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I dont agree BP left its transition too late. BP started in the 1990's. Agree the current narrative is accelerating the speed of transition/ targets. BP keeps producing while there is demand. Wish they could be clearer about the speed of tapering. CEOs are accountable but policy makers sat on their ars##s waiting for oil data to change? Surely policy makers should be leaning on other industries and be more accountable for greening?

Hope this link works for RDSB and BP trends.
Picture shows circa 250 'working' days of closing prices and a rolling 10 day average price trend line (solid blue RDSB and solid orange BP).
The trend tells me to hold tight to both ...aimo

https://imgur.com/4x8MMMO

The dotted lines show polynomial trends based on volatility. Single dotted wave assumes no volatility. Two wave factors in observed volatility (microsoft excel function if you want to repeat for confirmation and closing prices from yahoo).

At current SP and $1.418/£, 21c div implies c4.8% discount rate imo.
If growth offsets inflation, regulation will taper the fossil capital reinvestment cycle so I assume it is offset by green returns @ 8 to 10%.
I just feel BP is a safe div stock with capital growth potential to the upside.
Thats because risk is currently mispriced due to free money. Tapering and interest rates increasing should be beneficial for capital growth imo because central banks will want a strong link monetising their inflated balance sheets against national oil tariffs and carbon taxation.
Lots more volatility ahead and despite the anti oil propaganda, the oil industry is engine room of economies for a long while yet. I suppose a question is, price for growth (green and or fossil returns) or as a utility/ cash cow paying 4.8% div.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/modigliani-millertheorem.asp

Android £3.14
NSS. £3.15

Then consider there are 190 countries in the imf, 130+ in OECD, the rest of EU, 164 in WTO, 195 in the world, Brexit trade agreements. Thats a lot of legislation before the legal battles are fought, won or lost.

If the IEA is right that all new major project spends must end this year to meet 2050 zero carbon targets, thats alot of cash for shareholders, pay down debt and put up prices to pass on taxes or cover safety and maintenance. Dont want another exxon valdez in rotterdam entreport!

Its not that they dont want Shell product, its just that they have such high ethical and moral benchmark before they can conscience investing in Shell. Well now they can?

I suppose practically this is how to control entry to the EU via the Rotterdam entreport.
NEtherlands is nice and flat so they can get around on bicycles when push comes to shove, Cant imagineeastern european countries signing up to the changes in the green value chains by 2030. I guess thats why the wto and the bureaucrats get the big bucks, to set policy that can be executed in the timeframe. The marketal ready priced this in imo.

And globally the same focus eg the IMF and US and the conversation is ..
'...all countries must act collectively, at the same time, in the next 10 years. Emission reduction should focus on those areas where emissions are concentrated (transportation (27%), power production (27%), industry (20%), agriculture, and buildings). '

and
'...To accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy.... three pillars: (i) substantially raising carbon prices (from $2 per ton today to $75 by 2030) and pricing more emissions (only 23% of carbon emissions are priced today), (ii) providing sufficient funding for public green investments, and (iii) buffering the impact on and re-skilling those currently working in high-carbon sectors.'

will be roll out to concrete, steel and chemicals though oil gets the headline.

NSS Whats good about BP and its strengths:
Global, regional, local and city economies are targeting low carbon electricity and energy.
Its good BP has a strategy partnering in these locations, integrating energy systems driving digital and innovation.
Its economically efficient to transition at the pace of new demand and its good that BP has incorporated the transition in its convenience and mobility strategy eg ev charging hubs etc and leveraging its network reach.
Its also good that BP is maximising cashflows from a resilient and focused hydrocarbons strategy as that is the cashcow
Strengths
Diversified interests
Loyal customers
Global leader
Network
Strong customer relationships

Friday Club

Smithy £3.23
Razu 2.96
Android £3.14
NSF £3.25
Rjb92. £3.19
Nightyard £3.16

Free pension advice planning for when we die :-) https://www.pensionwise.gov.uk/en/when-you-die

'held in an ISA wrapper'
Thats interesting. If you are a 40% tax payer coming up to retirement, you would get that 40% tax added to your sipp for the current tax year. If you put into an isa, you would be taxed 40% and only put 60% in. You'd then need 40% growth either capital or dividend. Over a lifetime the isa route but in the years up to and including retirement when you might only be a 20% tax payer, then sipp?

Jesus, Mary and Joseph and the wee donkey.
LoL

'I made a blunder of my shell buy'
Good thing about blunders is they average out!

All helps ! https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-countries-agree-ease-travel-restictions-non-eu-visitors-2021-05-19/

+20% mid june

" our post-tax return ROCE of 3.9% remains below our cost of capital"
The theme of the webcast was about 'the regulator' and the presentation looked liked a human resources performance management framework. I conclude that VOD is negotiating something similar to BT and OFCOM where they get a 10% return over 10 years (bit rusty memory..). If they get a regulated return on capital like BT, then the SP would fly?

A new ceo for the next operational/ growth phase is all thats required to lift the SP imo.
Financial engineering has been done. Dont need 2 cfo's margherita and nick.
Covid opening will lift footfall/ mobility and away we go?

think Buffett reduced a big lump of cvx.

After cutting the div having said he wasnt going to cut, he will be out of a job if the div is cut again imo