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I can agree and admit that I was wrong about the ESO dates. But Putin said that it all should be finished by 31/12/2023 - so I really thought that it would start in September 2023 to get finished by the Putin's deadline. I have put enormous effort to transfer the shares to me as soon as possible so I truly thought that way about the dates. I still think that Evraz will still be ESOed this year. There are not that many options, I have pointed them out in the first post in this thread, and 100% Evraz PLC will that way or another part with the Russian assists, which are in my view 100% value of the Evraz PLC minus debt, since they are of strategic value for the Rus Gov. So - miracle, asset sale, ESO or nationalization. My view is ESO.
It is funny how you went from ESO law is a scarecrow and will never be implemented to Evraz is not interested in ESO)
Evraz opinion on ESO does not matter, the law is written that way that the RUS Government and only the Government decides who gets ESO-ed! It is compulsory.
Rus Gov does not like that key steel mills and coal mines and vanadium factory are owned "by the enemy from UK" and Evraz will be ESOed no matter who you talk to. Also I hate when people like you pretend to know much and talk to the right people but won't others anything since it is "a secret". In most cases it turns out it is all 100% made up wet dreams.
Rus Asset sale will be a catastrophe for me as well as for you since we will get more or less z-e-r-o for the shares of the PLC in this case, I bet no one waited for it in Polymetal/Yandex but it happened.
I still see no one buying at 2 dollars, there are no such deals, you are lying.
Just for you all to understand the real prices here is today's news from Russia. The price is 2 bln for 18 bln of pure money just for the permission to take to UK 2 bpn out of 17! This is why the situation of not ESOing is so bad in my view, cause it would mean a sale like this.
Expobank buys HSBC subsidiary at 90% discount
03/21/2024, 15:31
Tatiana Voronova
The transaction amount could be only 2 billion rubles with the bank’s capital of 17 billion
The Russian subsidiary of the global investment bank HSBC is being sold at a record discount for the Russian market. Two sources familiar with the details of the deal confirmed this to Frank Media. One of them knows that the discount will be “significant”, i.e. much more than what is required by law. The second interlocutor indicates that an option was discussed in which it would amount to about 90% of the capital. Thus, HSBC Bank can leave with a minimal multiplier - with the bank’s capital of 17 billion rubles, the transaction amount could be about 2 billion rubles.
Infinity888 in Russia if you control the company you can make it send the production to you without receiving money as long as you want - see Rasp report for yourself. So $3,5 bln debt is by all means not gone, most money is in receivables that Evraz may/will never receive. As for competition - Magnitka MMK which is about the same as Evraz showed only $361 mln Free Cash Flow in 2023. Severstal/NLMK are more great iron ore companies, can not compare them to Evraz PLC.
No one is offering more than 1 pound and those offers pay with at least 120 days delay, after the share transfer which takes forever. And you have to trust them that they will pay you eventually! I am the only one proven and paying.
Share trading: I am focusing more on buying out the institutional holders right now, but still offer best terms for individual investors who want to get real money for Evraz plc shares. I have just received from Evraz the certificates for the 4th of December 2023 deals, so if you sell to someone else who promises to pay you upon transfer – get ready to wait for 4 months and then may be get the transfer declined by the bank. I pay 100% on the day of the deal. My price is 0.8 gbp per share, more if you have a lot of shares. Contact me at chinaadr2021 at yandex.ru . Minimum amount 8000 shares, you have to be sane and sober. I have bought 15 people so far.
Evraz news:
ESO list first edition is out. ESO-ing means that Russian assets get torn away from the UK Plc under the mandatory 470 law. FIVE X5 – Russian top retail chain with 25 000 stores - another company I bought a lot is in this ESO list, I am very happy. Evraz PLC is not in this first addition of ESO list, but I have invested a lot of my own money into the idea that it will be eventually ESOed, so I put my money where my mouth is. The Russian Gov had claimed in 2023 that there would be one list of companies to ESO, so I thought it would include all the companies, but the Rus Gov decided to start with 6 first companies and then add others like Evraz. I have no idea when the second part of the ESO list will be out.
Raspadskaya coal company – the key subsidiary of Evraz and value generator - has released 2023 results. The results are ok, but the cashflow is bad. If you add the numbers starting with the Evraz 1st half of 2022 net debt of 3,5 bln dollars and calculate the debt on 31/12/2023 you can see that there is still a lot of debt. My estimate is 2,5 USD bln in debt on Evraz PLC combined. The main reason is that some huge customers of Evraz are not paying for the metal/coal send to them. This leads to Evraz essentially sponsoring some “unknown” (wink) Buyers. It is a common practice in Russia to do this if you don’t want to show the money.
This debt situation leads to variants for Evraz PLC fate:
1. Oligarchs manage to persuade the west to abandon sanctions and unfreeze everything before the ESO process hits. I think that it is almost impossible since there is no time left.
2. ESOing. Foreign shareholders lose almost everything if they don’t have a Russian wife/entity, oligarchs regain Rus assets.
3. Evraz PLC does what Polymetal and Yandex did – i.e. sells all Rus assets for debt plus a tiny amount of money to repay some Eurobonds debt. For me and you this is super bad, shares are a zero.
4. Russian GOV seizes all Evraz Rus assets for zero. There is a huge wage of nationalization right now in Russia as the war gains steam, so this can happen, but lets hope that oligarchs do nothing stupid.
I suggest CWWX and other sore losers you man up and stop calling people names on the internet and then hide behind your moms skirt. Grow up. Look at me - I never called Philip any offensive names despite him banning me for absolutely nothing. Because I am a man, and you are a void of loser-ness.
Antony MC - you have offered your 111K shares to everybody, but most people think you are on drugs or something and therefore unable to realize your own intentions, so I don't know how to proceed. I don't do any deals with people who seem to be unreasonable/untrustworthy. Even if Philip came to me to sell, I would do the deal with him, cause at least he is in his mind. Although he absolutely didn't understand the scheme I offered him for ESO insurance.
All right - what is better - a rose world where Philip lives or my real world? I think that it is way better to see the situation as it is in the real world than somehow dream about unrealistic things. Evraz will be ESOed, chances of losing all in Evraz PLC are high (not 100%, but high in my opinion). I get that you want to hate someone for your loss, but I personally have done absolutely nothing wrong. I see that people take loans on their homes reading Philip and risk their family wellbeing believing Pro and being greedy and not selling. That is just plain wrong from any point of view. They can lose everything.
Philip-PRO, Brian and others have a RUSSIAN wife/entity/friend they will transfer the ESO shares to. This is why they welcome the ESO and stripping the Rus assets. All other investors - Ask yourself do you have it? Or will you lose all? This is beyond terrible behavior from them - just making people lose money out of fun.
Philip, you understand that once Evraz is added into ESO list (this was the first addition of the ESO list) and your followers lose almost all YOU will be the main reason for them losing money? You talk people out of selling and deny reality, and most of them can't see for themselves the risks of ESOing and the sitaution as a whole. If Evraz is not ESOed, which I think is 1% probability with 99% percent of ESO-ing, but still then they wil sell the Rus assets in a Polymetal style and give Z-E-R-O to Evraz PLC.
No the price I offer for Evraz shares is 1 usd/0,8 gbp as it was, I have bought a lot of people, now in Egypt on vacation, if more people want to sell - write me at chinaadr2021 at yandex.ru minimum 8000 shares, sanity and paper certificate
Where do businesses in Russia get their capital from?
from Russian banks. It is a rather small market, but the economy is also not big and most of it was build by the ancient Soviet civilization and later stolen by the oligarchs so they basically got the assets for free and don't really need any capital.
But Russian domestic businesses access the international markets though right?
Russia is selling almost only commodities (oil, gas, wheat, steal, coal), so it is impossible to sanction, since the market is huge and global and a lot of the market is China alone. Way bigger problem is imports since the domestic production of complicated products within Russia is very low.
George1252 wrote I have 25,000 shares in Evraz. Is there a way to sell them or what is the situation with them for the future?
write me email chinaadr2021 at yandex.ru or buy a premium here and write me a direct message
WolfofWarks wrote "If this were to happen Russia would basically shut themselves out "
the Gov in Russia refers to foreign investors as pigeons who would fly, do a circle or two, and come right back. Argentina is defaulting on its debt every 10 to 20 years and still investors buy it's new bonds every time as if nothing has happened. Also the ESO law is a retaliation measure for the seized Rus reserves as they see it.
Jotom750: The Rus business of Polymetal PLC is out and it is sold exactly as I wrote "for the debt and 300 mln usd", which leaves Poly with a KZ business worth in my view 2 bln (more or less 5 ebitda) and 300 mln usd cash. That is not bad, but I bet not as good as people thought the sale price of the Rus assets would be. I would not buy Polymetal PLC now because I don't believe in gold. But if you believe - the KZ assets left seem to be safe with the new owner and in a safer jurisdiction like the KZ. May be gold should have a higher ev/ebitda mult than steel or "dirty" coal after all), so at ev/ebitda 10 it should be $9 per share, but Barrick is like 6-7 ev/ebitda. I have zero Poly shares and don't buy or sell any, this is just a view. Evraz Plc situation is way-way worse than Polymetal's for foreign shareholders. Here you at least got the Kazakhstan part of the business that is worth something, in Evraz the out-of-Russia (Canada, etc.) part of the business is a zero.
first news is that the eso asset stripping list is almost here (this is from the paid version of rus bloomberg analog):
moscow. february 9th 2024. interfax - the first edition of the list of economically significant organizations (ezo) may be published as early as february 2024, first deputy minister of economic development of the russian federation ilya torosov told interfax on the sidelines of the all-russian debt restructuring forum organized at the site of the chamber of commerce and industry of the russian federation.
"the first stage is less than ten (companies)," said torosov, specifying the number of organizations that will be included in this version of the document.
earlier, officials explained that the document would not be static, the list could be adjusted and supplemented.
in russian legislation, mention of ezo appeared in the summer of 2023 after the adoption of law no. 470-fz, which gave the government the authority to form a list of such organizations. the document has not been published yet.
the status of ezo allows their russian beneficiaries to obtain shares and assets of such companies in direct ownership through the court, excluding foreign holding structures (ihcs) from the chain of ownership, or transfer the right to them to someone else.
second news:
i don’t want to be in politics but from what i saw in uk, a lot of people think that the sanctions will end as the hot war ends. i honestly don’t think so. russian state media and top officials post things like this all day long (this one is medvedev): russia threatens to unleash ‘entire ****nal on london if it loses war in ukraine’. i seriously doubt that the sanctions will be lifted until a mayor change in russia, which is at least in 2042 when putin might step down.
third news: polymetal plc sold it’s russian assets. there is a strange configuration, but in the end the sale is for the debt and 300 mln usd, so in essence the money for the plc shareholders is very low, almost zero for 60% of the plc company’s assets. as you might guess they sold it to an absolutely (wink) unrelated russian guy. i honestly think evraz plc would have done the same if not for the convenient eso law.
buying/selling evraz plc shares. if you want to sell write me at chinaadr2021 at yandex.ru you must have the paper certificate. price is 0.8 gbp. minimum amount 8000 shares. only !sane! people. i am a rus citizen so i plan to have my shares esoed, otherwise i would run. if the eso list with evraz plc in it is released, then i don’t buy and the new shares are a zero to me from that moment.
To write private messages here you need to be a premium customer - 30 usd a month a something. I am a premium customer here so those who want to sell - just spend the 30 dollars for a 1 month premium customer if you want. It is not ideal but still better than nothing.