NLMK NA Ebitda 2021 one billion usd according to Kommersant news article of today, Evraz NA same year ebitda 321 mln - 3 times less so my zero value estimate seems better for Evraz NA valuation.
Evraz NA results year by year:
2014 last good year made 100-150 mln free cash flow
2015 minus 100-150 mln cash loss, survived because helped by the Russian assets
2016 minus 200 mln cash loss, survived because helped by the Russian assets
2017 minus 100 mln cash loss, survived because helped by the Russian assets
2018 minus 150 mln cash loss, survived because helped by the Russian assets
2019 minus 100 mln cash loss, survived because helped by the Russian assets
2020 minus 150 mln cash loss, survived because helped by the Russian assets
2021 50 mln cash PLUS! Makes some money
2022 200 mln cash PLUS! Makes some money
According to Bloomberg NLMK is planning to sell its NA division for 500 mln usd. The article I have in Russia says those assets produced 700 000 steel and 2 mln tones of steel products and had 2021 revenue at 3.1 bln usd and ebitda of 1 bln usd. This and TMK very cheap NA asset sale is the reason why I value Evraz NA at zero more or less although I have no time or expertise to compare the assets owned by Evraz NA to NLMK's NA.
Philip you keep thinking that you know more about Russian stock market/laws/accounts than me. It is very very very bold of you. I have helped a lot of people to recover money lost in Evraz and I do it the way I see fit cause it is MY money. If you really believe in what you say - place a bid. Buy shares. That is all. Little talk, place a bid. Buy out people at X pounds since it is 5X pounds worth as you say. Make "EASY" 500%. No? Why? Cause really it is less than 1 usd worth to you? Anyways, bye!
Philip/Evraz writes in a polite way so I will respond in kind. The C (S) accounts mean that your ESO shares if you even would be able/willing to get them (I will not write why most of you would choose not to become ESO shareholders of Evraz Russia - think for yourself) in Russia will be frozen until the west lifts all the sanctions which is until Putin steps down which is 2040s. Right now they are a lot of foreign stocks which were owned be Russian citizens before the war which are locked inside Russia. For example Apple or Nvidia stocks. They are trading at 20% of the NYSE/NASDAQ price since they are locked in Russia forever. And these are tradeable stocks! Yours if you manage/choose to get Evraz ESO shares will be locked so even cheaper sale price if you manage to get the Rus Gov permission. This is basically zero. As I wrote before - get a Russian friend/wife asap if you want to save anything. I will no go into how much Evraz NA is - you value it your way but don't buy shares, I value it at zero (debt) and bet my own money on ESOing.
Out of all the people on the Phils group I will respect only people who WILL REALLY pay more than I do for the shares. These people are worth something. But there are none such people. You know why? Cause you don't believe a word you say.
Anthony has registered a 100th nickname? I am still not buying your shares! As for the ESO - you all told me it will never ever happen! Now you know it will happen - that is good you have finally come to the truth!!! Just one more step - read the law and see for yourself what you can get in case of the ESO. And read when this amendment for the law was made by the way. Also - who wants to call me names - come to Russia and we will talk with you disgrace to society losers.
You say: Evraz has no desire and plan to do ESO yet
how do you know that? any proof? YOU don't want it to ESO - that's ok, but speaking for Evraz plc? I don't know what they want since I am not an insider, I just think that ESO will benefit both big shareholders and Rus gov, so they would do it and I bet my money on it.
NA assets have been cash negative for all time and have some debt - i personally value them at zero or very low. If they stay in the Evraz plc after ESO - i absolutely don't care. Just remember that PLC has 2.5+ bln usd debt they still have to cover somehow with all the money locked in Russia.
Putin allowed the use of US property to compensate for the seizure of assets
23/05/2024
The war of sanctions
Vladimir Putin (Photo: Gavriil Grigorov / Sputnik / Reuters)
Russian courts have been granted the right to use American property in Russia to compensate for damage caused by the seizure of Russian assets in the United States, according to a decree by President Vladimir Putin.
We are talking about the movable and immovable property of the United States, American companies and citizens located on the territory of Russia, as well as securities owned by them, shares in the authorized capitals of Russian companies and other property rights of the United States and Americans in Russia.
so far no UK or EU citizens, but we all know where this is heading. Evraz plc needs to beg for ESO as soon as possible.
I have enough shares already to support a 1 usd per share buyback. For the prices other western businesses had sold Russian assets I am 100% sure 80% of the corporate/funds/banks Evraz plc shareholders would accept this buyback offer with pleasure.
the typical price of the out of Russia deal is like this:
Just for you all to understand the real prices here is today's news from Russia. The price is 2 bln for 18 bln of pure money just for the permission to take to UK 2 bpn out of 17! This is why the situation of not ESOing is so bad in my view, cause it would mean a sale like this.
Expobank buys HSBC subsidiary at 90% discount
03/21/2024, 15:31
Tatiana Voronova
The transaction amount could be only 2 billion rubles with the bank’s capital of 17 billion
The Russian subsidiary of the global investment bank HSBC is being sold at a record discount for the Russian market. Two sources familiar with the details of the deal confirmed this to Frank Media. One of them knows that the discount will be “significant”, i.e. much more than what is required by law. The second interlocutor indicates that an option was discussed in which it would amount to about 90% of the capital. Thus, HSBC Bank can leave with a minimal multiplier - with the bank’s capital of 17 billion rubles, the transaction amount could be about 2 billion rubles.
I started buying in August 2023, are you in any way better now than in august 2023? Are your Evraz shares worth more? I don't try to scare anyone, I just tell it as it is and give people a great way to recoup their money. You are fooling people with idiotic hopes for dividends, buybacks, etc. Foreign Investors in FIVE X5 - a Netherland entity (which Russian part is doing way better than even Ezraz Russia) has just lost 100% of their investments due to ESO. If somebody bought them out before - that they could have at least save some money. That is such a dumb way people loose money cause they are unable to understand anything in Russia!
Evraz Russia is doing supergood, although the bond yield is a very low 18.6%) Also finally start to understand that Evraz Russia has almost nothing to do with Evraz plc. The link is broken and can not be restored any time soon. No money goes from Russia to Plc ever.
Also from todays news - Fridman (another Russian oligarch) is suing Luxemburg for 15 bln usd of frozen assets meanwhile he is ESOing his biggest in Russia retail chain X5 Five. So having 15 bln usd frozen does not stop anyone from taking the Russian assets from the foreign holding company back to Russia as Evraz oligarch should do. I still wait for the ESO in Evraz plc.
The only hope for the Evraz plc is selling Evraz NA at a very high price. So far I see no buyers or no will to sell. And even if they sell high, they won't pay divs or buyback since they are themselves sanctioned and paying divs to a frozen sanctioned account makes zero sense.
The European Commission has announced today the first withdrawal of income from frozen Russian sovereign assets in July 2024. Money will go to Ukraine's military. For now 3-5 bln euro a year. Russia has repeatedly stated that it would respond in kind. Evraz plc (a UK entity) needs to push for ESOing as soon as possible in my view before it gets hit in these retaliation strikes.
This is from WSJ article "abramovich-pledged-3-billion-for-ukraine-war-victims-the-money-is-frozen-in-the-u-k": Even before Russian tanks entered Ukraine in February 2022, Abramovich and his advisers moved quickly to shield him from global sanctions by transferring a large chunk of his wealth into his children’s names and sailing his fleet of yachts out of territories where Western sanctions applied, according to filings and people familiar with the matter.
But nonetheless 3 USD bln from the football club seem to still be in UK frozen which this article says so you have not entirely made this 7 bln figure up which is good. Although both in Yandex and in Polymetal cases the funds did just absolutely nothing to protect their client's money.
I really have no idea about the frozen assets of them personally - it is not covered in Russia and I have seen no documents or official statements whatsoever. All I know is that the FC Chelsea he had was sold and the money was frozen or something. Never even heard about the 2 other guys.
What exactly is illegal? It will all be legal - Evraz NTMK can do whatever they want with the assets I think. And second thing - you keep mentioning these frozen assets of RA and others. But I have never seen any official numbers or proofs that these asset and freeze even exist. And this is all not a story!!! It is a great risk for our investment in Evraz, potentially nullifying even my eso-protected shares this is why i worry.
Philip how can you discuss them for years since I saw the details in the Evraz NTMK in RU bonds placement offer? I get that you don't understand debt/accounting schemes. So very simple - there are 2 companies: Philip Plc UK and Philip Russia. Philip Russia buys/has 3-4 bln usd of Philip Plc UK debt. Philip Russia than writes it down as uncollectable (HAS ALREADY HAPPENED) and sells it for 100 mln to Mr. Formally Unrelated. Then Mr. Formally Unrelated comes to Philip Plc UK and makes it pay 3-4 bln usd of Philip Plc UK debt. Philip Plc UK has no money and pays for the debt with Russian assets and NA assets may be. I want you to formulate your questions at AGM not as a spoiled child about dividends, but as a serious investor - main idea being that you DO NOT want the company to sell the debt to Mr. Formally Unrelated/assets to Mr. Formally Unrelated/etc. Here our interests go along cause I want the company to be whole to ESO which can happen any time now (I hope the gov will stop sleeping and release the list part 2), and you just want it to be whole to make money).
Philip, they can sell the debt very cheap from Evraz Russia to an "unrelated" entity and this "unrelated" entity will approach Evraz plc with 3 usd bln of Evraz plc debt to settle the debt with the sale of the Russian assets. And I see signs that this might be their plan. I was fully invested into ESO thing, but the RusGov has made Eso into stages and if this asset for debt sale happens than all these shares will be worthless for me too as well as for you. Philip, i get that you have invested all your money and life into Evraz and feel better listening to the optimists in your cult chat but at least try to think rationally and stop being a clown asking idiotic questions instead of the real ones. See what has happened in Polymetal and Yandex cases. Anthony MC/Plena/Teegak/Avingon etc - I am NOT buying you at ANY price, on ANY terms, you should consult a physiatrist ASAP. Write your messages to Philip, not me, maybe he will buy you out. I will not buy your shares even if you follow me on your knees for a month begging to buy them. I have no idea how to put it in a more convincing way!