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I’ll let you have my POG shares for $1 Andreyaaa
Deal?
you mean POG Petropavlovsk? It has already suffered Russian assets stripping via a "sale to a friend" so it is a 100% very round shiny zero. I am not buying zeros. I buy 50 000+ lots of Evraz at $1 before the stripping deadline when it also turns into zero. If you can find me a seller with 100 000+ Evraz shares I would pay you a commission for it.
"i am a Rus citizen and hope (there is a lot of factors that can make it impossible even for me! so very high risk)"
So you mean that there is an even greater reward potential.
yes, but the troubles are a lot, esp with Evraz 2 months re-register process. I have a way easier deals with FIVE X5 which will also fall under the 670 law so I bought a lot of them instead. For now it's my biggest position and probably will be.
"Smart guys are selling Evraz "
So why are you buying?
i told this i think 10 times - i am a Rus citizen and hope (there is a lot of factors that can make it impossible even for me! so very high risk) to exchange the Evraz PLC shares to the shares of the new entity in Russia which will hold the stripped from the empty entity Evraz plc Russian assets. This will happen in 1 month or so under the 670 Russian law the only thing holding this all back is the Yandex deal since the list includes them. This is a compensation for Roman and others from the Rus Gov for the sanctions - a way for them to take back the assets.
Smart guys are selling Evraz while they still can and buy Petrobras or Glencore or if you are feeling very very risky Polymetal in Kazakhstan. All three seem to me a far better option than sinking with diamond hands.
I consider offers like 3-5 dollars only as an unfunny joke, these are insane price levels in the current situation. Market is 1 usd, people are selling, so I don't need to deal with people with unrealistic prices. Most people with high offers are basically Gamestop "diamond hands" crowd who don't know anything about the 670 law or eurobonds default or Evraz in general etc. They are like "I bought for 1 pound and want to sell for 4, I hate you a lot for offering me less". 670 law will hit them very hard but it would be too late to sell then so they go to the bottom holding the shares. Many of them have not even bothered to get the paper certificate or even know nothing about it!
I don't now what is big blue
I am glad no one thinks Evraz should cost more that 1 USD and ready to pay more than 1 usd for it. That proves that you are all capable to count the math with 1,2 BLN USD in NA assets and 3 BLN USD in debt and what is left after you do the math.
I wanted to address the moment that people think that there is a choice of whether to benefit the Rus or not. In reality the 670 law is written in a way that the real choice is a) you take some money for your shares (50% of what the price was in 2020 or 100% of the price on LSE end of trading if we talk about 1 usd and in 2020 situation was way better) or b) the Rus gov helps to take your assets and pays you a small compensation to a forever frozen account held by the Rus gov in Russia, so basically you lose 100%. In my mind the choice is obvious if you are not an enemy to yourself.
Hm that could be very very bad for me if the Evraz bosses had already sold Russian Rasp assets to themselves from the Evraz PLC not waiting for the stripping. For foreigners Rasp is lost in any case as well as the other Rus assets so that could be only my problem.
Sanctions for individuals were quick released back in 2014.
Will be the same case here
no they were not. Sanctioned individuals almost always remain the the SDN lists forever. Russia is now basically part of China - 90% of everything is Chinese now, so there is no solution in sight since China is viewed as the top rival of the west.
Evraz bosses have to be mentally ill to relist after what has happened to them from sanctions and also the end of the war does not mean the end of sanctions. Iran is still sanctioned for 40 years after everything has happened.
You can buy my 130k shares for $1.50 each but they are in nominee account :D
why so many people decided not to take the paper certificates? I don't know of a way to buy in nominee account
All right - here are the facts:
1. Evraz plc has more than 3 bln usd in debt (you can see for yourself on their web site)
2. Evraz is losing it's Russian based assets in several months under the 670 law. This almost all of the business.
3. Evraz plc is right now in default on it's debt because they can't move money from Russia and sanctioned to death
4. Evraz plc has North America assets unreachable for the Rus Gov which were unprofitable even on the EBITDA level for many years but 2022-2023 seem to be fine for them. EBITDA (not profit!) for NA assets was 2019 = 38 mln usd, 2020 = minus 28 mln, 2021 = 321 mln, 2022 = 620 mln. Average ebitda = 238 mln a year, ebitda multiple 5, price 238*5 = 1200 mln, which is not enough to cover the debt.
6. There might be some compensation from the Evraz Russia for the seized assets, but the Gov regulation explicitly states that it would be frozen in Russia on the frozen account.
so basically any high hopes above 1 USD per share would be on that the war ends tomorrow and Russia gets the reserves back and unfreezes the compensation, which in return helps Evraz plc avoid upcoming bankruptcy.
Once the ESO list hits there will be 10 or more similar ESOed unsanctioned traded by brokers companies to choose from (X5 FIVE, TCS Group, Fix Price, YANDEX, OZON, Globaltrans, Headhunter, etc. - about 50 usd bln market cap total) and a lot of foreign sellers trying to get something before the collapse. But the deals in Evraz take forever to register in the registry and are very hard to make so I want to start now before the ESO deadline. Once the deadline for converting to ESO is within 2 months no Russian will be buying them since we will get zero for our money as well as a foreigner since we will simply miss the date for ESO. There was forced conversion of ADRs for Rus citizens in 2022 - those Russian citizens who missed it for any reason lost everything and are now desperately trying to sell ADRs at 10-15% the underlying stocks value. I am ready to switch to other ESOed companies, just know better the metal and coal business than IT business.
Under 470FZ Rasp and the metal assets in Russia will not be part of Evraz plc, it absolutely does not matter how much they cost for you!!! Russian citizens are buying Rasp in Russia on Moscow Exchange to get the divs after it's stripped from Evraz plc.
No no - i see your points, you think that somehow a fairytale comes and it all goes back to 2021 and if you count the assets as if nothing had happened it costs a lot. That's 100% true, but 470FZ and the war happened and sanctions, so it's just misleading to count that way.
Deals were done till upto 2$ a share and most progressed last year.
well now we talking real market values and prices thank you. "up to $2" is not that far from good price if not for the 470FZ. Last year people sold at 50 cents and in large quantities, but I was buying other stuff unfortunately.
All right - what was the price you paid for the OTC deals? $5? $3? maybe less than $1?)) I don't know Roman personally - it's just a huge beautiful park for all.
btw for Poly it's not over yet - they will have to sell the Russian assets and you will not like the price i think
I know the law really well. Also not mix 300-400B$ worth of state assets with oligarchs asset or our situation. Different cases.
For the gov its collective punishment 100% = foreigner's took their 300B = they took foreigner's assets
If you ask Evraz , you know what there strategy is around Eso.
Evraz will have to follow the law, they have NO choice if you read it. In reality FIVE Etalon Evraz all are waiting for the law to end this nonsense of "plc-ing" and get their business back.
Maybe you should ask, so we can safe time here and are at the same level of understanding.
have you asked? I think they can not tell the truth since the west still has their billions