Member Info for APD708

@antharry, I agree with you time is running out for AP, he needs to deliver now or Vast faces real risk of bankruptcy without generating substantial revenue from operations from any of its assets. Hope the estimates done by Craig Harvey COO for Baita are fairly accurate and they are producing as per that plan.

I can see why "the bank" might have a condition to have enough capital which this placing have generated to run for another 6 to 12 months just in case Vast don't produce as per the estimates by Craig and gets paid.

I can also see "the bank" if it saw that Baita for a great producing asset and other non-producing assets on Vast's books then I would have thought they would want Vast to draw down from them so they can make a return on interests payments from Vast. Why would they have a condition to have enough capital? I am unable to make sense of this.

Your thoughts?

Mark that link is from November 2019 and not November 2020.

Mark I admire and share your optimism. The shares have been diluted immensely. Do you see the real risk of bankruptcy? What if BP doesn't produce quality copper concentrate? What if the BP revenue forecasts done internally by Craig Harvey are wrong?

I agree with gbk47 in that the share price can't rise without reverse stock split. The shares have been diluted immensely. Does anyone see the real risk of bankruptcy? What if BP doesn't produce quality copper concentrate? What is the BP revenue forecasts done internally by Craig Harvey are wrong?

Sorry, we owe debt to Atlas Capital Markets and this placing was with Vast's Joint Broker, Axis Capital Markets Ltd

The "real problem" with Vast presently no revenue from operations. Only companies looking for growth but don't have cash from operations seek to raise cash through placings and/or debt.

As I have said in my other post in the last few days, Vast needs to generate cash from operations @ Baita mine. I am still long on Vast despite news of placing today.

Does anyone know if we owe the present debt of $179,000 payable in the next year and $8.361 million between 1 and 2 years (as per page 61 of the audited 2020 Annual Report published on 29 October 2020) to Atlas? If we do, then how does it work that we put placing with Atlas to settle debt with Atlas?????

I am long on Vast so this surprise placing is not bothering at all. I must admit though that as per AP the discussions started with "international bank" in March this year and as per his October interviews with Crux/Other analysts, he was saying the "international bank" has completed risk assessment, environmental due diligence, etc. so it is puzzling why didn't the "international bank" make Vast aware about the requirement to hold cash equivalent to this raising.

I think what happened is AP was planning on revenue/cash from Baita by this time and because of delays he doesn't have it to pay the salaries of Vast employees and other expenses.

What is to ponder is why didn't the approval from the "international bank" was preponed to earlier this week rather than 15 Dec 2020 and then AP could have drawn down from the "international bank" instead of this placing. Something is not adding up.

Risk has certainly gone up with investing in Vast.

When the SP will go up either after 15 Dec 2020 or next year as Vast improves its position in the eyes of the Analysts, existing shareholders and new, and prospective new institutional investors through generating revenue from Baita and kick starting other projects too (listed in the 2020 Annual report) we will all praise AP and the management team. Go long with Vast SP.

Stay positive!

Having read thoroughly all the annual reports and interim ones since AP took over as CEO on 1st March 2018 till the 2020 Annual report, and having understood our current debt position (which I posted yesterday https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/apd708/ @ 06 Dec 2020 16:21), the plan of action from AP seems to be:

1. Baita continues production and generate more revenue
2. Debt facility agreement with the "international bank" comes good on 15 Dec 2020
3. From the revenue generated by Baita and/or draw down from the "international bank" re-commence production at Manaila with a cost effective plan, as @Ben has said the the current flotation plant is very far and as per AP was taking up 30% of the costs
4. Start the exploration/exploitation in Zimbabwe from the revenue from Baita and/or draw down from the "international bank"

As per the above it seems there is no requirement for another placing.

Good Luck to us all :)

Hello All, does anyone know/have a view on what could happen to Vast's LSE listing while operations in Romania (which is a member of EU) if there is a no-deal brexit? Any negative impact to SP due to no-deal brexit?

Hi, I came across this 2015 Deloitte definition of mid tier mining companies, although this is based on gold and africa - https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/za/Documents/energy-resources/za_deloitte_junior_mid-tier_mining_06022015.pdf

In the last line of my previous post, there was meant to be a :) and not two question marks. Let's stay positive, pray and hope Vast turns it around and take the company to new highs :)

COPPER DEMAND:
In Vast's own 2019 and 2020 Annual Reports, there is a mention of increased demand in copper from growth in EVs and general decline in the quality/concentrate of copper in mines globally. This is good news for Vast's Baita mine :)
(https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-10-28/copper-inducing-a-sustainable-future?utm_medium=Native&utm_source=Dianomi&utm_content=Proactive%20Investors&utm_term=183666&utm_campaign=Precious-Metals-2020#)

CURRENT RISKS (hopefully will not manifest as Baita continues production and generate revenue):
1. As per the audited 2020 Annual Report published on 29 October 2020, Vast had no revenue in 2019/2020 from operations (page 27) against a net debt of circa $ 8.2 million (page 63). Most of the businesses have debt so nothing to worry but when we have a business with debt and no revenue (cash) then this is how companies go under as they are not able to pay their debt and can’t pay their employees.
2. As per page 61, we can see we need to repay $179,000 in the next year and $8.361 million between 1 and 2 years
3. In winter months in Romania, sometimes mine production shuts down due to severe weather (of course safety of our staff can’t be overlooked)

Andrew’s plan (I think is going to be):
1. Baita produces as per their forecast published on 07 September 2020 (this report was produced internally by Craig Harvey COO and not by a third party)
2. The asset backed debt finance comes good with “the international bank” (we will know on 15 December 2020 whether this finance has been signed or not and we also know the bank I hope) so we can re-pay the money we owe to the current creditors
3. Having an “international bank” lend to Vast is a green signal to institutional investors (as per the report it seems we have one institutional investor page 3) which is absolutely vital for Vast if Vast wants to become a mid-tier mining company
4. Borrow more money from “the international bank” or use cash generated by Baita to resume production at Manaila and start the Zimbabwe operations for diamonds
5. All of the above and I am sure many other points I haven’t thought of will certainly see the share price rise sometime next year to the levels we have seen in 2017/18 in the range of £0.0040 to £0.0060

We are at an inflection point and we need to generate revenue from operations at Baita (not from more placings) ASAP otherwise we are in a danger zone. Stay vigilant!

Hopefully the share price rise sooner and higher for Vast and for all of us ??

Thank you WHamBoy

Forgot to add that number of shares outstanding were circa 14 billion on 9th November.

As per https://www.vastplc.com/investor-information/shareholder-information/, "The number of ordinary shares in issue: 17,304,569,200 as of 3 December 2020." As per the recent RNSs about 1.5 billion were issued to Andrew as he sold his personal stake in BPPM to Vast. Including Andrew's the total shares issued were 2.8 billion (some went to Roy and both of their sons). And there is a lock in period of 12 months on these shares so they won't come to market until next time this year.

I think Vast will need to consider doing a reverse stock split if the share price don't climb.

Could the share price still be down as the shares have been diluted (circa 17 billion) for the market cap of circa 29 million? By the way what is MMs please? And how can a public company's shares be kept down? It will be based on supply and demand or more buyers than sellers, right?