Member Info for AndItsGone

Well we may be making the same point then, that RIs aren't inherently bad once announced. And I 100% agree, and say so in all my comments, that TUI really do need to be more forthcoming on entitlements.
I'm not sure about tank on no deal , the drop in the pound may insulate many in the FTSE 100 from falling through the floor, and its not like many are starting from a high point either. Surely they will get a deal mind. It will be a catastrophic failure of statesmanship, and who would want to go back to their electorate and heap even more pain after covid because we cant agree over fish??

I may be out by a day or two. However the point stands that we didn't have to wait for the RI transaction to see massive growth, it was within a couple days. It was in response to Newby saying it doubled AFTER the RI.
I certainly agree the market hates uncertainty which is why I wish Tui was more forthcoming. But if people wait for absolute certainty then the opportunity for good returns may have already gone, as with RR; or you may get a better one, as with IAG. I think with the end of the pandemic coming any swings will be much smaller now; My own opinion is small SP decrease in the run up to EGM is most likely due to uncertainty, but with scenes of mass vaccination centers and I presume a brexit deal and lifting of travel restrictions, who knows, maybe even a small increase could happen. I don't need every last % profit though, and am quite confident Tui will do very well next year.

Incorrect. rolls was taken down 10% a day BEFORE the RI. It was the uncertainty that killed them. As soon as the RI was announced the trading arms of the underwriters absolutely torched the shorters, some if whom even had absurd 3x leveraged short postions on rolls at a quid! That's why it doubled in a week, BEFORE the RI. Check the dates. IAG fell after the RI and almost met the price of the RI postion. So it didnt work out for a month or so, but so long as your patient it worked out for everyone in the end as IAG are now in a good postion. Neither situation can be compared to Tui. Not least because the shorters are closing their positions now and the end of the pandemic is a matter of months away.
What I would have preferred is for tui to be more upfront with the entitlements, because it's difficult for people to take a position when you don't know how much extra you will be asked for. Uncertainty will not help people to buy in, though that is going to collide with a lot of incoming good news. My guess is a very small decline into December, with a very big rise next year. It is though, only my opinion.

Apologies lets try,
You are right. I am doing rather well on those two , but part of the reason is they were dragged so low to begin with. With IAG it actually took weeks after the RI for the SP to resurface. I do not intend to mis lead anyone, but i almost sold RR and it may be helpful for some people to read an example where the RI wasn't the end of the world, I knew it would have helped me during RR . I stand by my statement that so far I've not lost out via a RI. There is risk here. There's a chance this could fall further than 10%ish which i expected, we are on the brink of it already.
But rather than water down everything I said, there were the same comments back during RR about the company going bust. Tui really only has to get to the spring and holidays will surge, which I expect 1.8bn will do

Let's try,
Find where I said its risk free or easy? I did not buy either at the highs I admit but I still participated fully in both. It took a lot of courage to be in those shares pre RI. RRs got took down to a quid before it announced its RI. Afterwards theres barely been a red day. Both LTHs and more recent holders have benefited hugely because the company was strengthened. Everyone seems terrified of a RI but I can only tell you as a find, I've made massive losses before them and sacks after them.
I've backed my view with experience. If you want guaranteed money maybe you should have a look at a savings account. Of course there's risk but nobody made any money without it.

A 5-10% drop is to be expected as people who don't have the money to participate bail(not sure why as tui always said there's a RI coming), SP stabilises and then back up. Making heaps on RR and IAG post RI because it strengthens the company past a temporary hurdle. This actually takes less courage than those two because the end of the pandemic is in sight now. Fail to see how adding liquidity is anything other than good, and confirms the German government has got their back. There's an avalanche of holidays coming from spring/summer 21 onwards. Fair play to anyone who got out at 5 pounds but it's my belief you've left some money on the table. l'm looking at greater things, just like RR and IAG. People probably just need to open their investment horizon up a couple years and look past a couple weeks volatility.

Sounds very similar to the deal given to Lufthansa, which got them out if trouble. Got to give it to the Germans, they really back their businesses. The more you read the more you realise it's only adding liquidity and strength, with favourable terms that you just wish was availiable to british firms. Wonder if state aid allows this, but they waved it through for luthansa. Boris take note. And with mass vaccination starting Monday.

With a RI of 509m equity raise and an mcap of 2.8bn, thats approx just under 20% of current equity being offered in new shares. That can give you a rough idea of your entitlement to the new shares. That may be to simplistic as I don't know what silent convertable and non covertable participation into shares means. RR and IAG were much more forthcoming when they announced their RIs.

I do hope it's a RI, which is what they have said they said they would do all along. A placing would be highly frustrating. But i cant find any dates or entitlements which is a concern.

Could happen, though my experince suggests the SP will probably drop a couple % over the next couple days people who dont have the money for rights drop out. This should be limited to a few % because tui have always stated there would be a RI on SP improvement, and all the big shareholders have commited to the new equity, meaning i would be suprised if theres a large drop.

Compeltely agree. It's crucial to take up as many of your rights as possible to stop dilution, which I did with RR and IAG. It's hard to see how it could have gone better. I do feel for people who held at pre pandemic highs, but without the RI the companys would likely be insolvent so there was no choice. With it the LTH shareholders stand a chance.
Tui have always been up front about the need for a RI once things improve, so I kept a bit back for such a purpose. Hopefully others have done the same.

Suprised and a shame to hear that it didn't work for you.
Receiving a mountain of RR shares at 0.32 was incredible and has paid me handsomely. And the RI sured up RR finances and stopped the daily SP decline. In my experience the RI gave me an opportunity to get shares at a price that will never be seen again. As far as I can tell the only people that lost out would have been the people who sold before the RI.
I wonder if the same will happen here. As my only experience of RIs is making stupid amounts of money whislt improving company finances, I'm always happy to hear to other points of view.

Which ones keep calm? I'm always looking to learn. The two I went through with RR and IAG I'm now making sacks of money a day on.
Examples of bad ones will keep me from maybe being to blaise here.

The shareholders are the company, the interests really are the same. I wouldn't get to worried that the BOD are looking to sevretly screw you, this is purely about liquidity until the summer. The vaccines are here and normality by spring, I do think it would be a shame if people get spooked out of their shares at this stage after holding through the dark times, but we must all make our decisions.
The RI has been backed to the by the large shareholders. Mordashov is committed to the extra equity, and he doesn't become a billionaire by torching money on bust companies.
What has annoyed me is I can't seem to find what the entitlement is, which makes it hard to budget for the RI. Does anyone have any details? It could be I'm being daft.

If you sold nearly all at 521, it's us that should be asking for your advice, well done.
History with RI is it normally goes down on the speculation, once announced (where we are) there's a couple of down days whilst people try and get out who don't want to commit any further money. Then it stabilises and goes back up.
My personal favourite is there's quite a few idiots that think the SP tanks when the new shares are issued. This never ever happens and is an arguement for another day.

Have they posted the RI entitlement?
I'm not at all bothered about a RI. Been through it with RR and IAG, both doing incredibly well now. I'd expect the SP to be far more solid this time with TUI, the visibility to the pandemic end is now known, investors were flying blind with RR and IAG.

Could prove to be a nicely timed buy there Doug. The Sp does seem oddly low and stubbornly resistant to recovery so far.

This is 20% down from it's pandemic high point, when hospitals were closed and no end in sight. Societies are being geared to full opening in a few months time, yet this is 1% + down every day. Trying to find any reason for it, when other industries affected by covid, such as tourism, are surging. Fundementally this seems a good company with plenty of demand.
I presume the mass bonfire that the directors are heaping their own shares onto hints there is something deeper here that I'm missing?

Suprised by the continued walk down of the price here. Continued good news of vaccines and economies opening up. Normal by easter is being described and S&N posted record revenues at the start of this year.
Sunak announcing and extra 3 billion to shift the back log in procedures. Whilst 50% of activity is US based, Biden is surely going to facilitate extra healthcare spending. Stryker has even recovered all of its losses and now posting new highs yet this dives down. One thing that doesn't help is the incessant RNS issues describing BOD sales, it's certainly starting to make me think twice.

Are solar panels and mass ev batteries/cars and charging infrstructure cheaper than oil?