Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Old and grumpy myself these days mate when you see people saying they have bought nearly half a million shares..... for £12.5k!!! Took me about £30-40k to get that many shares back on the day. This will turn and very soon IMO
I am really happy Iolar has been given the nod, not because I am looking forward to them drilling and that we can ride on their coat tails, but because it is a significant event in the whole Ireland banning future exploration licences and the effects on the industry in the region.
You have to do a lot of reading between lines when investing, especially with EOG with news being very few and far between. After our interims, Hugh did a proactive interview on 12th April. In the Interims they mentioned the climate bill was possibly impacting on decision making for majors, then in the interview he states they are in regular contact with the major ready to farm in with us, and that he knows exactly where the final sign off is up to in their system and they are very confident it will be closed out in the ‘next few months’.
My interpretation of all this, is that there was a particular issue/event which was dictating the situation, my opinion this was the green light for Iolar. This had dragged on from early 2019 with repeated requests for information and delays, so you can understand the nervousness. Yesterday’s confirmation that the Irish government and the minister for DCCAE was not going to block any planned drills is a huge event IMO. CNOOC and anyone else planning a drill could spend millions on surveys, well planning, design etc etc, you wouldn’t want to commit this spend if it was just going to get blocked before the bit turns!
Why the reason for EOG confidence, well I am sure they have had numerous conversations with the authorities and the minister and will have been given comfort this wouldn’t turn into the shambles we see in the UK O&G industry with councillors fighting tooth and nail to block exploration.
Once the excitement with the Iolar drill picks up, and people realise we have planned site surveys this summer and will be drilling a high impact relatively low risk well next year in Inishkea, coupled with farm outs which I now think could be at any time, we could finally get out of this miserable trading range.
Well the Icemax has wasted no time, on route to offshore Ireland https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=9517575
https://www.dccae.gov.ie/en-ie/natural-resources/consultations/Pages/Application-for-consent-for-exploratory-drilling-from-Nexen-CNOOC.aspx Things should start getting exciting now, icemax heading over to Ireland, comfort to our potential farmin partner that the Irish will let them drill!
Don’t think they are waiting on Iolar for starting the surveys. Speaking of Iolar, the Consultantion on consent ended Monday so hopefully the Minister signs this soon enough so that the Icemax currently anchored off Falmouth can make its way to the porcupine! Can’t be hanging around there for no reason so they must be expecting the go ahead soon...
I have emailed the company on this and they said ‘we commenced the approval process at the beginning of the year and they will appear on the DCCAE website for public consultation in due course’ They don’t seem to be too concerned about missing the weather window.... For those who want to keep an eye on this website:- https://www.dccae.gov.ie/en-ie/natural-resources/consultations/Pages/default.aspx#Default=%7B%22k%22%3A%22%22%2C%22r%22%3A%5B%7B%22n%22%3A%22DCCAETopicsMMSMultiTag%22%2C%22t%22%3A%5B%22%5C%22ǂǂ4f696c20616e642047617320284578706c6f726174696f6e20efbc862050726f64756374696f6e29%5C%22%22%5D%2C%22o%22%3A%22and%22%2C%22k%22%3Afalse%2C%22m%22%3Anull%7D%5D%7D
Now I do get your first response saying short term fluctuations, including the breach of $70 oil is not going to make a difference but to then say the oil price, whether it is $20 or $80 doesn’t make a difference on capex spend would get you laughed out of any office
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/ccad0710-32b8-11e6-ad39-3fee5ffe5b5b ‘Oil and gas companies will spend $1tn less on finding and developing reserves between 2015-2020 because of the crude price crash, a leading consultancy says‘
Oil price absolutely effects capex spend I.e. farmout agreements with well commitments, hence the heavy drop in the exploration over the last few years during the oil crash. Agree not the deciding factor and the long term oil price is what’s key but strong prices in the present will definitely have a positive impact on any decision making.