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In the Q&A on the webcast, its indicated that prime ministerial pressure was brough to bear on BP to assist meeting the UKs ambitions. Dudley would have had to deal with the same, perhaps gone about t differently,but still full 100% support for UK PLC imo

BP strategy and cash glide path will win out imo. A lot of young mba analysts plugging new numbers in complex spreadsheets is not the same thing as experienced commercial execs positioning and running an international business. Anyway, if oil really has an end date, prices will keep going up and cash will keep rolling in during the transition.Experienced traders probably mopping up BP today and tomorrow imo

Currently c.3.135

Back of an envelope, could we be looking at c.$2.5Bn buybacks on Q2 trading vs Q1 (assuming 60:40 distribution)? Oil and refining operating profits storming according to the BP rules of thumb tables?
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/results-and-reporting/trading-conditions-update.html

Android £3.28

Hi All, closing SP 321.4
Happy to share the honor with JSB and generally happy we are still trending up.
No particular method except was influenced by Mojos quad witching/ monthend call and option expiries.
Generally money continues to be printed, liquidity continues to support ETF's/indexes like there is /was no pandemic and quality companies like BP have the job of 'monetising' it in the real economy through oil and gas earnings which I believe they will continue to do for Q2, H2 and beyond (not a buzz lightyear quote :-).

Think there will still be a lot of volatility and will top up as cash available. I like the div whether the SP is up or down and will draw some capital for income if the price is right relative my portfolio.

Thank you everyone for all your insights.
GLA

Friday Club
Android £3.20
codders £3.32
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NSS £3.50

'reducing the short term dividend is not too much of a price to pay'

could be the earnings from renewables are limitless compared to oil which has an end date.
If the management dont believe their own renewables strategy perhaps they only distribute oil earnings/ lean toward buybacks due to uncertainty. The div distribution policy could be seen as a lack of conviction by the market and a weakness to trade.

I am a lth..

Nick R ceo of vod said he wouldnt change the div lst year and then he cut it. He's still got his job so theres precedent for a change in div in these strange times.

brent storming now..$74.87

Henrythecat 312.75
45Bob 3.19
NSS 3.20
Android 3.21
JPWilliams £3.22
Cong 3.23
Crixon 329.1

BBB, ..'WTF is this'

If you want an income of £2Bn pa and the discount rate is 10%, you would pay £20Bn to guarentee it ie 2 divided by 0.1 (like annuity rates)
If oil is higher risk than solar because, for example, the IEA say no more investment to get zero carbon by 2050 or just dont develop anymore, you would use a higher discount rate to compensate for risk and recover the upfront cost quicker.

Use the same formula to show solar could have a higher value for [£2Bn] return than is currently in the SP.

Theoretically, the market will pay for the endlesss streams of cash from solar compared to non renewables that have an end date. It might want to legally separate oil from renewables to ensure credit ratings, secure new (lower risk?) debt for new projects etc

Thats interesting. In perpetuity...
Oil might require (say) 20% return. £2Bn @20% = £10Bn
Solar might require (say) 10% return. £2Bn @ 10% = £20Bn
Solar valuation looks good if viewed in this way.

The capital reinvestment cycle glide path to 2030 target is set to maximise cash flow/ 'sweat' oil assets ..60:40 and at some point reaches a solar 'valuation tipping point'. Presumably when the assets are in clearly separate legal entities?

'President Joe Biden’s hopes of channeling billions of dollars into green infrastructure investments to fight climate change are running into the political obstacle of winning over Republican lawmakers who oppose that approach as unnecessary, excessive spending'...'The Republicans prefer a more traditional approach that touches modestly on some climate-related elements but focuses more specifically on transportation and other typical developments'

https://news.yahoo.com/green-bipartisan-bidens-big-infrastructure-042602266.html

I am holding tight to my BP. Think Q2 results will be excellent even after deepwater payment.
At these oil prices, H2 should be storming and no deepwater payment until Q2 2022.
In the meantime, div payment on 18 jun and quad witching/ option expiries might encourage me to top up if mojo is right.

RE: Friday compToday 19:14
Mojo7865 309p
Stockready1 329p
Android 330p
45Bob 332p
Bugerov 333p
Share-be-alright. 335p
TangoFoxtrot 336p

'In a monthly report on Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said demand would rise by 5.95 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, or 6.6%. The forecast was unchanged for a second consecutive month.'
https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/opec-sticks-to-forecast-of-oil-demand-surge-in-second-half-of-2021-2391981

Looking at the ADR v BP price from June last year (c.250 working days).
Suggests we may be exiting a trend where the ADR closes c20cents higher than BP.
By the end of the calendar year at parity then reverting to the ADR. See red trend line through the volatility (orange line).
AIMO and dyor..

Right axis shows the actual gbp/usd over the same period.

https://imgur.com/a/qvPG9B7

Its efficient to have a mix of debt. In principle, if can replacr debt later at lower interest rates for new green projects (roce 8 to 10%) then paying off some debt now at higher interest rates could be beneficial ie more distributable to shareholders, less interest to debt holders. I suspect thats already in the 60:40 strategy where BP will focus on strengthening its balance sheet and credit rating.

monthly fee annuitises cash flows so less seasonal I guess.
Maybe the great programmer in the sky is targeting a certain level of 'annuitised' earnings before credit rating agencies return to div cover vs interest cover. Bonds hardly moved vs our 50%+ drop over last 3 years or so.