RE: Shorting Tssers23 Apr 2026 10:35
You’re right to call out the refinancing point, that absolutely did happen during COVID. But that’s exactly why I’m comfortable using that period as a benchmark rather than a warning sign.
During COVID:
Revenue effectively went to near zero overnight, Fleets were fully grounded globally, Airlines were burning cash at an unprecedented rate, There was no visibility on recovery, Governments imposed restrictions with no clear timeline and that’s what forced refinancing and dilution.
Where we are now is fundamentally different:
1. Demand hasn’t disappeared
People still want to travel ; in fact, demand has been consistently strong post-COVID. This isn’t a demand shock, it’s a supply-side disruption.
2. Partial disruption vs full shutdown
Even in a worst-case here, you’re talking about some grounded aircraft, not an entire global aviation halt. That’s a completely different scale of impact.
3. Balance sheets are not where they were in 2020
Airlines (including easyJet) went through the pain already:
Raised liquidity, Reworked cost bases, Improved resilience
They’re not walking into this blind or overleveraged in the same way.
4. Market overreaction vs structural damage
The market tends to price in fear of worst-case scenarios very quickly.
But unless this escalates into sustained grounding across fleets, and a prolonged inability to operate…it doesn’t justify pricing as if we’re heading back to COVID conditions.
5. Time horizon matters
Short term? Yes there will be volatility, uncertainty, maybe earnings impact.
Medium term? If/when this resolves, you’ve still got:
underlying demand intact, routes reopening fully, revenue normalising
So I’m not ignoring the risk, just saying this is not the same category of shock as COVID.
If anything, COVID showed us the absolute worst case. This situation, by comparison, looks like a temporary operational constraint, not an existential one.
That’s why I see it as a blip rather than a structural hit.
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