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Seems clear that investors not going to sit on this share for 3 yrs waiting for production and positive cashflow, looks like a movement out of this and into adjacent 88 where they might get some production or a deal with a third party going sooner, if you look at flows and SP movements. This board need to articulate their plan to get to production and show/tell of the capital plan needed to do so.
The flow rates are not exciting, hence to bland market reaction. Still capital raises and at least 3 yrs away from production after the disappointment of Alkid. I don’t expect much upside reaction, they need a deal with a big established Alaska oil player to significantly move the SP back to £1+ . To be frank…after previous disappointments I don’t trust them to get into commercial production generating huge cash flows without other help and expertise…..suspect the market may think the same. Time to cut a deal!!!!!!!!! ?….but they probably won’t while they can just take their money without the scrutiny that a deal would bring. Would be delighted to be proved wrong…….still holding in hope as feel the downside is at least more limited now.
Once you look beyond the short term timescale issues that will be frustrating retail punters (i imagine behind todays drop) I suspect a fresh drill is actually long term good news. Pity they could not get the insurers to agree this approach sooner….but that the insurance industry for you. Hydrocarbons with a lot of pressure are proven to be there, this dip may we’ll be a buying opportunity . I am holding onto what I’ve got… believe in circa 6-12 mths this should look very different….gla, but respect to those who need to release their cash now
Bit of communication always helps, but somewhat insignificant….results of tests might be more interesting, gla
Might need a few yrs and oil to hit $125 long term to get to 35p, but 10p sp would be fantastic in the next 24 mths if that was achieved, all about getting production up and oil prices staying $80 or well above
Bye bye the Mafee, thanks for your thoughts, we won’t be hearing from you again then!
Whatever way you look at it, anyone balanced will recognise this RNS as good news compared to some in the past. Removes some short term risk….over to the production side
How ‘difficult’ was it to see the sp crashing to 20p…..? this is the Wild West of AIM…fooling yourself if taking any comfort of what has gone on before….the game and existential future of this company in ‘in play’.
If Orion or La Mancha have been selling…..then game over
That works if Orion and La Mancha put together a funding package….can they?
I regret to say I see glencore happily seeing the co head towards administration and then buying for peanuts from the administrator……they may not be worried about their current interest if they can secure 100% for not a lot
How do they know ?
Based on todays RNS fidelity still had quite a bit to sell….there will be others….so expect more RNS showing these moves
Might well be institutional shareholders getting out re current sales, they won’t carry the risk here, they might be totally wiped out if it eventually ends in Admin, that risk unacceptable to them..so will recover what value they can now….let retail punters take their shares on.
If glencore want to buy it, they currently hold all the cards. Might well decide not to bail the company out, see it go into administration as co will run out of money, and then buy it from the administrator leaving shareholders with nothing, but they then own and control the mine…..seen it happen before…..so understand the risk!
RNS stated that capex required will increase by’AT LEAST’ 35% pending receipt of the new report, this was excluding ramp up and operational cost changes….and they don’t have the funding to do it for now….so understand the risk rather than the hypers……there was a reason that the sp dropped 60% each for 2 consecutive days…..institutional investors not accepting the risk this now represents…..retail investors will take their own view
Reason for the chaos is that the board have lost credibility and control over the project. Costs up £180m (not just a bit of inflation!), completion of works and projected starting of receiving revenue put back, no-one can now trust what this board says, it will be no surprise to see costs increase still further and more delays to get the works completed. Currently no indication of securing the additional funding that will be required…..so this is now a much higher risk than it seemed a week ago. And their will be continuing uncertainty about what the outcome will be as the board ambushed the market with the latest RNS and their is every expectation that they might do it again. I would like to see board changes after this fiasco and full transparency about the likely costs and timetable, with funding to get there resolved,without the blatant rose tinted goggles from the current board. Then with confidence the SP should correctly reflect the value…….for now it’s a casino, everyone is guessing
Latino, well the real deal of the market says this co is now worth £44m, and I’ll be surprised if it’s not less tomorrow. Clearly £537m well spent……!!!!! this whole board/ exec team should be resigning for losing control of the project costs and mismanaging how it has been communicated, resulting in zero trust and mass value destruction
Wow, can’t recall seeing a 2 day fall like this. I have a small holding worth peanuts now….will leave it to see if it ever comes back or one day crystallise the loss for CGT….seems to be lots of bad news around aim at the moment, damaging what reputation and positive sentiment is left.
Good to see extension of credit facility in sensible time