Member Info for APB98

SHG is down about 35% so far this year. Current price looks like it's at the longer term 50% retracement level and 61.8% is about 10p.
- gold prices are continuing in the longer term down trend since August 2021
- increased uncertainty following the departure of Malafugi
- reduced liquidity due to action from IG and increased uncertainty associated with this
- directors selling during this period of increased uncertainty accompanied by momentum selling
- an attempt by market makers to shake out the bulls

That said, SHG still looks like a good long term hold and buy on the dips. As reinforced by posts on this message board.

I don't want to labour the point but the Average Price column on the share dealing platform is also showing zero.
I guess they haven't got round to updating this yet following the change in ISIN ... but the uncertainty is there in the background.

I'm still waiting to find out why the cost column in my IG share dealing account is showing as zero. The IG webchat support told me the ISIN has changed. He wasn't able to update me further but said he would send me an email once he had obtained further information.
Can anyone answer this before IG get round to sending me an email?

Back in 18th December 2020, the RNS suggested caution e.g.

"It should be noted that there is a risk of dilution to existing shareholders from a possible restructuring and/or partial equitisation of the convertible bonds. Furthermore, if no agreement can be reached with the Company's stakeholders on additional investment, further development activity at Lancaster might not be possible. In such a scenario, Lancaster could continue to produce from existing wells before reaching the economic limit, the timing of which would depend on oil prices, actual production levels delivered and the level of cost savings achievable. The field may then be decommissioned, with potentially limited or no value returned to shareholders. Notwithstanding these risks, the Company will endeavour to secure the best possible outcome for all stakeholders."

More recently, 14th Jan 2021, the mood seems to have improved, if ever so slightly, e.g.

A continued oil price recovery would "...further enhance the significant value we see in our West of Shetland portfolio".

It looks like the latest broker view is Canaccord Genuity (11/6/2020) 14p down from 16p.

SHG looks like a strong company with great prospects but according to an FT article, Magufuli, the president of Tanzania, is trusting in God having rejected Covid-19 vaccines as dangerous and unnecessary. This could dampen bullish sentiment until after Covid recedes into the background.

I noticed closing only on CEY a couple a weeks ago and now the margin is about to be raised to 100%. Don't know when closing only was applied to SHG.
I wouldn't want to close either if getting back in is difficult, so it looks like hunkering down for the duration.

Closing only - -no opening trades, neither long nor short

What's happening?.... this is yet another stock that IG has marked 'Closing only: market unavailable to open'

CEY has been 'sell only' on IG for a few weeks .... and now the move to 100% margin!?

Good news on the discovery but it's still not clear what the end of the message means for the share price:

”these finds, whilst a positive development, will not have a material impact on the likely terms of the required long term solution to improve the Group's capital structure, nor the significant level of equity dilution that existing shareholders are likely to experience in connection with its implementation.”

From ft.com (10th & 11th March) it looks like ARCM views oil and gas acquisitions as unrealistic as based on forward prices of $70 and 50p per therm. Refinancing and acquisitions may therefore not be approved at next week’s court hearing. On the other hand, everything about the stock market looks bleak at the moment.

The maths may be completely absurd but relative share prices compared to shares in issue and barrels per day looked interesting:

TRIN has 384m shares in issue - 3000 bpd - share price ~7p (relatively small number of shares in issue and small bpd matched to low share price)

CNE has 590m shares in issue - 19-23,000 bpd - share price ~80p (relatively small number of shares in issue and approximately 7 x the number of bpd. Share price is approx 11 x that of TRIN)

HUR has 2000m shares in issue - 20,000 bpd - share price ~11p (approximately 4 x the number of shares in issue for either TRIN or CNE which could suggest a share price a quarter of either TRIN or CNE and about 7 x the number of bpd which could suggest a share price 7 x that of TRIN or matched to that of CNE.

So, in comparison to TRIN: 7/4 = ~2 and then 2x7 = a 14p share price for HUR
In comparison with CNE: 80/4 = 20 and then 20x1 = a 20p share price for HUR

... and also contrasted with HUR 20,000 bpd (11p share price) is TRIN which produces about 3000 barrels of oil per day - share price currently ~7p

Cairn expects net production of 19,000 to 23,000 barrels of oil daily in 2020 - current share price of CNE ~ 81p
The Lancaster EPS is currently producing at 20,000 barrels of oil per day - current share price of HUR ~ 11p

I agree... I started with the positive. I like the M&S shopping experience. Exane BNP didn't give any reasons for their downgrade. It would be a shame if M&S disappeared from the high street. Even though I do more of my shopping online, I still like to try clothes on before buying. Even so the share price is still dropping and it's at the lowest it's ever been.

I'm drawn to M&S because I have always felt ok about shopping in M&S so hope hope it continues trading.
Actually, I thought the share price would get support at 180p but following today's RNS and the drop to 156 (it's currently 3.36pm) , I'm wondering if M&S will become another British Home Stores, Debenhams (amongst others). Still, one day doesn't make a market and I'll at least wait until after the coronavirus recedes from the news. There's nothing to be gained from trying catch a falling knife but I'll be looking to profit from a return towards 180, unless the share price takes another major step lower.

EXANE BNP CUTS MARKS & SPENCER TO 'UNDERPERFORM' (NEUTRAL) - PRICE TARGET 160 (185) PENCE

Hi Auson, I can see you have plenty of experience with ~4656 posts and hopefully you will add your own views on this. First, I'm not trying to prove it's a dead cat and maybe you have a clearer perception and I'm interested in alternative viewpoints if you would care to express your view again.

Anyway, dead cats tend to start after unexpected negative events: this would be the unexpected update about the quality of the oil discovery reported by TLW in November, which was followed by the precipitous drop in the share price, eventually reaching a low of 40p on 9th December. After this, the price recovered ~68 (i.e. the 'bounce').

Although an actual ball bouncing hits the ground each time (which would be at 40p) before rebounding each time to a lower high, Bulkowski's examples simply have the share price making lower lows and lower highs after the bounce. This is what has happened with TLW since 13th December. The lower highs and lower lows are easy to spot.

I guess from your tone, you don't think it's a dead cat bounce i.e. you would disagree with Bulkowski's analysis. Of course, you might be right and I might have misinterpreted Bulkowski. Time will tell!

If you thought it was useful for those posting on this board, I would be interested to read your thoughts.

Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns provides an insightful analysis of the dead cat bounce.

This looks like a dead cat bounce. If so, it will be six months to a year before there is any upward momentum. In the mean time the price may drop below 40. It was quite a dramatic drop from 210, so the loss has already been sustained. Market timing can be unpredictable. There is still some potential for positive news and developments. Rather than write this off as a loss, or short sell, I'd sooner leave it on the back burner, possibly add to the position (which is currently underweight) if it drops to next to worthless (don't believe this really) and see if there's any recovery by this time next year.

It looks like POG have already given some thought to possible hedging - "Now we're fully exposed, and we as a board, are considering whether to hedge or not on the basis of new environment--gold price and capex which are quite small, and reasonable margins--if we decide to hedge we will be very careful," the CEO said.