The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
I see no value for Evraz PLC mayor sanctioned shareholders in resuming trading anywhere until sanctions are lifted from them that is until Putin steps down, that is until at least 2042. And with the 470 Russian law about forcefully re-incorporation of the Evraz PLC to a Russian entity with the assets removed from the PLC into the new Evraz Russia resuming trading of the "empty" PLC shares would make absolutely no sense.
ANDERYAA, the closest you've ever been to Russia is a bottle of smirnof, so zero, your a puppet for a naked short, poly got a bit expensive did it?
Tonnacombe, I am right now in Russia. I have no position whatsoever in Polymetal. Poly is a different story from Evraz, they are not sanctioned on the PLC level and they will be selling the Rus assets. The price of Poly shares depends on the asset sale price. I have no idea what it will be. But one Evraz seller has sold me Evraz and bought Poly at 3,8 usd. I think it is a smart move to exchange Evraz to Polymetal.
1. The list of economically significant organizations to be forcefully moved back to Russia under 470 law still has not been released. The main reason for this in my opinion is the Yandex situation. Yandex is the “Russian Google” wannabe so it is a very complicated and politicized matter. You can read this story in depth on Forbes dot ru in Russian only. The Yandex deal has moved to 1q2024 so the list which should include all the companies has moved also.
I still think that for Evraz and for FIVE_X5 the destiny of going back to Russia and abandoning the Evraz PLC is inevitable. Right now Evraz PLC even can’t have an office in UK, they rent a essentially PO Box to receive mail. Think about it.
470FZ law from august2023 is about taking the assets from foreign companies like Evraz PLC and giving them to a new Russian based company. I think they have changed the law a little bit in late Dec2023, but anyways for foreign shareholders it means being frozen in Russia until the sanctions are lifted that is than Putin leaves that is 2042. If you are ready to wait - great. Ending the war is not lifting the sanctions unfortunately(
2. Since the open antiRussian hate in the telegram groups which claim to be Evraz plc share oriented we have created our own group Evraz 2024 sane people only. You can post your bids and offers in it if you want to buy or sell the shares. The only thing that we won’t tolerate is calling Russian people derogatory terms and words which in the previous groups to me was common. You should respect people despite different views on the share price and always be ready to tell the same thing in person as you say to someone online.
3. Since the deadline has moved to I don’t know when I can buy some more shares at $1 or 0,8 GBP. Minimum amount of shares is 8000, you MUST have a paper certificate and be sane and cooperative. I am the only person buying them and actually finishing the deals. 12 people sold and got the money in December2023 alone so I am not so anxious to buy more, but since I have all the infrastructure in place we can discuss. Write me here or in the telegram group Evraz 2024 sane people only.
4. Common questions – why you buy if the stock is a zero? I live in Russia, I HOPE to get the shares in the new Russian based Evraz company although it is not certain. Are you real? Yes, I am. Can you pay me a lot more per share? No, there are a lot of risks involved for me in the process. I am mostly looking for sellers with 100 000++ shares, may go a little higher for them. North America and EU assets? 10 years no profit, 2022 only profit, I value them at below Evraz PLC debt. Dividends/buyback on the Evraz PLC? The major shareholders are sanctioned to death, it is super-stupid to think they will pay YOU and freeze the money due to sanctions for themselves, they are smart people.
Well in any case Evraz PLC shareholders will get zero since Rus oligarchs will get nothing until the sanctions are lifted and they won't be lifted until Putin is out. And he stays until 2042. So we are together till 2042.
Https://www.evraz.com/upload/iblock/802/EVRAZ_H1_2022_financial_results_presentation_.pdf
page 14 tells you all about debt. 3 958 usd mln debt on 30/06/2022, 86% of which is in USD. I seriously doubt that they took a lot of their bank debt from Rus banks in USD and not in rubles. So my guess is that at least 2 bln USD western debt to be repaid by NA assets which is impossible since Russia is not connected any longer, while most of free money and business is in Russia. And even by miracle if they get out of bankruptcy a buyback? to buy YOU out and leave no money for themselves? that will never happen, they would rather leave the money waiting for sanctions lifted in 2040 then give it out.
1. There is an article in the Financial Times today that “G7 moves closer to seizing Russian assets for Ukraine” https://www.ft.com/content/918645f8-e0b6-4cab-92fa-4f965569c2a6
As you probably understand that means that Russia in return moves closer to seizing all western property in Russia, i.e. Evraz PLC Russian assets. As one seller told me – the rift between the countries is getting wider with no sign of easing. Putin also said in his press-conference that the war will be till the end no matter what. Sanctions on North Korea, Siria, Cuba, Iran, USSR all lasted for decades and in some cases for more than 50 years. Putin stays in power until at least 2042.
2. I still value Evraz NA assets at 1 bln maximum (no free cash flow and losses for many-many years except 2022 – see previous weekly update for numbers), that does not cover the debt on Evraz PLC (1,5-3 bln USD depending how much money is debt within Russia).
So as soon as I get the Russian part of the assets under the 470 Rus law that takes the Russian assets from Evraz PLC (90% of all plc assets) and gives it to Rus citizens like me I will be selling my several hundred thousand Evraz PLC shares at 1 USD (0,8 pounds). Since there are no buyers, this will be the price for years to come.
3. Putin has told in his June 2023 speech that the “returning home” of the Rus companies abroad should be finished by the Rus Gov by 31/12/2023, so I plan to stop buying on 22th of December 2023. If you don’t want to lose your money you’d better hurry up. My main risk is missing the registry for the split to Rus and non-Rus assets so I need to close the deals before the deadline.
4. If you have a lot of shares – we can make a deal where you sell me the shares and can buy them back after I receive the Rus assets. I value Evraz plc at very low without Rus assets so I don’t need it afterwards. This way you get some money “dividend” from me and retain your shares with Evraz NA assets.
I still buy at $1 per share (minimum 8000 shares and you must have the paper certificate and be sane and cooperative), write me a direct message here or on the ADFVN forum https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/evraz-EVR/share-price?java=1
It us very funny to read as you list all very bad of company but you like to buy its share? How is that logical? Thinking of different way and just remind you all peoples over 18 years old and take part on share dealing not children . Of couse you can write whatever you like but convincing people sell thier shares is kind of trick as nobody interested that way.
i have answered this question a 100 times already. I will get the Rus assets thru the 470 law in Russia. It is not available option for foreigners, only for Rus citizens. If you followed Evraz news you would know there is a law in Russia that will strip Evraz PLC of its assets in Russia and giving it to Rus residents.
Thought to write on Monday, but have a little time now:
1. Putin has re-elected himself to be the president of Russia for 6 more years - you probably saw the news. This means the sanctions are here to stay for at least 6 more years. I personally think that he will rule till he is at least ninety, so 2042 is the time he realistically would step down and probably the sanctions gone. There are no elections so i don't see him gone earlier.
2. Ukraine ceasefire/peace options - if you think of any outcome they all continue the sanctions. Ukraine defeat = 100% sanctions, ceasefire = Russia retains new territories = sanctions, Russia's defeat would mean a 100% new attempt in 1-3 years so still sanctions.
3. Evraz has decided to pay for holders of the eurobonds IN RUSSIA it's 2024 700 mln usd eurobond payments. Foreign holders are still getting zero.
Payment is only with "хранением в российских депозитариях" i.e. within Russia. I always thought they have money in Russia, but the PLC is empty except for the Evraz NA assets, so I calculated them - see 4.
4. So I saw into Evraz North America reports to see “amazing” results of the “amazing” assets. They are even worse than I thought!
2014 last good year made 100-150 mln free cash flow
2015 minus 100-150 mln cash loss, survived because helped by the Russian assets
2016 minus 200 mln cash loss, survived because helped by the Russian assets
2017 minus 100 mln cash loss, survived because helped by the Russian assets
2018 minus 150 mln cash loss, survived because helped by the Russian assets
2019 minus 100 mln cash loss, survived because helped by the Russian assets
2020 minus 150 mln cash loss, survived because helped by the Russian assets
2021 50 mln cash PLUS! Makes some money!!!
2022 200 mln cash PLUS! Makes some money even after investment % and taxes!!!
So 10 years minus 450 mln USD negative cash flow. I still think that NA assets don’t cover the debt (3 bln USD of the last Evraz presentation) and existed only as an addition to Rus business that will be no longer there to help.
I still advise you all to read the asset stripping law to understand that there will be no dividends and no compensation until all the sanctions are lifted which is never (i.e. 2040s).
i still buy at $1 per share (minimum 8000 shares and you must have the paper certificate and be sane and cooperative), write me a direct message here or in telegram
@andrey It won't let me view the message as I am not a premium member. Is there another way
advfn forym - my name is Andrey AAA there as well, they have free messaging
https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=26795278
Logically speaking the price you paid for something should not in the slightest influence the price you are selling for. It is just a phycological trick your mind plays that the price you have paid really-really matters. In reality it should not matter if you are logical. If somebody sold you fake gold for 500 pounds. You can sell it for 20 pounds or carry it around for the rest of your life trying to sell for 505 pounds. Most people would carry it around and be very upset when people tell them it is fake despite the fact that they know it is fake)
Have over 24300 shares bought when it 60p
so when it was 60 pennies it was a great fair price but now one and a half years latter I offer 80 pennies for the new Evraz without 90% of its 2022 assets and the price is not fair. Well well well.
Andreyyyyyyy you can have my shares for £1, not $1 but £1. Let me know if interested?
it all depends on the amount of shares you have and your deal-ability. The more shares the better. Write me a direct message please and anyone else who wants to sell please do so. It is called Private Messaging here. Two things to consider - 1. You have to have a paper certificate, if you are held at the broker with no cert it won't work 2 Minimum amount I consider is 8000 shares
Andrey - all know your game. Go away and look for another share….
truth hurts that much? If you want someone to blame for your financial loss it is definitely should not be me. I did absolutely nothing bad by telling it as it is. You see it otherwise - that's fine, but you could be wrong. Foreigners lost an insane amount of money in emerging markets mainly cause they understand little about the countries and are the last to know the bad news. I remember when I started foreigners were buying Yukos when the top Putin general had already said that they would bankrupt them. Foreigners were buying with reasoning like "but the law says otherwise who cares about the general, the finances and audit are fine!!!". Of course they lost 100%.