RE: TERN8 Jan 2021 10:01
The three core investments (plus InVMA) are DA, Wyld and FVR. All are doing really well, but you won't find that out from Tern because they refuse to issue investee related news, and insist on being valued according to last year's NAV rather than commercial prospects.
The value here lies solely in exits from investees. No one knows what they're worth, but a way to gauge is by following them on twitter and in industry media. In making a decision as to whether or not to invest, you have to form an opinion on the likely sale value of holdings in investees. Tern own 100% of Wyld, but Wyld is younger than DA or FVR. DA have impressive commercial links and a close relationship with microsoft, and many think the latter will buy them. But in my opinion, whilst that's possible, it depends on how many MS clients are using DA's system in conjunction with Azure. And there's no way of knowing that, although it would seem likely to be a substantial proportion, either directly on an SAAS model or on a white label basis though companies like Venafi. FVR are flying, it seems, and have been bought into by the Mayo clinic... I could go on, but all of it is... not so much hearsay.. but is pieced together from info put out by the invetsees themselves, and by third party companies like MS and Venafi.
There seems little doubt that the investees are valuable. When Tern exits is anyone's guess. Could be tomorrow, could be next year. Tern cause much angst amongst investors by refusing to communicate the success of investees to the market, which is why the share price languishes. But one day an announcement will appear stating that the stake in DA or FVR or even Wyld has been sold, and the value of that sale is very likely to be in excess of Tern's total mcap. By anything from 2x to 20x.
That's the punt.
Sign In
Follow the stocks
