Member Info for Android101

candle this week....'when a spinning top forms after a run up or run down in the market, it can be an indication of a pending reversal, as the indecision in the market is representative of the buyers losing momentum when this occurs after an uptrend and the sellers losing momentum after a downtrend'..

'Probably all running out of oil. Will need sail or solar panel powered cars apparently.'

Well they are all busy senior policy makers and politicians.
Sail and solar panel powered cars are on page 2 of the powerpoint, in the azure blue coloured box, top right with an asterix in the corner. At the bottom of the page the asterixed assumptions are written in small print but too small to read if you are a senior policy maker or politician.

'They're not technology shares in my view they're simply businesses that are utilising available technology to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of their businesses.'
But then they cant connect to UK consumers unless they go through the likes of Vod or BT ie via a mobile or fixed device. So whats up with the sharing of value between US and UK.
US currently seems to be exporting their inflation to the UK via stronger $ and hammering the oil price to bring down the US consumer inflation at the pumps etc

Strategic Partnerships/ Joint Ventures rather than full blown merger, I think.
Good strong management and exactly what they should be doing right now.
Certainly dont have to worry about short term/ medium term cashflow

Being positive about this, think he has missed the BPs trading conditions update indicates
Oil price: every $1 above $45 impacts approximately $340m pa on pre-tax replacement cost operating profit
Customers & products refining margin
RMM : every $1/bbl impacts $450m pa on pre-tax replacement cost operating profit.

The Oil sector is not alone is being targetted over environmental concerns, the building industry is now under pressure as well:'

Not just cement, plastics too and anything with an oil component. And everything has an oil component!! 'EverythingEverywhere' lol.
The liberal eurocracry/ fedocracy will get their, symmetries of course and we are on the glide path transition to carbon neutral.
And because their policies and regulation are symmetric, we can be guaremteed a long gide path to carbon neutral.
£4, £6 why not £10?
Renewables generate infinite earnings and are hand in glove with taper exit strategies.
Viva BP, long live BP..
https://www.indifferentlanguages.com/words/long-lived#region-1

FRIDAY CLUB
NSS £3.03
Andy £3.15

BPs trading conditions update indicates
Oil price: every $1 above $45 impacts approximately $340m pa on pre-tax replacement cost operating profit
Customers & products refining margin
RMM : every $1/bbl impacts $450m pa on pre-tax replacement cost operating profit.

Big numbers? $1 or $2bn buybacks if 60% distrutable profits.
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/results-and-reporting/trading-conditions-update.html

Hi zac, happy to be corrected.
BP in Q1 say, 'In the second half of the year bp expects to generate surplus cash flow above an oil price of around $45 per barrel' and generally their narrative proceeds on the same conservative baseline. The CFO also said similar in the Q&A. Conservative forecast which we now know has oil price upside. Of course, how much BP will free up vs working capital requirements, etc, we have to wait and see.

I think BP did guide a deficit in Q2 based on $45 oil. As oil has been consistently higher during the period I think guidance could be beaten. Also, the target of $25 billion of disposal proceeds between the second half of 2020 and 2025
is now underpinned by agreed or completed transactions of around $14.7 billion with approximately $10 billion of proceeds received at the end of Q1. Can expect incremental $1Bn to $2Bn this financial year, probably H2 but I guess BP is managing good news, not bad news.

'During the first quarter, bp generated surplus cash flow of $1.7 billion after having reached its net debt target of $35 billion. During the second quarter, cash flow is expected to be impacted by the $1.2 billion pre-tax annual Gulf of Mexico oil spill payment, further severance payments and a smaller improvement in realized refining margins relative to the quarter to date rise in our RMM*. As a result of these factors we expect a cash flow deficit in the second quarter.
In the second half of the year bp expects to generate surplus cash flow above an oil price of around $45 per barrel with an RMM of around $13 per barrel and Henry Hub of $3 per mmBtu.
bp will provide an update on our third quarter buyback plans at the time of our second quarter results, taking into account the surplus cash flow in the first half of the year as well as the outlook for surplus cash flow.
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/results-and-reporting/quarterly-results-and-webcast.html

its the start. thousands of legal entities in the group. similarly, BP aiming to reduce carbon emissions 30/35% by 2030. Havent done that yet either..

yes, creating separate legal entities, not falling between 2 stools

'However, I think they set the bar very low (as some analysts noted at the Q&As). '
I heard Murray say that on the Q&A.
As you say, anything over $45/$50 is upside and 60:40 split between buybacks and strengthening the balance sheet.
I guess what might be interesting is the call they make tracking the div to inflation. Over 3% according to some sources.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/higher-inflation-is-here-to-stay-for-years-economists-forecast-11626008400

Interesting how it all impacts on 'per capita' for each person on the planet over the same timeframe, that is, if we are to trust global institutions.
Less than 50 years of oil reserves and the shift to 'green' wealth' led by companies like BP!
Consider, China energy is c.56% coal powered and reducing 1% per annum for fear of disrupting economic growth.

Yet economists like Piketty argue the rate of return on capital (r) is greater than the rate of economic growth (g) over the long term resulting in concentration of wealth, and this unequal distribution of wealth causes social and economic instability.

If pension funds are the quickest route to greening wealth with less inequality, Funds will very soon need to own BP with real world plans that can be executed. Otherwise there is no hope of hitting any of the targets on the glide path to zero carbon imo

FRIDAY CLUB
Android £3.18
NSS £3.33

I see international trade agreements representing c1.5% of all trade and complying with a green transition glide path. That leaves 98.5% in the interests of c190 countries with their own economic footprints moving at different speeds, different policies, successes and failures etc. So <1% change/ transition per annum is my bet.

'BP adr flying.'
£ strengthening against the $. Someone mentioned weak liquidity behind thursdays drop. We are picking up pennies in front of steam rollers at the mo

Compound, yes you are right.
TBH I like £5, low volatility and 6% div.

'Android, 365, I haven't spotted that one?'
tbh I was being a bit flippant as we get all kinds of gaps being called when the market gives us a fright.

The gap I refer (back of a knapkin) is on the weekly and front of mind because I was holding alot monday week commencing 2nd March 2020. The closing price was c395. The closest we came to closing that gap is Monday opening 364 on 8th August 2020. So I have 365 as a target of interest.

Must be my charting. I can only see 365