Member Info for Andrew4444

LS Agreed. But another factor which doesnt help is lack of trust and confidence with some of what CB says. He made an unequivocal announcement in the 1 Aug pod cast that ...... When we pass a significant milestone I�ll let you know. I�ll take you through the 100, 200, 300, 400 (increase in output) as and when we do it. If we have any �leg overs� on the way when things don�t go quite right�.you will be told. This is an open book now. What you get now is transparency, the absolute truth for better or worse. Well we have had, as you say, a slow and faltering start (understandably - these things happen) but he hasnt done what he said he was going to do above. The market still doesnt trust everything he says. They want to see the money. I think this will, eventually, come good (20p in 2 years) but it will take longer than some may think. Not least of all due to CBs poor comms.

LS They were mentioned a while ago but as almost the same co as Omnia. Omnia/Moz Gold havnt done much but I dont think you can assess Moz Gold as a separate entity until their December deal was signed. They now appear to have been decoupled from Omnia. I think they will have done a lot since then and Q1 results will hopefully show this. I think it will all be fine but may take until Q2 results before we start to see sp move. By then you will be saying, this all adds up now :) I hope !

LW The Moz gold agreement was signed in December so you cant say they have not been doing anything until we see the Q1 results this month. To do alluvials ourselves would mean buying equipment, employing people etc. Much cheaper and better to contract out the work and take less risk. CB is using Moz to increase the % alluvial income levels that we get. (hence equity stake option) It does all add up to me :)

May be of interest. Not too sure if link will work. If not then replace ****** with word s h a r e p r o p h e t s https://www.*************.com/views/35187/gold-a-few-observations

Itsadjuster Yep, spot on. CB emphasised that point a few times in presentations / pod casts and said it would take about 6 months before the market fully prices in alluvial income levels. That does seem, to me anyway, to be commonsense. Others may not agree, and they may be right, but I'll go with CB and his 50 years mining experience :) For clarity, I don't think CB was ever claiming he knows what the sp would be in the future or exactly what the market would do. Just a general point that, for the reasons you've explained well, alluvial income takes time to be fully priced in.

Weapon I'm not making it complicated , just repeating what Colin has said many times. You may be right and he may be wrong. You've got me a bit worried now, may be Colin doesnt know as much as he claims :)

Ammu Yes that will smooth things out. To avoid confusion, the way the market sees alluvial income (early part anyway) is not what I am saying should be the case - its the way it is (as Colin has already stated). Colin has said that that the market will start to price in alluvial income after about 6 months of income.

Bob That was the word that should have gone in to my link below where the ********* were.

s h a r e p r o p h e t s

*************

Weapon The amount of alluvial income has to be inconsistent, by its very nature. Yes we will always get some income each month (so its consistent in that way), but the market cant price that in if its inconsistent in amount. ie $100K then $500K then $125K etc The view that the market doesnt like inconsistent alluvial income was also stated by Colin at the investor show (see below at 11.50 and 16.44. https://www.*************.com/views/28549/video-colin-bird-of-xtract-resources-presents-at-uk-investor-show-2017 In addition this point was re emphasised at the online pod cast in June / July. He said something like, we need 6 months consistent alluvial income before the market will price in alluvial income.

Stevens For the record I think this will be 20p in 2 years so trading it is fine, as long as you can get back in !! It may be that once we are above 4p its off on a bull run. ie SOLG. Ammu Yep it will break, just dont know when ! May take hard rock news to break cycle. Market doesnt like alluvial income as its all a bit random and inconsistent. But it still income ! Weapon Yes I am assuming Moz $92K money is guaranteed in figures due to what was said in RNS

Weapon My thinking is that the last quarter was $320K and that was start-up with problems and only really covered 2 months. In addition we should be guaranteed $92K as a minimum, from Moz under agreed payments. Ammu Q4 update was 25th Jan. I would think update between 15 and 25 April. Stevensd If the income is $400K or more, I can't see the sp dropping. In fact I will predict that the sp will spike on news, then over the next 2 to 7 days retrace 50% + of gains. I know some on here dont agree with me. but this is why I consider this to be traders share at the moment. When this breaks I think it will have a bull run similar to SOLG Dec 15 to June 17. You couldnt trade that pattern easily. Or it would be very risky to do. At the moment this is going up and down like a yo yo.

Stock Life That was my estimate. It may be wrong and others may well have a different view- which could prove to be more accurate. IMHO I would say. Less than $450K - Very dissapointing $450K to $550K - Disappointing $550K to $650K - Expected $650K to $750K - Good $750K + Very good Income not profit If the results arnt as good as I expect in Q1, it will just be a slight blip. All I really want to see is income increasing each quarter. I'm sure they will be excellent by Q4 no matter what Q1 results are.

JDAU Thanks for the info. I was aware that there was a bit of a difference between Troy oz but as there were many other variables in my calcs I didn't think it was that significant. As you say, it was just back of fag calc. Revised Q1 est now circa $600K I'll use Troy oz in any future calcs

O and W Not too sure if you would have to have 10 year + sustainable income before you could apply a PE. As non of the Hard Rock mines have a life, as yet, over 10 years then, by that logic you could not est SP using a PE for any of the future income. I would estimate max alluvial yearly profit end of the year to be �5M to �7M (� not $). This is after all costs and tax. I think a PE of 5 is more realistic so sp would be about 7p to 10p when alluvial income was at capacity end of the year. With all hard rock mines up and running in 18 months to 2 years and income at max, I would estimate sp to be x 3 against alluvial income ie 20p to 30p. That's assuming all goes to plan. It may not.

Stocklife Latest cost figures Mozambican alluvial operational costs for the Period amounted to US$254,000 (attributable 40% to Xtract and 60% to Nexus) So that's $100K a quarter to Xtract = $35K a month. Obviously costs will be higher in Q4. I would guess costs would be between $100K to $150K a month at $750K to $1M a month income..

LS That was a month not quarter. Unless you think it will be more than $750K a month by Q4. If so, you could be right.

I was getting bored so I thought I�d try and estimate the Q1 income figures. Sino + Moz. SINO ESTIMATED MONTHLY INCOME Sino Method 1 We will receive a total of 7.6% of all gold produced from sino. Rough Calculations... 200tph x 20hrs x 25days = 100,000tpm x 0.5g/pt = 50,000g/pm = (1764oz) = $2,310,840 (@ $1310oz). 7.6% of $2,310,840= $175k per month by Sino to Xtr using this method. Sino Method 2 From RNS Period up to 30 November. $230,000 to Xtract and Nexus. 40% to Xtract. Therefore, $92,000 to Xtract. Period 1 October to 31 December 2017. $320,000 to Xtract. We know from Colin�s latest pod cast that Moz did not produce any gold last year so all of the December income of $228K ($320K less $92K) must have been ALL from Sino. So $228K per month (December) by Sino to Xtr using this method. Both methods show a broadly similar monthly figure of circa $200K a month from Sino at 200 tph. Moz ESTIMATED INCOME From RNS A minimum of 2.25kg gold in March. = 79 oz = $103,490 (at $1310) 40% to Xtract.) = $41,000 First penalty payment no later than 29 March $130,000. 40% to Xtract = $52,000 So combined minimum total $93,0000 in March from Moz. Therefore Q1 estimated income. Sino $200K x 3 months = $600K Moz $92K from just March. Total estimate $692K Q1 income. Even if the Sino figures are lower at $175K a month, total Q1 income should be more than $600K. Whatever it is in Q1, you can see how the ramp-up in processing and hopefully, Moz equity stake, will substantially increase the quarterly income over Q2, Q3 and Q4. I think $750K alluvial income a month is realistic by Q4. We shall see.

Mine are: 1. xtr, 2. xtr and 3. oh yes xtr :)