Member Info for Android101

'ouch holding Poly must hurt more than Lloyd s and VOd'
I bought Poly at 504, 506, 508 and 512 today and now out at breakeven (waste of time, really). Cato keeps me on my toes though. Had enough of this week for sure

'at least it seems to be holding up'
Dont forget its also witching week/ 3rd friday of the month and options expiry.
Wait for news on M&A/RNS - Italy, Spain, UK. Something soon if they want to put restructuring costs through this FY, imo

Resistance 140
Support 128
according to this site!
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/VODAFONE-GROUP-PLC-15867071/charts/

Looking forward, anyone got a view what (if any) impact the second tranche of MCB maturing next month will do to the share price.

'In March 2019, Vodafone Group Plc ('Vodafone') issued a two-tranche mandatory convertible bond ('MCB'), the first tranche of which (£1,720,000,000 1.20 per cent. Subordinated Mandatory Convertible Bonds; ISIN XS1960588850) matured on 12 March 2021, and the second tranche of which is due to mature in March 2022.'

No worries Rob, Dan. I dont understand half the stuff that gets posted on here either LoL

Dan, 5k @ £10.83 each. I only intended to buy £5k top up. Another good day today!

Dan, 'you are Clouseau', its a true story. The wife wants to use the profit to buy a labradoodle, also a true story. I think I am going to call it Kato.

Topped up VOD and Poly today.
Instead of £5k Poly I accidently bought 5k and before I realised, was £k's up!
Now 'I kneau' how hedging works. I dont recommend this strategy though?

Good find Mikey. I was always surprised VOD gave 5G access to VM especially as VOD incurred the cost of end to end service and network build. I drove past 3 HQ in Maidenhead yesterday and the building is empty, moved to Reading apparently. A 3/ VOD tie up probably pushes VOD to cut the overhead cost of the Newbury Campus also (or share it).
Looks like UK deal landing anytime soon? Hope the SP dips so I can buy back my recently sells.

**I guess if VOD is entering a period of low/ less intense capital reinvestment, then it must look to innovation to grow profits

..or fewer participants in their markets?

Dan, ' It wont take him long before he loses the whole lot back, right down to his last 3p'. I think you are right.
I am sure we have all met a few characters over the years. Hopefully VOD wont take my last 3p but if it did get down to 3p I think I might be betting the house on it LoL

'Telecom providers are better equipped to raise prices than Airlines, look at the recent CPI plus 3.9% price rises'
I guess it different in each 'market' and the timing of any effect is different as each regulator in each market drives for a 'common' agreed definition of cost, ie a WTO definition.
For example, rather than raise prices in India, fierce competition on price has resulted in the Gov taking an investment position to facilitate a new ownership structure. In the end, there is no such thing as 'free' as someone has to pay for it.

So its inevitable there will be 'inefficiencies' in SP pricing. On the other side, the regulator wont allow an inefficient operator to pass on costs to the consumer (citizen) and simply lowering costs to avoid losses ultimately results in an operator exiting a market while more efficient operators will realise profits over regulated prices by investing and or innovating. As a consequence, gains in productive efficiency put pressure on final service prices (and contribute to end user welfare).

I guess if VOD is entering a period of low/ less intense capital reinvestment, then it must look to innovation to grow profits. I suspect the answer is some mix of both investment and innovation on a glide path to lower long run incremental costs... as VOD says in its strategy 'Vodafone is strongly positioned and through 'increased investment', we are taking action now to ensure we play a leadership role and capture the opportunities that these changes create.'
https://investors.vodafone.com/about-us/our-purpose-and-strategy

Fleccy, Compound, thanks for very thoughtful structured posts.

The only thing front of my mind why there are inefficiencies in pricing and in particular, the airline industry vs telecoms is methodology. For example, where analysts attribute higher value to £1 receivable in time 1 vs £1 receivable in time 20. The discounted cashflow models they use try to express the time value of money in todays terms and so make estimates about future interest rates, inflation, growth, scientific improvements etc. I suspect the recovery from the pandemic changed some of their assumptions about cash receivable in time 1 where airlines quickly ratchet up whilst telcos have broadly annuitised their returns in line with regulatory controls over a longer regulated time period.

Even with low telco capital reinvestment cycles, the regulator probably would not allow higher returns in time 20 and regulate they are passed on to consumers (citizens) in lower regulated tariffs. I guess a telco could crystallise some of that future value before it is regulated by restructuring now, hence the current bid/ M&A excitement.

'Good luck though if you think you can beat the market & the bookies?'

Maybe. Saw this today. Says his 'ambition is to skin Betfred for a million.'
https://metro.co.uk/2022/02/09/nottinghamshire-pensioner-wins-2686-from-3p-bet-16079187/

Hi Dan,' So what you mean by top slicing?'
Locking in some gains on VOD purchases and leaving the balance to ride any volatility. I sometimes use leveraged long or short products to balance my risk and stop fiddling with my stockholdings! Today was a day not to fiddle with the VOD holding imo, hence not selling.

Bernstein analyst Stan Noel yesterday maintained a Buy on Vodafone with a price target of 160p. Noel’s price target suggests 15.57% upside potential.
Consensus among analysts is a Strong Buy based on 13 Buys. The average Vodafone price target of 170.75p implies 23.34% upside potential to current levels.
https://www.tipranks.com/news/why-vodafone-rejected-iliads-bid-for-its-italian-unit

Dan, 'how do you know what the top is? Are you selling today?'
Not selling today. As Frankie says 'shooting stars never stop, even when they reach the top'

Porsche, agree generally but short term, for example, someone bought 170m at c138 on Wednesday. I am just following the money and top slicing. I wont be following it down to 110 ' if a bid or breakup doesn’t materialise'!
Google is a great company so good luck.

Dan, 'Perhaps the market liked the bid? Hopefully it will be increased?'

'Vodafone viewed the proposal as too low, people familiar with the matter said earlier. While Vodafone is keen to participate in any Italian consolidation, it believes the potential synergies that Iliad could extract from a combination would warrant a higher price, according to the people. Iliad said it would “pursue its standalone strategy” in a responding statement, a suggestion it won’t increase its bid.'

Negotiation just starting?
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/vodafone-considers-rejecting-iliad-13-113238436.html

'there she blows'