaq listing.

Annual operation profits of $240 x 15 = $3.6bn / £2.98bn

Factor in growth of 25% per year for 3yrs gets Operating Profit to $468m x 15 = $7bn. PV at 10% is $5.2bn/£4.3bn

Current Mkt Cap £2.1bn / EV £1.8bn

Thoughts most welcome

The final leg of the Multi District Litigation (MDL) claims is set for trial on 30th October. They set aside a total provision of $187m for this and have settled with 41 states already for $102m.

Other news will be the roll-out of Opvee for emergency opiod overdose treatment. Targeting peak net revenue of $150-250m.

I suspect that these ladies know a lot more about women’s fashion than the posters on this board. They seem to have their heads screwed on. Time will tell.

The drop in total orders is quite a concern. Hopefully the new initiatives bear fruit.