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Good discussion from 35min 30secs regarding EOG and today’s announcement. https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/anglo-african-oil-gas-and-alan-green-37814fa/ Very balanced I thought, stating the obvious i.e. 1 in 3 is odds against but the upside is a transformational re-rating
This update was very very positive and will excite a lot of people, mainly the new investors that have taken twitter by storm and increased the average daily volume here 10 fold!
However, to the long termers, it is just another update when what we really want is confirmation of deals so I do see how this has been interpreted differently.
That said, I am very pleased to see EOG play the game. FO news could only be a few weeks, but they have released this news now to keep the flock engaged. In the past they would have just stayed silent with the mantra, new land when news lands!
There are some questions here, if so good, why has head office not swallowed this up in an instant….. Well as a few experienced on here have said, majors are notoriously slow when it comes to final sign off’s and capital commitment. I do think though, it is EOG and their demands for the best deal which have caused the delay. We know the offer is for 3 drills, the main flagship prospect and the 2 in the porcupine. I think this has been the deal, take it or leave from EOG. You can’t just cherry pick Inishkea, you have to take the three. This is obviously a lot more of a commitment and possibly the reason for a longer sign off?? This is a good strategy for EOG long term, no matter how good the 1 in 3 chances are for Inishkea, it would be great to have some other high impact new flows to fall back on so it is not a sh#t or bust situation.
For those who have been long suffering for many years, you may remember the famous 8 barrel shut in we had on the WF9 well. Those 8 barrels resulted in a 10% drop, and the sp actually never got back to the pre news levels for many years!
So we are looking to get some positive results from the current workover works onshore UK, which is actually not costing us a bean, but if it adds even a couple of extra barrels, hopefully the market will react as dramatic :-)
Hugh has already mentioned that some zones that never produced are now producing as a result of the works....
Need the news to start flowing here asap, which can come in many forms at any point: -
work over results
farmout conclusions with the O&G major for Ireland
Morroco deal
Cairn license prospect inventory
https://mobile.twitter.com/Europaoilandgas/status/1098150270205415425
Tweet via EOGs official page: “Stellar results from ENI. Record oil output powers Eni to almost double operating profit. This major at least has it's mojo well and truly back for exploration.” Is this a clue to our Irish Farm-outs?
Huge amount of chat on Twitter over the weekend, lots of people saying they will be loading up this morning.... could be a good start to the week? EOG need to do their bit and deliver news soon though, or this flock of birds as Hugh once called them will fly off to another stock!
Dunderhead that is a load of rubbish. Desperate not to be drawn in a bb argument but it has been mentioned on here that you have a chip on your shoulder which is exactly how you come across. Always pontificating and having to have the last word. Having negative or contrarian views are as welcome, but constant negative, even when on positive developments is as annoying as constant ramping. Your last post though, even though you have over 20 years in the industry makes you look amateur when it comes to investing. Are you seriously trying to manage peoples risk by stating the chances of success of Inishkea drill!!!!!! First off, 1 in 3 are pretty good odds in O&G, you won’t get much better really for exploration. Second, it’s like you have bumped your head and woke up on a FTSE 100 stock board. This is AIM!!!! We have a market cap of £11m!! its ridiculous that you are putting a negative spin on hopefully soon to be announced farm outs because at 1 in 3 the drill has more chance of failing than winning. Honestly you need pulling up on this, by the time this gets anywhere near spudding, most here will be long gone and it will be a whole other generation of investors (although my strategy is to have top sliced a lot then keep some skin in the game). This is a potentially major gas find close to existing infrastructure for a country desperate for gas. If this were to succeed, EOG could be worth pounds. That is not some inexperienced ramp, based on 30% retained interest on a major gas field will be just that. So yes 1 in 3, but return odds of potentially 500-1. When I go the bookies later today to do my football coupon, if they had an offer, 3-1 bet but as a special promotion it pays out 500 times my stake, do you think I would complain about the odds being 3-1 and cry off saying no thanks it has a good chance it might lose. Do I f#ck, I bang as much money as I can afford to lose. That is AIM, this is not the NASDAQ!
I also feel your assessment of how EOG have acquired all these licenses and find themselves with numerous drill ready targets in what is potentially the next exploration hot spot as ridiculous, especially as someone with so much experience in O&G……..they didn’t just get handed to them and they certainly didn’t work themselves up. You mention emotion, you would think you have a personal axe to grind against this company. And for the record, I have called the BOD myself many if times, on here but mainly direct to them. I also think the SP performance and lack of farmouts/M&A activity over the years have not been good enough, nowhere near good enough. But I am not naive enough to recognise what has been done behind the scenes, and the fact we find ourselves in this potentially really strong position is not by chance or the stopped clock analogy.
And the most annoying thing about the neysayers is true shit house comments like, stopped clock is right twice a day. In other words I will likely be shown to be wrong but at least I can say I called the victory as well.
Disagree, there is being real and being negative. You make a point of hating rampers and calling them on it. I hate de-rampers, both have the same objective of trying to influence. It’s been asked before, if you are truly invested here why try and bring it down????
Tacuma you do realise that of late you could buy these for less than 2.4p which is around a 15% reduction on 2.8p.....I would take that average down on my holding right now! I also think, but maybe wrong but Dreamon has been here longer than 2.8p days? As I say, could be wrong but the miserable sp and miserable board means these days merge in one miserable place to be. I have an idea, on the back of a 15% rise, off the scale volume increase, let’s enjoy it and allow some positive posts without jumping all over it with negative bastard spin, what do we reckon? Could actually help our investment considering we have new posters and clearly new investors looking in!
As mentioned, the Cluff farmout took 6 months for final sign off, which is a great deal for them and at one point on the day of announcement the sp was up over 100%. Dropped a fair bit back now but that is the AIM pump and dumpers, they should see a more gradual rise over coming months. But this a good measuring stick on both timings and impact on sp here. The deal Cluff negotiated is great, but the deal we are waiting for final sign off at head office of mystery major is in a different league. Cluff/Shell still have to shoot and interpret seismic and Shell have until the end of 2020 to make a drill decision. The deal we are awaiting, as we already know is for a drill commitment on 3 different licenses, focused mainly on Inishkea being first in 2020. Don’t forget we have already shot seismic, interpreted the data and are drill ready. We should hear plans for the site surveys to be shot this year very soon! So our deal will get the drill bit turning at least a couple of years before Cluff which is a lifetime on AIM. Also as proactive journalists keep stating, we should expect back costs as part of the deals. When this lands, if it lands, will be game changing for this miserable sp. Cue Dunder now for all the negative alternative spin on the above:-)