Member Info for Andrew4444

Ghost Yes its confusing and not clear. My take is this 35Million stated was a mistake should have said 35,000 1300 x 35000 = 45.5M he got mental maths wrong and said 35M He then 60 as in 60% net so xtr after costs - came to 20M circa then took 20% of that getting $4M If he had used 45M (correct figure) then with his 60% net figure (after costs) it would have come to 27M. Take 15% of this (not 20%) then also = $4M. Depending on what % cut you use it come out at $3M to $5M. He was just giving indicative figure and probably by luck his $4M figure net is probably not far off. That's my take anyway.

O and W I think that;s a good point re gold price. We have been selling for just over $1000. Still, even at that price, it would appear alluvial income, according to CE post, would not be insignificant and broadly similar to FB income. Maybe a bit less than FB.

You may be right. It was a bit top of your head calc by CB. See vid. Of course if you are right, then the alluvial income would probably be more than FB income (according to CE.'s post re likely alluvial income)

Ghost That's with xtr taking 15% to 20% cut and net profit. Not 100% He explains it in vid presentation.. As we are now only going to get a smallish cut of FB the alluvial income is proportionally higher. Probably at least, 50% of FB.

CE Many thanks for that clarification. I must admit that looks much better than my understanding from listening to Colin at the presentation (vid). Colin definitely said, combined figures, so I assumed that was not just from sino. From what you say, our income from M block could be much higher than from Sino due to the different arrangement and because we are taking a higher cut of profits. it would seem likely we would get a minimum of ($168K) $84K x 2 each month. Could well be nearer $250K a month with the better deal in M block and for the other reasons you have stated. What is interesting is that Colin estimated the FB income at about $4M a year at the presentation. That's $330K a month. From what you have said, alluvial monthly income would be at least 50% of FB monthly income and possibly nearer 75% of the FB income. Maybe alluvial income isn't such a side show as some may think ! Many thanks for info.

Capital You don't know because it can be taken either way. No one knows and that's the problem. 25KG net to xtract or 0.4 of 25 kg makes a big difference. This is hardly minutia of detail ! No clarity again.

Daz Here is vid if you couldnt find it. He uses the word 'company' at 10.10. Is that referring to Explorator or Xtract. Big difference. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=776&v=fmrAJ3Bt4HM

Daz What I meant was when CB announced the number of Oz / kg he doesnt state to who? It could be hes referring to the total amount, or it could be he's referring to Xtr share. In the presentation he stated Kg of gold per month to 'the company'. That could mean Exporator or could be Xtract. If he means Co = Explarator then we get 40% of the gold he stated.

The other very confusion issues (to me anyway) is when gold recovery declared. Is it total by Contractors Explorator or Xtr's The headline figure could be very impressive, but its not always clear what WE get.

'the Moz loan came out of that last placing money and the placing money was considered cashflow' That was my conclusion. How placing money is considered cash flow is anyone's guess! With that comment and the $320K 'Income' that wasn't, its not surprising many have trust and confidence issues with CB. His 'warts and all' and 'open book' comments in the 1 August pod cast are not now a good listen. All that said, I still believe this will 3 or 4 bag from here. Added more today at sub 2p.

IWTO We are only working 1/5th of FB so there is great potential for upside IF we dig down. But as you say, that requires a DFS, but also money and time. As it stands now, with what we know (or think we know !) I would say 8 to 10p is realistic maximum. 3 or 4 bag, so not bad at all.

H50 Because of all the problems you rightly identified with alluvial Q1, I expect the alluvial income to substantially increase over the next 6 months. Probably by a factor of 10 to 20. Very impressive increase. Problem is, that's from a base of $8K a month profit ! CB said himself at the presentation, when up an running per month min 25KG gold to 50KG (in very good months). This gets us a net profit of $100K to $200k a month, probably $150K a month. Not bad that. Much better than $8K a month, but noting like the 320K figure he stated in 11 July RNS. And nothing like a lot thought it could have been. btw If anyone talks to a CEO and is not impressed by what they have to say, then the CEO is not very good at their job. IMHO.

LW I don't think some appreciate the importance of the alluvial income in unlocking the full potential of FB. Its not just about getting less alluvial profit. Should still 3 or 4 bag from here, but it could have been much more IMHO. I've already posted about the bizarre CB comment that $400K loan was from cash flow. Comments like that dont do CB any favours. If it was from cash flow then we need a new accountant and finance director !

On Xtract For what's worth..... The Mysterious Cities of Gold at Xtract Resources - more specifically the prospect of ever being cashflow positive. One of my many bugbears with Xtract over the years has been the somewhat confusing or ambiguous RNSs emanating from Colin Bird or Jan Nelson (in his day). Accordingly, I applaud, to some extent, Friday�s statement as it seemed clear if nothing else although it highlighted the fact that previous statements were misleading at best and, more importantly, generating positive cash flow for the business as a whole appears as far away as ever. Friday�s announcement set out the revenues and costs relating to the alluvials for both Q4 2017 and Q1 2018 and, for the first time, one was able to calculate clearly how much cash Xtract was generating. I calculated that in the six months to 31 March 2018, Xtract has made approximately $12,000! Yes, despite numbers being bandied around by Colin of $160,000 a month or more, the real number appears to be about $2,000 a month. Looking back at the January RNS relating to the Q4 numbers, I�m left to conclude that it was a tad misleading as it didn�t give one the impression that Xtract had actually lost cash in the quarter. Looking ahead, Q2 should be better now that the rains have eased; however, offsetting that, Omnia has decided that it no longer can be bothered and are pulling out of the arrangement. Also, one needs to remember that Xtract has lent $300,000 to Moz, one of the other contractors and I am not sure how that is going to be repaid in the short-term. Unsurprisingly, the share price dropped significantly on the news and closed on Friday at 2.1p valuing the business at �7 million. However, even if one assumes limited cash flow from alluvials, at least the various fund raises in 2017 have cleared out all the debt and should provide sufficient cash for the short-term and there is still the hope that Colin can pull off an interesting deal with Manica that just about justifies the current price. In fact listening to him at the UK Investor Show, I wouldn�t be surprised to hear some news re Manica or a new opportunity in Zimbabwe that could give the share price a nice pick-up from here.

LS Hopefully we'll both be singing when this hits 8p :) 28p would have been better, but I'm not greedy !

LS I agree that the main value has always been hard rock moreover Fairbride. But I'm wouldn't dismiss the alluvial's as a 'side show' or horderves as many have done. That 'side show' was pivotal in determining how much of the main course we got. As alluvials wont be as much as Colin thought (June RNS 360K a month), and substantially less than the possible potential, we are now going to get 15 to 20% of the main course not 100%. Its the unlocking of the total value of FB that the "side show" could have done. Not just the extra profit it could have produced. This is still a very good investment opportunity and I expect it will 3 or 4 bag from here. But it could have done so much more if that 'side show' has been better !!

IWTO 12 X short now is also my understanding. From CB comments in the presentation I estimated net alluvial profit to be circa $100K a month. Q1 showed $8K a month profit so 12 x 8 = circa $100K a month.

Gixxer I think what he's doing is very sensible. My view is that his intentions were to see how much alluvial income we would actually get to see if that could fund or part fund FB - as he says, no one knows alluvial income levels until you dig. IMHO I think he's come to the conclusion alluvial income is not going to be great - his 25KG to 50KG a month comment support this. I can't see how we are going to come close to his original 320K a month income stated in June. So next option is to job out. If he could have part funded HR with alluvial income then we would be making much more profit from FB. This is why the level of alluvial income was, IMHO, more important than some have suggested. Its the unlocking of all of FB potential that was important. he's come to the conclusion we cant do this unless shareholders take massive risk and dilution. So no, he's not like Jan Nelson. Far from it ! We are now in a position were this should 3 or 4 bag with very little risk to shareholders. Yes SP potential could have been better - but this is not a bad place to be! IMHO

Correction May be �1.5 a year profit from non-FB

StockLife Many thanks. Very informative. One of the best colin's done for figures. Colin's figures FB $4M net profit = �3.2M profit a year Alluvials min monthly 25KG anything upto 50KG. Call it 35KG average So alluvial income should treble from latest figures as we did 37KG over last quarter. Profit should be $100K a month if its 35KG a month gold PE of 5 will see MC at 16M just from FB (3.2 x 5) May be �1.5 a year profit from non-HR �1m profit a year from alluvials at $100K a month profit Should see MC up to circa �25M in next 12 to 18 months = SP circa 8P